projected Big 12 standings, Round 16

Oklahoma State's victory over Iowa State enabled the Cowboys to take over eighth place from the
Cyclones.  Meanwhile, West Virginia's home loss to Oklahoma caused the Mountaineers to drop
below both the Sooners and Longhorns, who picked up a rare win in Lubbock.  Baylor's stunning
loss at TCU didn't change their projected standings, but it drastically changes the dynamics of
the conference race.  As for the number of conference teams to receive invitations to the NCAA
Tournament, Oklahoma and Texas certainly helped their cases, and six teams is beginning to look
more realistic, though only one of them (OU, UT) will win in Round 17.  Kansas slipped back into
#2 in Sagarin Predictor, though to the precision shown, the Jayhawks are tied with Duke at a
rating of 93.60, despite Duke having lost yet another game.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.60  14.97  13.72  14.14  14.28  14.36  14.77  14.89  14.97  15.20
#  5  Baylor          10.99  11.45  12.05  13.33  13.60  14.01  14.05  14.59  14.77  15.00  15.13
# 22  Texas Tech       9.33  10.29   9.45   9.01   9.55   9.96   9.31   9.93   9.88  10.11  10.63
# 38  Oklahoma         7.19   7.31   8.46   7.91   7.50   8.05   7.93   7.47   7.97   7.61   8.37
# 48  Texas            7.25   6.83   5.71   6.47   7.45   7.58   6.62   7.58   7.95   8.05   7.54
# 14  West Virginia   10.73  10.79  11.92  12.22  12.64  11.31  11.91  11.37  11.56  11.76  11.03
# 69  TCU              7.46   7.73   8.21   8.83   8.37   7.71   8.49   7.58   7.33   6.82   6.60
# 56  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.89   7.30   6.57   5.68   5.50   5.06   4.52   3.93   4.47   4.31
# 62  Iowa State       8.35   8.00   7.45   7.86   7.61   6.82   7.44   6.72   6.24   6.04   6.40
# 79  Kansas State     5.30   5.11   4.48   4.08   3.46   4.78   4.83   5.47   5.48   5.17   4.79

                      Rd 11  Rd 12  Rd 13  Rd 14  Rd 15  Rd 16  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          15.67  15.75  15.87  16.33  16.48  16.58   15  1   TCU (We)   KU  by 16.4
#  5  Baylor          15.46  15.87  16.32  15.83  15.94  15.21   14  2   TTU (Mo)   BU  by  6.9
# 22  Texas Tech      11.01  10.35  10.42  10.94  10.35   9.63    9  7  @BU  (Mo)   
# 38  Oklahoma         8.86   8.74   8.38   7.83   8.39   9.14    8  8   UT  (Tu)   OU  by  3.9
# 48  Texas            7.14   6.61   7.06   7.60   8.27   9.00    8  8  @OU  (Tu)   
# 14  West Virginia   10.51  10.14  10.36   9.63   8.93   8.12    7  9  @ISU (Tu)   WVU by  2.9  RW
# 69  TCU              6.34   6.79   6.38   7.17   6.78   7.55    7  9  @KU  (We)   
# 56  Oklahoma State   4.87   5.50   5.23   5.82   5.65   6.05    5 11   KSU (We)   OSU by  5.6
# 62  Iowa State       5.96   6.49   6.43   5.85   6.27   5.85    5 11   WVU (Tu)   
# 79  Kansas State     4.18   3.76   3.55   3.00   2.94   2.87    2 14  @OSU (We)   

My home court adjustment to Sagarin Predictor took honors for best prognostications in Round 16,
though it was not a particularly good round for anybody.  Massey retains the season lead.
Colley turned in the worst predictions for the round, while Dunkel continues to bring up the
rear for the season.

Predictions                                                                                           
------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over KSU  11.5  16.0  13.1  11.5   8.0  11.0  10.8  26.2  15.4  14.8  18.0  19.0  14.7  10.5  13.7
WVU over OU    7.7   8.0   7.9   8.5  10.5   8.5   8.2   6.9   8.9  13.6   9.0  13.0   8.8   8.7   6.2
TTU over UT    7.4   9.0   9.0  11.5   6.5  11.0   9.0   2.9   9.2  11.0   2.0  13.0  10.5   8.4  11.7
BU  over TCU   7.0  11.0   8.3   7.5  16.0   7.5   6.5  15.7  10.1  10.2  11.0   3.0   9.0   6.0   9.7
OSU over ISU   3.3   5.0   4.4   7.5   9.5   6.5   4.1   6.2   4.5   5.9   3.0  14.0   4.5   4.3   9.1

     Reality  Error                                                                                  
     -------  -------2.5----------------1-----3-----------1-----------1----3.5----3-----------1-------
              Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
         4     7.5  12.0   9.1   7.5   4.0   7.0   6.8  22.2  11.4  10.8  14.0  15.0  10.7   6.5   9.7
       -11    18.7  19.0  18.9  19.5  21.5  19.5  19.2  17.9  19.9  24.6  20.0  24.0  19.8  19.7  17.2
       -10    17.4  19.0  19.0  21.5  16.5  21.0  19.0  12.9  19.2  21.0  12.0  23.0  20.5  18.4  21.7
        -3    10.0  14.0  11.3  10.5  19.0  10.5   9.5  18.7  13.1  13.2  14.0   6.0  12.0   9.0  12.7
        12     8.7   7.0   7.6   4.5   2.5   5.5   7.9   5.8   7.5   6.1   9.0   2.0   7.5   7.7   2.9

total         62.3  71.0  65.9  63.5  63.5  63.5  62.4  77.5  71.1  75.7  69.0  70.0  70.5  61.3  64.2
previous     725.7 684.0 709.3 727.5 803.0 718.0 729.5 769.3 264.7 684.2 772.0 753.0 713.2 716.5 742.9
cumulative   788.0 755.0 775.2 791.0 866.5 781.5 791.9 846.8 335.8 759.9 841.0 823.0 783.7 777.8 807.1
per game       9.9   9.4   9.7   9.9  10.8   9.8   9.9  10.6  11.2   9.5  10.5  10.3   9.8   9.7  10.1

Two road wins were projected for Round 16, but three happened, two of which were not projected.
Only one road win is projected for Round 17, but the way West Virginia has been fading of late,
the Cyclones may well prevail in Ames.

