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Coronavirus and March Madness

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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #25172 by konza63
I really, really hate to bring this up. But as a realist, and as someone with background in scenario planning and futures analysis, one thing that's been on my mind as a concern the past couple weeks is that the spread of the virus could ultimately have a major impact on The Dance.

My biggest worry, in the worst-case scenario of cross-country rapid spread, is that they might cancel the event in its entirety. I can't even imagine that happening, but this is a growing public health crisis (see: China, South Korea, Italy, et al.) so it has to be one scenario on the table we'd all have to most reluctantly consider. :-(

Obviously, postponement would be preferred to cancellation - all the more so for KU fans like us, given the quality of team and shot we have this year.

Other options they might consider:

* Proceeding with the event but playing to empty arenas and just televising it (massive, massive loss of revenue for the cities - and potentially the NCAA itself if they have to refund tickets). Also a massive goat rope for individuals who have bought tickets through the after-market process (unofficial).

* Going ahead with the tourney and fan participation, but shifting some sites (e.g., the Spokane site) - but this is super tricky, given the projected spread to other places. It's like sticking fingers in the dike, only to have the water come through somewhere else. A logistical nightmare because this requires cities to have sufficient lead times, plan for the deluge of people, etc.

* Proceed with the tourney but execute extreme caution at the arena sites - up to and including testing people's temperatures as they enter (see the WP article I'm posting). But even there, it's not a great solution, since many carriers of this virus can be asymptomatic - no signs, yet vectors of contagion.

Ugh. Ugh. Ugh.

Again, I didn't want to be the guy dropping a you-know-what in the punch bowl, but this has to be on our radar, folks. It is what it is.

PS: The same dynamic and set of issues apples to the league tourneys that are fast approaching. Not anywhere near the same scale as The Dance, but the timing is certainly not ideal.

Here are a couple articles on the fast-evolving situation:

www.washingtonpost.com/sports/2020/03/06...rus-its-complicated/

www.insidehighered.com/news/2020/03/05/f...eled-due-coronavirus

nypost.com/2020/03/06/college-basketball...d-coronavirus-fears/

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 5 years 5 months ago by konza63.
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5 years 5 months ago #25173 by konza63
PS: As both a fan and moderator, I'd ask in advance that we keep this conversation about the bug, the potential implications for the tournament, and KU. No political op-eds in this forum, please. Feel free to take those over to the politics board, but not here.

Thanks!

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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5 years 5 months ago #25174 by rainyhawk
My husbands suggestion was to give the #1 team the championship. right now i'd take that over no tourney at all. It would happen this year when we have a really good shot at it!
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5 years 5 months ago #25204 by konza63

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
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5 years 5 months ago #25206 by NotOstertag
I work for an organization that runs 15 major conferences ranging from 400-3000 people at each one, along with dozens of smaller (<100 ppl) meetings and seminars. Last week, we had 2 events happening at the same time in 2 different markets with probably 800 people between them.

I can tell you that heading into last week, we were full speed ahead, wash your hands, and we'll put out plenty of hand sanitizer. Today our senior management is getting together and talking about cancelling/postponing/rescheduling options.

Like anything else, there's a perception vs. reality situation and business needs to take both into account. While most of us here are confident that we can proceed safely if everyone is taking reasonable precautions, we also see OTHER events (i.e. South by Southwest) cancelling. Therefore, the perception might be that we're heartless bastards if we make everyone who is committed to our events show up or not offer refunds for cancellations. There's also a liability issue: if your boss "makes" you work an event where you get sick, is your boss liable for making you attend an event when people are sick?

Rescheduling anything is very difficult. Work is already underway for the NCAA tournament, money has been spent, and there's no guarantee that venues will be available later on.

If I were to make a prediction, I'd wager that the games go on. There's just too much money at stake, and the majority of fans will still be happy to show up if they can make it. I do think that screening will be taking place to see if people have elevated temperatures when they arrive, and there might even be come kind of "decontamination" situation. Finally, I think the teams themselves will be flat our quarantined whether they like it or not, and they'll be kept far away from fans.

Of course this is all a wild guess. I do think, however, that the current level of panic can't be sustained. Either cases will begin to decline, or people will realize that it's not as dangerous as they might think, or the medical community will figure out how to treat it and make it less of a threat and life will begin to resume more normalcy.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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5 years 5 months ago - 5 years 5 months ago #25211 by konza63
One shoe has dropped, in Ohio (site of the play-in games):

nypost.com/2020/03/10/march-madness-2020...coronavirus-warning/

And now I am starting to see and hear calls for more extreme measures:

www.usatoday.com/story/sports/college/co...urnament/5016117002/

www.theatlantic.com/ideas/archive/2020/0...l-everything/607675/

Please do not shoot the messenger. College basketball, the KU program, and our university mean the world to me. I’m hoping there is a solution ahead that enables all of the teams to compete for the ultimate prize - with or without fans attending. But I have an obligation to keep us aware of this burgeoning issue and the changing responses around it. (Precisely why I raised it early on)

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.
Last Edit: 5 years 5 months ago by konza63.
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5 years 5 months ago #25212 by NotOstertag
The Big 12 is keeping the fans and press away from the teams. No reporters in the locker room, interviews only in the interview room. Photogs pushed back during practice and games.

One thing to consider in our "follow the money" world: the Tournament has multiple revenue streams: ticket sales, concessions/merchandise sales, and TV. It would seem to me that if they cancelled the tournament outright. they'd lose all of that revenue. If they shut the fans out and play in empty stadiums, they'd still have 2 of the 3 revenue streams available.

Logically, then, you'd think that IF the decide that they can't have large events, that they'd still likely try to go ahead as a TV-only event.

"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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5 years 5 months ago #25213 by konza63
Makes sense.

Thanks, NotO.

“With kindest regards to Dr. Forrest C. Allen, the father of basketball coaching, from the father of the game.”

1936 inscription on the portrait of Dr. Naismith, displayed above Phog Allen's office desk at KU.

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