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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Big 12 redux
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5 years 9 months ago #25200
by asteroid
SOLE BIG 12 CHAMPS!!
Oklahoma's huge comeback win in Fort Worth forged a four-way tie for third place, and the
tie-breaker rules gave the Sooners the third seed. Texas, Texas Tech, and West Virginia
all got pushed down a slot. No other changes in the final standings.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9 Rd 10 Rd 11
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj.
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- -----
# 2 Kansas 14.45 14.60 14.97 13.72 14.14 14.28 14.36 14.77 14.89 14.97 15.20 15.67
# 5 Baylor 10.99 11.45 12.05 13.33 13.60 14.01 14.05 14.59 14.77 15.00 15.13 15.46
# 41 Oklahoma 7.19 7.31 8.46 7.91 7.50 8.05 7.93 7.47 7.97 7.61 8.37 8.86
# 51 Texas 7.25 6.83 5.71 6.47 7.45 7.58 6.62 7.58 7.95 8.05 7.54 7.14
# 19 Texas Tech 9.33 10.29 9.45 9.01 9.55 9.96 9.31 9.93 9.88 10.11 10.63 11.01
# 8 West Virginia 10.73 10.79 11.92 12.22 12.64 11.31 11.91 11.37 11.56 11.76 11.03 10.51
# 66 TCU 7.46 7.73 8.21 8.83 8.37 7.71 8.49 7.58 7.33 6.82 6.60 6.34
# 52 Oklahoma State 8.95 7.89 7.30 6.57 5.68 5.50 5.06 4.52 3.93 4.47 4.31 4.87
# 65 Iowa State 8.35 8.00 7.45 7.86 7.61 6.82 7.44 6.72 6.24 6.04 6.40 5.96
# 73 Kansas State 5.30 5.11 4.48 4.08 3.46 4.78 4.83 5.47 5.48 5.17 4.79 4.18
Rd 12 Rd 13 Rd 14 Rd 15 Rd 16 Rd 17
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 2 Kansas 15.75 15.87 16.33 16.48 16.58 16.63 17 1 O/I (Th) KU by 11.0/10.9
# 5 Baylor 15.87 16.32 15.83 15.94 15.21 15.45 15 3 T/K (Th) BU by 8.8/ 9.9
# 41 Oklahoma 8.74 8.38 7.83 8.39 9.14 8.49 9 9 WVU (Th)
# 51 Texas 6.61 7.06 7.60 8.27 9.00 9.64 9 9 TTU (Th)
# 19 Texas Tech 10.35 10.42 10.94 10.35 9.63 9.37 9 9 UT (Th) TTU by 4.0
# 8 West Virginia 10.14 10.36 9.63 8.93 8.12 8.55 9 9 OU (Th) WVU by 4.3
# 66 TCU 6.79 6.38 7.17 6.78 7.55 7.51 7 11 KSU (We) TCU by 1.1
# 52 Oklahoma State 5.50 5.23 5.82 5.65 6.05 6.36 7 11 ISU (We) OSU by 1.7
# 65 Iowa State 6.49 6.43 5.85 6.27 5.85 5.44 5 13 OSU (We)
# 73 Kansas State 3.76 3.55 3.00 2.94 2.87 2.56 3 15 TCU (We)
Init.
Proj. Conf
Big XII Team Wins Record Diff.
-------------- ----- ------ -----
Baylor 10.99 15 3 +4.01
Kansas 14.45 17 1 +2.55
Oklahoma 7.19 9 9 +1.81
Texas 7.25 9 9 +1.75
Texas Tech 9.33 9 9 -0.33
TCU 7.46 7 11 -0.46
West Virginia 10.73 9 9 -1.73
Oklahoma State 8.95 7 11 -1.95
Kansas State 5.30 3 15 -2.30
Iowa State 8.35 5 13 -3.35
Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 18, his third win of the season and second
in a row. ESPN's BPI retained the season lead. Seven Overtimes turned in the worst performance,
and Colley is still bringing up the rear for the season. Recall that Whitlock is ineligible for
season honors due to having been included for only 40 of the 90 games.
