predictions for Kansas State game

Altercation 2.0

Well, Silvio De Sousa won't even be there.  The Big 12 won't allow
suspended players to travel with the team.  But everybody else will
be there, and probably extra security as well.  I do not expect a
repeat of Altercation 1.0, but we may get a pretty good idea of just
how much the Jayhawks feel they're responsible by just how much they
might run up the score on the bottom-feeding Wildcats.  I wonder how
much McCormack will be allowed to play?  He might be the most fired-up
of any Jayhawk.

Kansas State has a home game with Iowa State to end the season, and
the Wildcats are currently favored in that contest, so Kansas State
might end conference play with a 3-15 record, but that won't be enough
to avoid last place, which represents a significant drop-off from
last season's championship tie with Texas Tech.

Kansas State has played below expectation in five of their last six
games, so the overall trend is slightly negative, but not statistically
significant.  Their mental toughness rating is effectively zero.  Taken
at face value, those cost the Wildcats a bit over a point.  Kansas has
played above expectation in their last six games, but the trend is now
effectively zero.  The Jayhawks' mental toughness rating is still
negative and of some significance, but that actually helps a bit
against a weaker opponent.  They benefit Kansas by almost 3 points.

Sagarin Predictor gives Kansas an 11.5 point margin.  Only twice has
Kansas State played more than 11.5 points above expectation, against
Alabama State and their home game with West Virginia.  Only once has
Kansas played below expectation by more than 11.5 points, and we all
know which game that was.  So that's three cases out of 55 (the
Chaminade game can't be included due to lack of a Predictor rating)
corresponding to a 5.5 percent chance of the Jayhawks losing the game.
Slightly more optimistic than the 90.1 percent chance of winning
based on the two teams' Predictor ratings and their inconsistencies.

Speaking of which, the inconsistencies are virtually identical for
the two teams.  Because one will finish below expectation by the same
amount the other finishes above expectation for this game, their
relative standing will be effectively unchanged.

Most prognosticators are more optimistic than Sagarin Predictor.  The
average is 14.7 points.  The most optimistic is Colley at 26.2 points.
Then comes Sagarin Recent Games at 20.5 points.  Next, surprisingly,
is RealTimeRPI at 19.0 points.  I say it's surprising because RealTime
uses a larger than average home court advantage.  For example, Baylor
is favored over TCU by only 3 points by RealTime because of that large
home court advantage for TCU.  If the game were in Lawrence, RealTime
would have Kansas favored by 36 points.  A 9 point home court advantage,
seriously?  Sagarin has it at 3.2 points.

The pessimist of the bunch is Dunkel, who has Kansas favored by only
8 points.  The DPPI is next at just 8.3 points.  Usually reliable
Vegas has it at 11 points.

Well, Kansas' stay at #1 across the board in the Sagarin ratings was
short-lived.  In Predictor, Duke has snuck back into the top spot with
a 93.85 rating compared to Kansas at 93.80.  And in Strength of Schedule,
Minnesota is back on top at 82.25, but Michigan has snuck in at #2 with
a rating of 82.08, compared to Kansas at 81.95.  Playing on the road is
better for the schedule strength than playing at home, but Kansas State
is ranked #83 in Predictor, whereas Minnesota is at #25 Wisconsin on
Sunday, while Michigan is at #8 Ohio State, also on Sunday, so expect
Kansas to remain behind both the Gophers and the Wolverines in Strength
of Schedule, at least for this weekend.  Minnesota is less likely to
get very far in the Big Ten tournament, but Michigan should advance,
so it looks to be a battle between Kansas and Michigan for the top
spot.

