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Big 12 projection, Round 4

  • asteroid
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5 years 3 months ago #1781 by asteroid

Texas won as expected at home, and Kansas State also won at home by 13 over Texas Tech,
which caused the Red Raiders to slip two spots in the projected standings behind both
Texas and Kansas State.  Kansas retains the top spot, but not by much.  If the
Mountaineers can pull off the upset in Norman, they will take over the top spot,
otherwise the Jayhawks will gain some breathing room.

Three really close games are projected for Round 5.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23  14.56    3  1   TCU (Sa)   KU  by 22.6
#  4  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81  14.53    4  0  @OU  (Sa)
#  6  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61  13.47    3  1   WV  (Sa)   OU  by  2.3
# 28  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76  10.21    3  1  @TT  (Sa)   BU  by  0.3   projected road win
# 29  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90   8.36    1  3  @KSU (Sa)   
# 41  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99   7.43    2  2   OSU (Sa)   UT  by  7.6
# 40  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64   7.16    1  3   ISU (Sa)   KSU by  0.8
# 50  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22   6.59    1  3   BU  (Sa)
# 85  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74   4.83    1  3  @UT  (Sa)
#141  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10   2.86    1  3  @BU  (Sa)

Real Time and yours truly with the Big 12 home court advantage shared honors for best
prognostications in Round 4.  DPPI gets honorable mention.  Greenfield has taken the
season lead marginally over Sagarin, with Seven Overtimes bringing up the rear.

Predictions                                                                                               Reality  
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  
          Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI           
UT  > ISU  0.5  -2.0  -1.5  -1.5   1.0  -2.5   6.0   1.4  -1.3  -1.8  -3.0  -0.8   0.2   2.1   1.8  -2.0      3    
WV  > KU   1.6   1.0  -0.9  -2.5  -3.5  -1.0  -1.0   1.9  -0.1   2.4   2.0  -0.8   2.1   4.0  -4.3   3.5     11    
KSU > TT   3.3   4.0   2.5   3.5  -1.0   3.5   8.0   2.7   1.9   1.5  -2.0   0.9   2.3   4.1   0.4   5.4     13    
OU  > OSU 10.4  11.0  10.3   8.0   6.0   9.0   8.0   9.6  12.4  11.0   6.0  11.0  12.3  10.4   8.9   8.3      2    
BU  > TCU 13.8  14.0  13.6  13.0  14.5  12.5  17.0  12.5  11.3  10.2   7.0   8.7  14.4  16.2  12.8  15.9     28    

Error       1                       1           +                                         +     1
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
          Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Real  Dolp  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Crot  Aste  A-HC  Trnd  DPPI
           2.5   5.0   4.5   4.5   2.0   5.5   3.0   1.6   4.3   4.8   6.0   3.8   2.8   0.9   1.2   5.0
           9.4  10.0  11.9  13.5  14.5  12.0  12.0   9.1  11.1   8.6   9.0  11.8   8.9   7.0  15.3   7.5
           9.7   9.0  10.5   9.5  14.0   9.5   5.0  10.3  11.1  11.5  15.0  12.1  10.7   8.9  12.6   7.6
           8.4   9.0   8.3   6.0   4.0   7.0   6.0   7.6  10.4   9.0   4.0   9.0  10.3   8.4   6.9   6.3
          14.2  14.0  14.4  15.0  13.5  15.5  11.0  15.5  16.7  17.8  21.0  19.3  13.6  11.8  15.2  12.1

total     44.2  47.0  49.6  48.5  48.0  49.5  37.0  44.1  53.6  51.7  55.0  56.0  46.3  37.0  51.2  38.5
prev      89.0  87.0  85.5  84.5  98.5  84.5 114.0  90.6  86.8  92.0 109.0  89.8 100.7 101.8 100.3  94.3
cumul    133.2 134.0 135.1 133.0 146.5 134.0 151.0 134.7 140.4 143.7 164.0 145.8 147.0 138.8 151.5 132.8
per gm     6.7   6.7   6.8   6.7   7.3   6.7   7.6   6.7   7.0   7.2   8.2   7.3   7.3   6.9   7.6   6.6

Just one road win was projected in Round 4, and the Round went as projected.  Only one road win
is projected for Round 5, namely Baylor at Texas Tech, but it is by no means a sure thing.