Predictions
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
UT over OSU 4.7 7.0 4.1 3.5 0.0 4.0 3.5 7.2 4.7 4.5 6.0 7.0 3.0 5.7 5.6
KU over TTU 3.9 6.0 4.1 3.0 8.5 3.5 3.1 15.0 6.6 3.5 9.0 3.0 4.7 2.9 1.1
KSU over ISU 1.6 3.0 2.1 5.5 9.5 5.0 2.3 -1.7 1.1 2.5 -1.0 -2.0 1.9 2.6 4.1
WVU over BU 1.2 -3.0 -0.6 1.0 4.5 1.0 1.2 -5.2 -1.2 4.0 -7.0 5.0 0.6 2.2 -2.0
TCU over OU 0.5 1.0 -0.7 1.0 -6.5 1.0 0.0 -1.3 -1.8 -1.0 1.0 6.0 -0.6 1.5 2.9
Reality Error
------- -------2.5----------------2-----3-----------1-----------1----3.5----3-----------1-------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll Whit ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
-22 26.7 29.0 26.1 25.5 22.0 26.0 25.5 29.2 26.7 26.5 28.0 29.0 25.0 27.7 27.6
4 0.1 2.0 0.1 1.0 4.5 0.5 0.9 11.0 2.6 0.5 5.0 1.0 0.7 1.1 2.9
16 14.4 13.0 13.9 10.5 6.5 11.0 13.7 17.7 14.9 13.5 17.0 18.0 14.1 13.4 11.9
12 10.8 15.0 12.6 11.0 7.5 11.0 10.8 17.2 13.2 8.0 19.0 7.0 11.4 9.8 14.0
-2 2.5 3.0 1.3 3.0 4.5 3.0 2.0 0.7 0.2 1.0 3.0 8.0 1.4 3.5 4.9
total 54.5 62.0 54.0 51.0 45.0 51.5 52.9 75.8 57.6 49.5 72.0 63.0 52.6 55.5 61.3
previous 807.4 788.0 796.0 811.0 878.5 803.0 811.3 889.3 360.8 785.7 864.0 879.0 806.2 801.6 836.9
cumulative 861.9 850.0 850.0 862.0 923.5 854.5 864.2 965.1 418.4 835.2 936.0 942.0 858.8 857.1 898.2
per game 9.6 9.4 9.4 9.6 10.3 9.5 9.6 10.7 10.4 9.3 10.4 10.5 9.5 9.5 10.0
Only one road win was projected for Round 18, but three happened, so we finished the season with
one more road win than the long-term average of one on three, but within the expected range.
Road wins (31 out of 90) Home losses Diff.
---------------------------------------------------- --------------------------------------- ------
9 Kansas ISU OU UT OSU TCU WVU BU KSU TTU 1 Baylor KU +8 KU
7 Baylor TTU KU OSU ISU KSU UT OU 1 Kansas BU +6 BU
5 Texas OSU TCU KSU TTU OU 2 West Virginia KU OU 0 UT
3 Oklahoma UT WVU TCU 3 Iowa State KU BU TTU 0 TTU
3 Texas Tech KSU UT ISU 3 Oklahoma KU BU UT 0 OU
2 Oklahoma State KSU UT 3 TCU UT KU OU -1 WVU
1 TCU KSU 3 Texas Tech BU UT KU -2 OSU
1 West Virginia OSU 4 Oklahoma State WVU UT BU KU -2 TCU
0 Iowa State 5 Texas OU KU TTU BU OSU -3 ISU
0 Kansas State 6 Kansas State TCU TTU BU OSU UT KU -6 KSU
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Kansas +1.81 Baylor 7.35
Baylor +1.17 Kansas 8.97
Texas Tech +0.75 Kansas State 9.02
West Virginia +0.80 Oklahoma 10.33
Oklahoma +0.28 West Virginia 11.17
Oklahoma State +0.11 TCU 11.69