Enjoy the game, and the extracurricular activities, as the case may be.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     KSU     KU       Defensive Stats     KSU     KU
Points/Game         64.3    74.7     Opp Points/Game     65.6    60.5
Avg Score Margin    -1.2   +14.2     Opp Effective FG %  50.0    43.3
Assists/Game        12.6    14.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.6     9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.2    38.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.5    26.9
Effective FG %      47.5    54.1     Blocks/Game          2.6     5.0
Off Rebound %       27.0    30.2     Steals/Game          8.6     7.6
FTA/FGA            0.353   0.347     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.9    14.6
Turnover %          18.4    16.0

Kansas leads in thirteen of the fifteen categories.  Kansas State
steals 1.0 more balls per game and attempts slightly more free throws
per field goal attempt.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Monmouth plus the eight conference
members, two of which Kansas State has played twice (TCU, Texas Tech)
two of which Kansas has played twice (Oklahoma State, Iowa State), and
four of which both have played twice (Oklahoma, Texas, West Virginia,
Baylor), in which case only the home-home and away-away permutations
will be used, plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us eighteen
scores to compare:

KU  +55 Mon neutral (+51 neutral)
KSU +19 Mon at home (+15 neutral)
KU  +32 KSU on road (+36 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)     KU  +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)
KSU  -5 OU  on road ( -1 neutral)     KSU  +8 OU  at home ( +4 neutral)
KU  +15 KSU on road (+19 neutral)     KU   +5 KSU on road ( +9 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)     KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
KSU  -2 TCU at home ( -6 neutral)     KSU -11 TCU on road ( -7 neutral)
KU  +20 KSU on road (+24 neutral)     KU  +21 KSU on road (+25 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)     KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)
KSU -14 UT  on road (-10 neutral)     KSU -11 UT  at home (-15 neutral)
KU  +19 KSU on road (+23 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
KSU -14 TTU at home (-18 neutral)     KSU  -7 TTU on road ( -3 neutral)
KU  +13 KSU on road (+17 neutral)     KU   -2 KSU on road ( +2 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU   +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)
KSU +16 WVU at home (+12 neutral)     KSU  -9 WVU on road ( -5 neutral)
KU  -13 KSU on road ( -9 neutral)     KU  +14 KSU on road (+18 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)     KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)
KSU  -6 BU  at home (-10 neutral)     KSU -19 BU  on road (-15 neutral)
KU  -10 KSU on road ( -6 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)     KU  +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)
KSU -10 ISU on road ( -6 neutral)     KSU -10 ISU on road ( -6 neutral)
KU  +32 KSU on road (+36 neutral)     KU  +18 KSU on road (+22 neutral)

KU  +25 OSU at home (+21 neutral)     KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
KSU  -5 OSU at home ( -9 neutral)     KSU  -5 OSU at home ( -9 neutral)
KU  +26 KSU on road (+30 neutral)     KU  +24 KSU on road (+28 neutral)

KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
KU  +13 KSU on road (+17 neutral)

Fifteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while three favor Kansas State.
The average favors Kansas by 14.6 points with a scatter of 12.6 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Xavier Sneed (forward)
most points        Xavier Sneed (forward)
most rebounds      Makol Mawien (forward)
most assists       Cartier Diarra (guard)
most steals        Cartier Diarra (guard)
most blocks        Makol Mawien (forward)
most turnovers     Cartier Diarra (guard)
most fouls         Makol Mawien (forward)

Forward Montavious Murphy sat out the last two games with a knee injury.
It's unknown whether he's available to play today.  He's third in minutes
played, so represents a fairly significant contributor.  Forward James Love III
had season-ending foot surgery, but hasn't made much of a contribution this
season.