Road wins ( 5 out of 20)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
2 West Virginia   KSU TCU             0 Baylor                                 +2 West Virginia 
1 Baylor          ISU                 0 Kansas                                 +1 Baylor        
1 Kansas          TT                  0 Oklahoma                               +1 Kansas        
1 Oklahoma        OSU                 0 Texas                                  +1 Oklahoma      
0 Iowa State                          0 West Virginia                           0 Texas         
0 Kansas State                        1 Iowa State      BU                     -1 Iowa State    
0 Oklahoma State                      1 Kansas State    WV                     -1 Kansas State  
0 TCU                                 1 Oklahoma State  OU                     -1 Oklahoma State
0 Texas                               1 TCU             WV                     -1 TCU           
0 Texas Tech                          1 Texas Tech      KU                     -1 Texas Tech    

Texas Tech slipped a little in the consistency statistic, playing almost 9 points below
expectation against Kansas State; now their home win over Pine Bluff is showing a bit
more than 10 points above expectation, their first double-digit departure from
expectation.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +2.42    Texas Tech        6.02    Texas Tech      +0.34 +/- 0.36    Iowa State      +0.19 +/- 0.17
Kansas          +1.64    Kansas State      7.97    Kansas          +0.27 +/- 0.51    Oklahoma State  +0.16 +/- 0.22
Oklahoma        +1.39    Iowa State        8.37    Kansas State    +0.22 +/- 0.44    Kansas State    +0.14 +/- 0.16
Texas Tech      +0.78    Kansas            8.38    Oklahoma State  +0.20 +/- 0.57    Oklahoma        +0.10 +/- 0.20
Iowa State      +0.28    Oklahoma          8.48    Texas           -0.03 +/- 0.63    TCU             -0.13 +/- 0.19
Baylor          +0.22    TCU               9.73    West Virginia   -0.29 +/- 0.54    Kansas          -0.14 +/- 0.19
Texas           +0.14    West Virginia     9.78    Baylor          -0.35 +/- 0.73    Baylor          -0.16 +/- 0.22
Kansas State    -0.03    Oklahoma State   10.22    TCU             -0.49 +/- 0.53    Texas Tech      -0.28 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  -0.16    Texas            11.19    Oklahoma        -0.55 +/- 0.50    West Virginia   -0.38 +/- 0.21
TCU             -0.49    Baylor           11.88    Iowa State      -0.83 +/- 0.41    Texas           -0.42 +/- 0.27

Everybody's strength of schedule is now higher than 200 - the inexorable climb as conference
play continues.  TCU is in danger of its average scoring margin going negative after
Saturday's trip to Lawrence.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    ---------------------------
Oklahoma        86.67    West Virginia   64.00    Iowa State      160.75    West Virginia   +20.63    Texas           78.66 (  4)
Iowa State      84.88    Oklahoma State  65.63    Oklahoma        158.47    Kansas          +15.33    Kansas          78.61 (  5)
West Virginia   84.63    Kansas State    65.81    Kansas          151.87    Oklahoma        +14.87    Oklahoma        77.62 ( 12)
Kansas          83.60    Baylor          68.13    West Virginia   148.63    Baylor          +11.33    Iowa State      76.70 ( 22)
Baylor          79.47    Kansas          68.27    Baylor          147.60    Iowa State       +9.00    Texas Tech      76.18 ( 32)
Texas           74.06    TCU             68.31    Texas           143.94    Kansas State     +6.88    Kansas State    74.60 ( 78)
Texas Tech      73.53    Texas Tech      68.47    Texas Tech      142.00    Texas Tech       +5.07    West Virginia   73.37 (116)
Kansas State    72.69    Texas           69.88    Kansas State    138.50    Texas            +4.19    Oklahoma State  72.43 (159)
Oklahoma State  69.56    Oklahoma        71.80    TCU             137.50    Oklahoma State   +3.94    Baylor          72.07 (174)
TCU             69.19    Iowa State      75.88    Oklahoma State  135.19    TCU              +0.88    TCU             71.69 (192)
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The following user(s) said Thank You: sasnak, JayhawkChef

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