predictions for Oklahoma State game

   "Things that are inevitable:   death, taxes, and Kansas winning the Big 12."
      --Doug Gottlieb

Another relatively early tip, exacerbated by Daylight Savings Time,
which Hawaii does NOT observe, so it's an hour earlier than it would
have been a couple weeks ago if held at the same time in Kansas City.

Grr.

The more I write, the closer to tip it'll be to get this posted, so
I'll write less.

Sagarin Predictor has Kansas by 11.1 points.  The Jayhawks have played
below expectation by more than that only once in 30 Division I games,
and by now you know which game that was.  Oklahoma State is the Big 12's
most inconsistent team.  The Cowboys have played above expectation by
more than 11.1 points in seven games out of 32 played.  That's 8 cases
out of 62 Division I games, corresponding to a 13 percent probability
of Kansas losing the game, which is generally consistent with the
various predictions in the table below.

Oklahoma State started the conference season projected to win 9 games.
The Cowboys opened weakly, and after Round 8, the projection had
shrunk to just 4 wins.  They ended with 7 wins, not counting yesterday's
tournament game, which demonstrates their positive trend.  Indeed, the
most pessimistic of the various prognostications comes from Sagarin's
Recent Games rating, which favors Kansas by only 7.9 points.  Colley
is the most optimistic at 18.6 points, followed by the BPI at 17.3
points, then Massey at 17 points, and Sagarin Eigenvector at 16.3 points.
Recall that the BPI won season honors for best prognostications, edging
out Massey.

Cheer on the Jayhawks from your living rooms.  Maybe with a collective
effort, they'll hear us through our televisions.  Or not.  It's going
to be surreal.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OSU     KU       Defensive Stats     OSU     KU
Points/Game         67.6    74.0     Opp Points/Game     66.1    60.6
Avg Score Margin    +1.5   +13.3     Opp Effective FG %  46.7    43.7
Assists/Game        11.8    13.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.9     9.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.7    38.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.1    26.6
Effective FG %      47.8    53.7     Blocks/Game          3.8     4.7
Off Rebound %       27.9    31.5     Steals/Game          6.8     7.5
FTA/FGA            0.352   0.358     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.9    14.6
Turnover %          16.9    16.2

Kansas leads in every category.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Kansas City plus the eight Big 12
conference members.  I'll compare only the home-home and away-away
permutations for the conference regular season games, but both the
neutral-home and neutral-away scores for yesterday's tournament game,
which gives us twenty one scores to compare:

KU  +41 KC  neutral (+41 neutral)
OSU +18 KC  at home (+14 neutral)
KU  +27 OSU neutral (+27 neutral)

KU   +4 TTU on road ( +8 neutral)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
OSU -35 TTU on road (-31 neutral)     OSU  +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
KU  +39 OSU neutral (+39 neutral)     KU    0 OSU neutral (  0 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU   +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)
OSU -14 WVU at home (-18 neutral)     OSU -18 WVU on road (-14 neutral)
KU  +21 OSU neutral (+21 neutral)     KU  +27 OSU neutral (+27 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)     KU   +9 TCU at home ( +5 neutral)
OSU -12 TCU on road ( -8 neutral)     OSU +15 TCU at home (+11 neutral)
KU  +26 OSU neutral (+26 neutral)     KU   -6 OSU neutral ( -6 neutral)

KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)
OSU -12 UT  at home (-16 neutral)     OSU +22 UT  on road (+26 neutral)
KU  +23 OSU neutral (+23 neutral)     KU  -13 OSU neutral (-13 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)     KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)
OSU  -7 BU  at home (-11 neutral)     OSU  -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral)
KU   -5 OSU neutral ( -5 neutral)     KU  +11 OSU on road (+11 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)     KU  +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)
OSU  -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral)     OSU +12 ISU at home ( +8 neutral)
KU  +33 OSU neutral (+33 neutral)     KU   +8 OSU neutral ( +8 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)     KU  +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)
OSU -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral)     OSU +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)
KU  +27 OSU neutral (+27 neutral)     KU    0 OSU neutral (  0 neutral)

KU   +4 KSU on road ( +8 neutral)     KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
OSU  +5 KSU on road ( +9 neutral)     OSU  +6 KSU at home ( +2 neutral)
KU   -1 OSU neutral ( -1 neutral)     KU  +15 OSU neutral (+15 neutral)

KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)     KU  +25 OSU at home (+21 neutral)
KU  +19 OSU neutral (+19 neutral)     KU  +21 OSU neutral (+21 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)     KU  +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)
OSU  +1 ISU neutral ( +1 neutral)     OSU  +1 ISU neutral ( +1 neutral)
KU  +29 OSU neutral (+29 neutral)     KU  +15 OSU neutral (+15 neutral)

Fifteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while four favor Oklahoma State,
and the remaining two are a wash.  The average favors Kansas by 15.0 points,
with a scatter of 14.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points        Cameron McGriff (forward)
most rebounds      Cameron McGriff (forward)
most assists       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals        Isaac Likekele (guard)
most blocks        Yor Anei (forward)
most turnovers     Isaac Likekele (guard)
most fouls         Yor Anei (forward)

Guard Chris Harris Jr. is out with a knee injury.  He's eighth in minutes
played.  Guard Marcus Watson has been suspended indefinitely and hasn't
contributed this season.

Build up a big enough lead, and Silvio may see his first action since the
altercation.