                                                          25-3           9-19
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +14.99   70   55       89       #  1   #  3    #113   # 25 
Sagarin Predictor      +11.50   68   57       90.1     #  2   #  3    # 83   # 25 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +12.53   69   56                #  1   #  3    # 91   # 25 
Sagarin Recent Games   +20.52   73   52                #  1   #  3    #169   # 25 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +18.80   72   53       93  
Massey                 +16.00   73   57       92       #  1   #  1    #137   # 31
Pomeroy                +13.10   68   55                #  1   #  1    #101   # 18
Greenfield             +11.50   71.5 60                #  1   #  1    # 90   # 42
Dunkel                 + 8.00   71.5 63.5              #  2           #116                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.00   71   60                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +10.77   71   60       84.0     #  1   #  1    # 93   # 38
Real Time              +19.00   86   67       80.2     #  1   #  1    #200   #  5 
Seven Overtimes        +18.00   75   57       99       #  1   #  3    #145   # 43
DPPI                   + 8.30   69   61       82.4     #  1   #  1    #115   # 28
ESPN BPI               +14.80                 91.3     #  1   #  7    #105   # 23
Whitlock               +15.42                          #  1   #  2    #109   # 26
Colley Matrix          +26.22                          #  1   #  1    #160   #  7
NCAA NET                                               #  1           #102
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    #109   # 28
common opponents       +14.61                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +14.7    72.0 58.1
scatter                  4.6     4.5  4.1  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 27-4.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -0.05    -1.95
HOME   # 86 NC Greensboro               74  62   +18.20    -6.20
HOME   #212 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.11   +26.89
HOME   # 66 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +16.37    -4.37
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 28 BYU                         71  56    +8.12    +6.88
NEUT   # 21 Dayton                      90  84    +7.31    -1.31
HOME   # 31 Colorado                    72  58   +12.47    +1.53
HOME   #251 Milwaukee                   95  68   +30.41    -3.41
NEUT   #225 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.67   +15.33
AWAY   # 15 Villanova                   55  56    +3.29    -4.29
AWAY   # 55 Stanford                    72  56    +8.91    +7.09
HOME   # 10 West Virginia               60  53    +8.99    -1.99
AWAY   # 59 Iowa State                  79  53    +9.03   +16.97
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +6.84   -18.84
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma                    66  52    +7.02    +6.98
AWAY   # 50 Texas                       66  57    +7.90    +1.10
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                81  60   +17.96    +3.04
HOME   # 48 Tennessee                   74  68   +14.06    -8.06
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma State              65  50    +9.00    +6.00
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                  78  75   +10.23    -7.23
HOME   # 50 Texas                       69  58   +14.36    -3.36
AWAY   # 70 TCU                         60  46   +10.64    +3.36
AWAY   # 10 West Virginia               58  49    +2.53    +6.47
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma                    87  70   +13.48    +3.52
HOME   # 59 Iowa State                  91  71   +15.49    +4.51
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      64  61    +0.38    +2.62
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma State              83  58   +15.46    +9.54
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                         +11.50             0.901
HOME   # 70 TCU                                  +17.10             0.947
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                            +3.77             0.630

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #138 North Dakota State          67  54    +7.98    +5.02
AWAY   #118 UNLV                        60  56    +0.00    +4.00
HOME   #212 Monmouth-NJ                 73  54   +13.38    +5.62
HOME   #346 Ark.-Pine Bluff             62  51   +26.78   -15.78
NEUT   # 90 Pittsburgh                  59  63    +0.48    -4.48
NEUT   #108 Bradley                     60  73    +2.55   -15.55
HOME   #332 Florida A&M                 76  58   +22.17    -4.17
HOME   # 26 Marquette                   65  73    -3.63    -4.37
HOME   #336 Alabama State               86  41   +22.59   +22.41
NEUT   # 49 Mississippi State           61  67    -3.77    -2.23
NEUT   # 99 Saint Louis                 63  66    +1.42    -4.42
HOME   #100 Tulsa                       69  67    +4.68    -2.68
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma                    61  66    -7.71    +2.71
HOME   # 70 TCU                         57  59    +2.37    -4.37
AWAY   # 50 Texas                       50  64    -6.83    -7.17
HOME   # 18 Texas Tech                  63  77    -4.50    -9.50
HOME   # 10 West Virginia               84  68    -5.74   +21.74
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                      60  81   -17.96    -3.04
AWAY   # 43 Alabama                     74  77    -7.66    +4.66
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma                    61  53    -1.25    +9.25
AWAY   # 10 West Virginia               57  66   -12.20    +3.20
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      67  73    -7.89    +1.89
AWAY   # 59 Iowa State                  63  73    -5.70    -4.30
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma State              59  64    +0.73    -5.73
AWAY   # 70 TCU                         57  68    -4.09    -6.91
AWAY   # 18 Texas Tech                  62  69   -10.96    +3.96
HOME   # 50 Texas                       59  70    -0.37   -10.63
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      66  85   -14.35    -4.65
HOME   #  2 Kansas                               -11.50             0.099
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma State                        -5.73             0.317
HOME   # 59 Iowa State                            +0.76             0.527