Kansas State -0.66 Iowa State 12.39
TCU -0.77 Texas 12.63
Iowa State -1.36 Texas Tech 13.26
Texas -1.80 Oklahoma State 14.65
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Oklahoma +0.22 +/- 0.21 Baylor +0.15 +/- 0.13
Texas Tech +0.16 +/- 0.27 Oklahoma +0.14 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma State +0.13 +/- 0.30 Texas Tech +0.11 +/- 0.23
Kansas State +0.12 +/- 0.18 Texas +0.01 +/- 0.24
Texas +0.02 +/- 0.26 Kansas State 0.00 +/- 0.16
Baylor -0.02 +/- 0.16 Iowa State -0.18 +/- 0.20
Kansas -0.12 +/- 0.19 West Virginia -0.25 +/- 0.28
TCU -0.18 +/- 0.25 Kansas -0.28 +/- 0.22
West Virginia -0.19 +/- 0.23 Oklahoma State -0.43 +/- 0.30
Iowa State -0.35 +/- 0.24 TCU -0.57 +/- 0.22
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Kansas 73.70 Baylor 60.40 Iowa State 145.03 Kansas +12.80
Iowa State 71.65 Kansas 60.90 Oklahoma 137.61 Baylor +10.47
Texas Tech 71.48 West Virginia 62.68 Texas Tech 135.45 Texas Tech +7.52
Baylor 70.87 Texas 63.68 Kansas 134.60 West Virginia +7.35
Oklahoma 70.10 Texas Tech 63.97 Oklahoma State 133.39 Oklahoma +2.58
West Virginia 70.03 Kansas State 65.81 West Virginia 132.71 Oklahoma State +1.00
Oklahoma State 67.19 TCU 66.03 Baylor 131.27 Texas +0.10
TCU 64.83 Oklahoma State 66.19 TCU 130.87 TCU -1.20
Kansas State 64.23 Oklahoma 67.52 Kansas State 130.03 Kansas State -1.58
Texas 63.77 Iowa State 73.39 Texas 127.45 Iowa State -1.74
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 82.03 ( 4)
Iowa State 81.89 ( 5)
Oklahoma 81.54 ( 8)
Oklahoma State 81.03 (18)
Kansas State 80.95 (22)
West Virginia 80.90 (23)
Baylor 80.49 (30)
Texas 80.42 (32)
TCU 80.27 (33)
Texas Tech 80.09 (37)
Schedule Strength Top 10
--------------------------
Minnesota 82.99 ( 1)
Michigan 82.29 ( 2)
Purdue 82.17 ( 3)
Kansas 82.03 ( 4)
Iowa State 81.89 ( 5)
Wisconsin 81.69 ( 6)
Michigan State 81.61 ( 7)
Oklahoma 81.54 ( 8)
Seton Hall 81.53 ( 9)
Nebraska 81.32 (10)
Swap of Venue Analysis (points)
-------------------------------
TCU median +18, average +20.6 +/- 6.1
West Virginia median +20, average +17.7 +/- 6.2
Iowa State median +9, average +13.3 +/- 6.0
Oklahoma median +13, average +12.1 +/- 5.9
Texas Tech median -1, average +11.3 +/- 8.2
Kansas State median +13, average +10.7 +/- 3.7
Oklahoma State median +10, average +10.7 +/- 7.2
Texas median +3, average +5.2 +/- 8.2
Baylor median +1, average +4.3 +/- 4.1
Kansas median -1, average +0.3 +/- 3.1
1@H means team 1 at home
2@H means team 2 at home
Team 1 Team 2 1@H 2@H Diff.