Road wins (27 out of 80)                          Home losses                              Differential
------------------------------------------------  ---------------------------------------  ------------
8 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU TCU WVU BU  KSU  1 Baylor         KU                      +7 KU
7 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU UT  OU       1 Kansas         BU                      +6 BU
4 Texas          OSU TCU KSU TTU                  2 Oklahoma       KU  BU                  +1 TTU
3 Texas Tech     KSU UT  ISU                      2 TCU            UT  KU                   0 OU
2 Oklahoma       UT  WVU                          2 Texas Tech     BU  UT                   0 UT
1 Oklahoma State KSU                              2 West Virginia  KU  OU                  -1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                              3 Iowa State     KU  BU  TTU             -1 WVU
1 West Virginia  OSU                              4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU          -3 ISU
0 Iowa State                                      4 Texas          OU  KU  TTU BU          -3 OSU
0 Kansas State                                    6 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU  OSU UT  KU  -6 KSU

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.05    Baylor            7.34    
Baylor          +1.29    Kansas State      8.88    
Texas Tech      +1.14    Kansas            9.01    
West Virginia   +1.07    Oklahoma         10.59    
Oklahoma        +0.21    West Virginia    11.39    
Oklahoma State  -0.10    TCU              12.05    
TCU             -0.73    Texas            12.15    
Kansas State    -0.98    Iowa State       12.76    
Iowa State      -1.27    Texas Tech       13.58    
Texas           -1.76    Oklahoma State   14.41    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma        +0.28 +/- 0.23    Baylor          +0.21 +/- 0.13
Texas Tech      +0.18 +/- 0.31    Oklahoma        +0.13 +/- 0.21
Texas           +0.14 +/- 0.27    Texas Tech      +0.09 +/- 0.25
Baylor          +0.10 +/- 0.17    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    +0.02 +/- 0.20    Texas           -0.04 +/- 0.24
Oklahoma State  -0.04 +/- 0.33    Iowa State      -0.15 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.07 +/- 0.21    West Virginia   -0.30 +/- 0.28
TCU             -0.26 +/- 0.28    Kansas          -0.34 +/- 0.23
West Virginia   -0.31 +/- 0.25    Oklahoma State  -0.49 +/- 0.30
Iowa State      -0.34 +/- 0.28    TCU             -0.69 +/- 0.23

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          73.93   Baylor          59.57   Iowa State      145.03   Kansas          +13.25   
Iowa State      71.97   Kansas          60.68   Oklahoma        138.24   Baylor          +11.54   
Texas Tech      71.93   West Virginia   62.34   Texas Tech      135.59   Texas Tech       +8.28   
Baylor          71.11   Texas           63.52   Kansas          134.61   West Virginia    +7.24   
Oklahoma        70.48   Texas Tech      63.66   Oklahoma State  133.21   Oklahoma         +2.72   
West Virginia   69.59   TCU             65.29   West Virginia   131.93   Texas            +0.83   
Oklahoma State  66.66   Kansas State    65.79   Baylor          130.68   Oklahoma State   +0.10   
TCU             64.39   Oklahoma State  66.55   TCU             129.68   TCU              -0.89   
Texas           64.34   Oklahoma        67.76   Kansas State    129.55   Iowa State       -1.10   
Kansas State    63.76   Iowa State      73.07   Texas           127.86   Kansas State     -2.03   

Didn't see this one coming, but apparently playing at the second-last team in the conference
helps strength of schedule, whereas playing at the last team in the conference hurts strength
of schedule.  That is, Iowa State has moved ahead of Kansas in strength of schedule.
Meanwhile, Big Ten teams have been moving up the ladder by playing each other.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Iowa State      82.06 ( 3)
Kansas          81.83 ( 5)
Oklahoma        81.37 ( 9)
Oklahoma State  81.07 (12)
Kansas State    80.93 (14)
West Virginia   80.72 (22)
Texas           79.81 (32)
Baylor          79.78 (33) 
TCU             79.49 (37)
Texas Tech      79.10 (45)

Schedule Strength Top 10
--------------------------
Minnesota       82.35 ( 1)
Michigan        82.28 ( 2)
Iowa State      82.06 ( 3)
Purdue          81.91 ( 4)
Kansas          81.83 ( 5)
Wisconsin       81.80 ( 6)
Michigan State  81.47 ( 7)
Iowa            81.46 ( 8)
Oklahoma        81.37 ( 9)
Northwestern    81.15 (10)

Michigan is playing at #7 Ohio State today, which will probably give them the top spot,
while Minnesota is playing at #25 Wisconsin, which will help their rating as well.  On
Tuesday, Purdue is at #23 Iowa, which will help them as well.  Meanwhile, Kansas has a
home game with #69 TCU on Wednesday, which is bound to hurt a little.  Playing at Texas
Tech next weekend will help.