                                                          28-3          18-14
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +10.37   70   59       82       #  1   #  5    # 36   # 20
Sagarin Predictor      +11.05   70   59       82.3     #  2   #  5    # 54   # 20 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +11.20   70   59                #  1   #  5    # 48   # 20 
Sagarin Recent Games    +7.91   68   60                #  1   #  5    # 13   # 20 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +16.32   72   56       90  
Massey                 +17.00   74   57       94       #  1   #  1    # 46   # 18
Pomeroy                +11.88   71   59                #  1   #  2    # 53   # 14
Greenfield             +11.50   72   60.5              #  1   #  1    # 53   # 23
Dunkel                 +15.50   77   61                #  2           # 70                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.00   72   61                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +11.00   72   61       84.3     #  1   #  1    # 50   # 53
Real Time              +12.00   71   59       70.7     #  1   #  1    # 83   # 31 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   74   60       87       #  1   #  7    #104   #  6
DPPI                      .                            #  1   #  1    # 27   # 66
ESPN BPI               +17.30                 93.8     #  1   # 11    # 60   # 19
Whitlock               +12.97                          #  1   #  7    # 52   #  9
Colley Matrix          +18.61                          #  1   #  1    # 57   # 13
NCAA NET                                               #  2           # 64
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    # 65   # 16
common opponents       +15.05                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +13.21   71.8 59.3
scatter                  2.96    2.3  1.5  

Here is Kansas' season, with future opponents assuming the higher seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -0.01    -1.99
HOME   # 94 NC Greensboro               74  62   +18.77    -6.77
HOME   #202 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.15   +27.85
HOME   # 66 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +16.06    -4.06
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 27 BYU                         71  56    +7.75    +7.25
NEUT   # 16 Dayton                      90  84    +6.45    -0.45
HOME   # 39 Colorado                    72  58   +12.84    +1.16
HOME   #259 Milwaukee                   95  68   +30.54    -3.54
NEUT   #226 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.35   +15.65
AWAY   # 18 Villanova                   55  56    +3.33    -4.33
AWAY   # 62 Stanford                    72  56    +9.17    +6.83
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               60  53    +8.69    -1.69
AWAY   # 65 Iowa State                  79  53    +9.47   +16.53
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +7.16   -19.16
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                    66  52    +6.62    +7.38
AWAY   # 51 Texas                       66  57    +7.55    +1.45
HOME   # 72 Kansas State                81  60   +17.03    +3.97
HOME   # 49 Tennessee                   74  68   +13.90    -7.90
AWAY   # 54 Oklahoma State              65  50    +7.82    +7.18
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                  78  75    +9.97    -6.97
HOME   # 51 Texas                       69  58   +14.01    -3.01
AWAY   # 68 TCU                         60  46    +9.83    +4.17
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               58  49    +2.23    +6.77
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                    87  70   +13.08    +3.92
HOME   # 65 Iowa State                  91  71   +15.93    +4.07
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      64  61    +0.70    +2.30
HOME   # 54 Oklahoma State              83  58   +14.28   +10.72
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                62  58   +10.57    -6.57
HOME   # 68 TCU                         75  66   +16.29    -7.29
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  66  62    +3.51    +0.49
NEUT   # 54 Oklahoma State                       +11.05             0.823
NEUT   # 51 Texas                                +10.78             0.837
NEUT   #  5 Baylor                                +3.93             0.684

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #134 Oral Roberts                80  75   +11.21    -6.21
HOME   #226 Kansas City(UMKC)           69  51   +17.53    +0.47
AWAY   #150 College of Charleston       73  54    +5.72   +13.28
HOME   # 82 Yale                        64  57    +6.53    +0.47
HOME   #224 Western Michigan            70  63   +17.42   -10.42
NEUT   # 52 Syracuse                    86  72    -0.19   +14.19
NEUT   # 79 Mississippi                 78  37    +3.16   +37.84
HOME   # 69 Georgetown                  74  81    +5.37   -12.37
HOME   # 35 Wichita State               61  80    +1.40   -20.40
AWAY   # 20 Houston                     61  55    -7.45   +13.45
NEUT   # 29 Minnesota                   66  86    -2.76   -17.24
HOME   #338 SE Louisiana                82  31   +26.64   +24.36
AWAY   # 19 Texas Tech                  50  85    -7.54   -27.46
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               41  55    -2.36   -11.64
AWAY   # 68 TCU                         40  52    -1.22   -10.78
HOME   # 51 Texas                       64  76    +2.96   -14.96
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      68  75    -3.89    -3.11
AWAY   # 65 Iowa State                  82  89    -1.58    -5.42
AWAY   #108 Texas A&M                   73  62    +2.63    +8.37
HOME   #  2 Kansas                      50  65    -7.82    -7.18
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                    69  82    -4.43    -8.57
HOME   # 68 TCU                         72  57    +5.24    +9.76
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      70  78   -10.35    +2.35
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                64  59    -0.48    +5.48
HOME   # 19 Texas Tech                  73  70    -1.08    +4.08
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia               47  65    -8.82    -9.18
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                    83  66    +2.03   +14.97
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                      58  83   -14.28   -10.72
HOME   # 65 Iowa State                  73  61    +4.88    +7.12
HOME   # 72 Kansas State                69  63    +5.98    +0.02
AWAY   # 51 Texas                       81  59    -3.50   +25.50
NEUT   # 65 Iowa State                  72  71    +1.65    -0.65
NEUT   #  2 Kansas                               -11.05             0.177