-------------- -------------- --- --- -----
Kansas Kansas State +21 +4 +17
Kansas Oklahoma State +25 +15 +10
Kansas Oklahoma +17 +14 +3
Kansas Texas +11 +9 +2
Kansas Texas Tech +3 +4 -1 <-- median, average 0.3 +/- 3.1
Kansas West Virginia +7 +9 -2
Kansas TCU +9 +14 -5
Kansas Iowa State +20 +26 -6
Kansas Baylor -12 +3 -15
Baylor West Virginia +11 -12 +23
Baylor TCU +16 -3 +19
Baylor Kansas State +19 +6 +13
Baylor Texas +15 +7 +8
Baylor Oklahoma State +8 +7 +1 <-- median, average 4.3 +/- 4.1
Baylor Iowa State +13 +14 -1
Baylor Texas Tech +3 +5 -2
Baylor Oklahoma +4 +11 -7
Baylor Kansas -3 +12 -15
Oklahoma Iowa State +29 -13 +42
Oklahoma Oklahoma State +13 -17 +30
Oklahoma Texas Tech +14 -8 +22
Oklahoma TCU +20 +2 +18
Oklahoma Kansas State +5 -8 +13 <-- median, average 12.1 +/- 5.9
Oklahoma Kansas -14 -17 +3
Oklahoma West Virginia +10 +11 -1
Oklahoma Baylor -11 -4 -7
Oklahoma Texas -1 +10 -11
Texas West Virginia +10 -38 +48
Texas Iowa State +4 -29 +33
Texas TCU +14 +1 +13
Texas Baylor -7 -15 +8
Texas Kansas State +14 +11 +3 <-- median, average 5.2 +/- 8.2
Texas Kansas -9 -11 +2
Texas Oklahoma -10 +1 -11
Texas Texas Tech -5 +10 -15
Texas Oklahoma State -22 +12 -34
Texas Tech TCU +46 -11 +57
Texas Tech Oklahoma State +35 -3 +38
Texas Tech Oklahoma +8 -14 +22
Texas Tech West Virginia +8 -12 +20
Texas Tech Kansas -4 -3 -1 <-- median, average 11.3 +/- 8.2
Texas Tech Baylor -5 -3 -2
Texas Tech Kansas State +7 +14 -7
Texas Tech Iowa State +20 +30 -10
Texas Tech Texas -10 +5 -15
West Virginia Texas +38 -10 +48
West Virginia TCU +32 -7 +39
West Virginia Kansas State +9 -16 +25
West Virginia Baylor +12 -11 +23
West Virginia Texas Tech +12 -8 +20 <-- median, average 17.7 +/- 6.2
West Virginia Iowa State +15 +6 +9
West Virginia Oklahoma State +18 +14 +4
West Virginia Oklahoma -11 -10 -1
West Virginia Kansas -9 -7 -2
TCU Texas Tech +11 -46 +57
TCU West Virginia +7 -32 +39
TCU Oklahoma State +12 -15 +27
TCU Baylor +3 -16 +19
TCU Oklahoma -2 -20 +18 <-- median, average 20.6 +/- 6.1
TCU Texas -1 -14 +13
TCU Kansas State +11 +2 +9
TCU Iowa State +2 -6 +8
TCU Kansas -14 -9 -5
Oklahoma State Texas Tech +3 -35 +38
Oklahoma State Oklahoma +17 -13 +30
Oklahoma State TCU +15 -12 +27
Oklahoma State Iowa State +12 -7 +19
Oklahoma State Kansas -15 -25 +10 <-- median, average 10.7 +/- 7.2
Oklahoma State West Virginia -14 -18 +4
Oklahoma State Baylor -7 -8 +1
Oklahoma State Kansas State +6 +5 +1
Oklahoma State Texas -12 +22 -34
Iowa State Oklahoma +13 -29 +42
Iowa State Texas +29 -4 +33
Iowa State Kansas State +10 -16 +26
Iowa State Oklahoma State +7 -12 +19
Iowa State West Virginia -6 -15 +9 <-- median, average 13.3 +/- 6.0
Iowa State TCU +6 -2 +8
Iowa State Baylor -14 -13 -1
Iowa State Kansas -26 -20 -6
Iowa State Texas Tech -30 -20 -10
Kansas State Iowa State +16 -10 +26
Kansas State West Virginia +16 -9 +25
Kansas State Kansas -4 -21 +17
Kansas State Baylor -6 -19 +13
Kansas State Oklahoma +8 -5 +13 <-- median, average 10.7 +/- 3.7
Kansas State TCU -2 -11 +9
Kansas State Texas -11 -14 +3
Kansas State Oklahoma State -5 -6 +1
Kansas State Texas Tech -14 -7 -7
Conference as a whole: median is 9 points, average is 10.73 +/- 2.73
The following user(s) said Thank You: konza63, HawkErrant, sasnak, wardhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, DocBlues, hoshi, jaythawk1
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5 years 9 months ago #25205
by konza63
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Huge thanks as always, Asteroid, for another season of great inputs!
“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”
1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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