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predictions for TCU game

  • asteroid
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5 years 3 months ago #1809 by asteroid
It doesn't get any easier than this.  The conference's last-place team on the
road at the conference's first-place team.  All remaining games (at least in
the regular season) will be more difficult.

Sagarin gives Kansas a 22.6 point margin, with a 99.3 percent probability of
winning the game.  Considering that the two teams average 144.7 points per game,
that suggests a final score of Kansas 84, TCU 61.  Kansas has been playing 1.6
points above expectation, while TCU has been playing 0.5 points below expectation,
which means that the margin for Kansas could be 24.8 points.  Kansas still has a
positive trend, despite Tuesday's loss, while TCU has a negative trend.  The
mental toughness ratings for both teams are virtually identical, but that means
Kansas plays better against weaker teams, and TCU plays worse against stronger
teams, so that statistic also works in the Jayhawks' favor.  Taken at face value,
the margin for Kansas becomes 29.6 points.  Kansas has not played any of its
games below expectation by more than 22.6 points, nor has TCU played any of its
games above expectation by more than 22.6 points, suggesting that it would an
upset of epic proportions for TCU to win.

Massey gives Kansas a 24.0 point margin, with a 98 percent probability of winning
the game.  His projected final score is Kansas 85, TCU 61.

Pomeroy has Kansas with the better adjusted offense by 17.9 units, as well as the
better adjusted defense by 7.0 units, which combine to a 24.9 units advantage for
Kansas.  With an average of 71.4 possessions per game, the margin for Kansas works
out to 17.8 points on a neutral court.  Add Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and the margin becomes 21.2 points.  The ratings suggest a score of Kansas 82, TCU 61.

Greenfield gives Kansas a 21.5 point margin, with a Vegas Implied final score
projection of 83.5 (you pick the rounding) to 62.  Among the key offensive stats,
Kansas has the advantage in six of eight categories; TCU gets a higher offensive
rebound percentage and also attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.
Among the key defensive stats, Kansas has the advantage in five of seven categories;
TCU gets more offensive rebounds per game, and the blocks per game statistic is a
wash.

Dunkel gives Kansas State a 23.5 point margin (yes, you read that right; Dunkel has
TCU playing at Kansas State; he also has Iowa State playing at Kansas State), and he
claims that a Vegas line is at 21.0 points (also with TCU against Kansas State), so
he is picking Kansas State against the spread.  With a total points projection
of 151, the implied final score is Kansas State 87, TCU 64.  Meanwhile, he claims the
Vegas total is 143.5, which would imply a final score of Kansas State 82, TCU 61.
Judging from the tabulated win-loss numbers, Dunkel's rankings are still way
out-of-date; Duke is his #1 team!  Let's see if Dunkel fixes his faux pas before game
time.

Real Time gives Kansas a 27.0 point margin, with a 91.6 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score depends on which web page you look at.
The schedule page has it as Kansas 87, TCU 60, while the Game Prediction Analysis
page has it as Kansas 89, TCU 62.

RPI rankings are now being taken from Collegiate Basketball News, generally
considered the most reliable of the various RPI ratings out there.  It is updated
only weekly, so don't expect to see any change in the rankings for Kansas since
the West Virginia game.

Dolphin gives Kansas a 22.5 point margin, with a 97.1 percent probability of
winning the game.  The projected final score is Kansas 85, TCU 62.

Whitlock's ratings differential is 24.9 units in favor of Kansas, but we need to
calibrate that differential.  Previously, I determined a scaling factor of 0.726
just before conference play began, and I'm planning to stick with that value for
consistency purposes.  That makes Kansas an 18.1 point favorite on a neutral court,
but after accounting for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage, Kansas becomes
the favorite by 21.5 points.

ESPN's BPI shows a points versus average differential of 14.7 points in favor of
Kansas on a neutral court; account for Sagarin's 3.4 point home court advantage,
and Kansas has an 18.1 point margin.

LRMC's web site isn't responding, so I was unable to look up the rankings for TCU.
I've left the previous rankings for Kansas in the table below.

Seven Overtimes gives Kansas a 15.0 point margin, corresponding to a 99 percent
probability of winning the game.  The projected final score is 80 to 65.

Crotistics gives Kansas a 21.3 point margin.  Intersting is that Crotistics has
Kansas, West Virginia, and Oklahoma ranked #1, #2, and #3.  Shades of Nebraska,
Oklahoma, and Colorado in football back in 1971, was it?

DPPI gives Kansas a 25.8 point margin.

There are two common opponents, both in conference:

KU  -11 WV  on road ( -7 neutral)
TCU  -8 WV  at home (-12 neutral)
KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral)

KU  +28 BU  at home (+24 neutral)
TCU -28 BU  on road (-24 neutral)
KU  +52 TCU at home (+48 neutral)

Those two are the most extreme of the various prognostications.  They average to
30.5 points.

Players to watch:  Guard Brandon Parrish plays the most minutes and that's it.  Forward
Vladimir Brodziansky scores the most points.  Forward Karviar Shepherd grabs the most
rebounds and blocks the most shots.  Guard Malique Trent is their leading thief, but
also commits the most turnovers and personal fouls.  Guard Dalton Dry is questionable
for the game, but averages only 5 minutes per game anyway.

The average of the various prognostications is 23.3 points in favor of Kansas.  The
projected final score would be Kansas 84, TCU 61.

Rock Chalk!

               =================================== Sagarin ====================================
               Rate    SoS    PP     GM    Rcnt   Perf   Inc.       Trend        Mental Tufness
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   --------------   --------------
Kansas         #  1   #  4   #  1   #  1   #  3   +1.6    8.4   +0.29 +/- 0.52   -0.14 +/- 0.19
TCU            #137   #185   #140   #134   #137   -0.5    9.8   -0.49 +/- 0.53   -0.13 +/- 0.19
 
               = Massey =   = Pomeroy =   Greenfield   Dunkel    Real Time    === RPI ===
               Rate   SoS   Rate    SoS   Rate   SoS    Rate    Rate    SoS   Rate    SoS
               ----  ----   ----   ----   ----  ----    ----    ----   ----   ----   ----
Kansas         #  3  #  4   #  2   # 10   #  1  #  1    # 14    #  1   #  5   #  3   #  6
TCU            #141  #126   #150   #271   #137  #112    # 83    #148   #192   #185   #241
 
               ======================= Dolphin ======================   =====    == DPPI ==
               Std.   Med.   Pre.   IRPI   RPI    Pair   Poll   Sched   Recrd    Rate   SoS
               ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   ----   -----   -----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  4   #  5   #  1   #  5   #  3   #  3   #  4   1.118   14-2     #  2  # 12
TCU            #148   #146   #150   #171   #175   #157   #148   0.084    9-7     #157  #267
 
               = Colley =     Whitlock      ESPN BPI     == LRMC ==    == 7OT ===    Crotistics
               Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS    Rate   SoS
               ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----    ----  ----
Kansas         #  5  #  4    #  1  # 21    #  8  # 59    #  5  # 17    #  4  #  6    #  1  #  1
TCU            #136  #198    #141  #106    #146  #101    #     #       #140  #128    #134  # 68

Here is Kansas' season; the season projection is currently at 26-5:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #311 Northern Colorado          109  72   +36.03    +0.97
NEUT   #  5 Michigan State              73  79    +1.63    -7.63
Div2        Chaminade                  123  72
NEUT   # 59 UCLA                        92  73   +12.81    +6.19
NEUT   # 15 Vanderbilt                  70  63    +4.45    +2.55
HOME   #282 Loyola-Maryland             94  61   +32.79    +0.21
HOME   #106 Harvard                     75  69   +20.01   -14.01
HOME   #265 Holy Cross                  92  59   +31.67    +1.33
HOME   # 62 Oregon State                82  67   +16.27    -1.27
HOME   #161 Montana                     88  46   +24.48   +17.52
AWAY   # 78 San Diego State             70  57   +10.26    +2.74
HOME   # 89 UC Irvine                   78  53   +18.23    +6.77
HOME   # 27 Baylor                     102  74   +10.83   +17.17
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                   109 106    +5.06    -2.06    3 overtimes
AWAY   # 50 Texas Tech                  69  59    +7.84    +2.16
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia               63  74    -2.86    -8.14
HOME   #140 TCU                                  +22.64             0.993
AWAY   # 84 Oklahoma State                       +10.93             0.879
HOME   # 41 Texas                                +13.77             0.917
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                            +4.16             0.690
HOME   # 28 Kentucky                             +10.88             0.867
HOME   # 39 Kansas State                         +13.57             0.951
AWAY   #140 TCU                                  +15.84             0.959
HOME   #  3 West Virginia                         +3.94             0.667
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                              -1.74             0.418
HOME   # 84 Oklahoma State                       +17.73             0.971
AWAY   # 39 Kansas State                          +6.77             0.796
AWAY   # 27 Baylor                                +4.03             0.653
HOME   # 50 Texas Tech                           +14.64             0.975
AWAY   # 41 Texas                                 +6.97             0.758
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                           +10.96             0.904

Here is TCU's season:
 
SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #321 SE Louisiana                90  77   +17.92    -4.92
HOME   #272 Houston Baptist             90  63   +12.82   +14.18
HOME   # 85 South Dakota State          67  76    -1.50    -7.50
NEUT   # 66 Rhode Island                60  66    -6.30    +0.30
NEUT   #173 Illinois State              71  60    +2.55    +8.45
HOME   # 12 SMU                         70  75   -12.54    +7.54
HOME   #255 Colgate                     76  49   +11.84   +15.16
AWAY   # 81 Washington                  67  92    -8.74   -16.26
HOME   #343 Prairie View A&M            73  55   +21.23    -3.23
HOME   #318 Abilene Christian           80  69   +17.57    -6.57
AWAY   #322 Bradley                     53  49   +11.14    -7.14
HOME   #349 Delaware State              75  47   +24.25    +3.75
AWAY   # 84 Oklahoma State              48  69    -8.31   -12.69
HOME   #  3 West Virginia               87  95   -15.30    +7.30
HOME   # 41 Texas                       58  57    -5.47    +6.47
AWAY   # 27 Baylor                      54  82   -15.21   -12.79
AWAY   #  1 Kansas                               -22.64             0.007
HOME   # 50 Texas Tech                            -4.60             0.288
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                            -8.28             0.182
AWAY   # 41 Texas                                -12.27             0.123
HOME   # 83 Tennessee                             -1.54             0.441
AWAY   #  6 Oklahoma                             -20.98             0.011
HOME   #  1 Kansas                               -15.84             0.041
HOME   # 84 Oklahoma State                        -1.51             0.440
AWAY   #  3 West Virginia                        -22.10             0.012
HOME   # 39 Kansas State                          -5.67             0.262
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                           -15.08             0.049
AWAY   # 50 Texas Tech                           -11.40             0.083
HOME   # 27 Baylor                                -8.41             0.219
AWAY   # 39 Kansas State                         -12.47             0.081
HOME   #  6 Oklahoma                             -14.18             0.060
The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, hairyhawk, jhawkgib, Bayhawk, porthawk, Illhawk

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5 years 3 months ago #1813 by Socalhawk
Thank you Asteroid , as always.
RCJGKU

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