predictions for Oklahoma State game

Trap game?  There can be a tendency to drop a bit after an emotional
high.  And Oklahoma State has won three out of four, and four out of
six, suggesting that the Cowboys are not to be taken lightly.

The problem, of course, is that Oklahoma State is the most inconsistent
team in the Big 12.  Are we going to see the team that played almost
39 points above expectation against Mississippi, or the team that
played almost 27 points below expecation in Lubbock?  A swap of venue
in the Big 12 tends to be a little larger than the national average,
but against the Sooners, the Cowboys went from losing by 13 in Norman
to winning by 17 in Stillwater, a 30 point swing.  So as the saying
goes, your guess is as good as mine.

The average of the various predictions is 17.8 points.  Colley is the
optimist at 23.5 points, while Greenfield and Vegas are the pessimists
at 14.5 points.  The Cowboys have played five out of their last six
above expectation, but all those below expectation performances at the
beginning of the conference season (but in the middle of the regular
season) have left them with a slightly negative trend, though it's
not statistically significant.  Their mental toughness rating is also
negative and carries some significance to it, which would cost them
almost 6 points.  Meanwhile, the Kansas trend is similarly negative,
but of no significance, mainly because of the first Baylor game.
The Jayhawks' mental toughness rating is negative and has some
significance to it, but against a weaker opponent, it helps by a bit
over 3 points.

Winning four of six suggests that perhaps the Cowboys have turned the
corner, but in their most recent road games, their inconsistency has
reared its ugly head.  They didn't do so well in Morgantown, but did
extremely well in Waco until the very, very end of the game.  I don't
put a lot of stock in the game against bottom-feeder Kansas State.

Games like this are hard to predict.  The opponent is inconsistent,
it could be a trap game, but one thing is certain:  Baylor is favored
against Kansas State, TCU, and Texas Tech, and the way West Virginia
has been fading of late, the Bears could come out of Morgantown with
a win as well, which leaves Kansas with zero margin for error.  To win
the Big 12, they can't afford a meltdown against Oklahoma State.

In other news, Dunkel's rankings are out-of-date.  The three teams he
has ranked ahead of Kansas, namely Gonzaga, Duke, and Baylor, have all
lost games since his last rankings were released.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OSU     KU       Defensive Stats     OSU     KU
Points/Game         67.0    74.3     Opp Points/Game     65.9    60.6
Avg Score Margin    +1.2   +13.8     Opp Effective FG %  46.9    43.4
Assists/Game        11.7    14.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.3     8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.4    38.8     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.3    27.0
Effective FG %      46.5    54.3     Blocks/Game          3.7     5.0
Off Rebound %       28.3    29.9     Steals/Game          7.0     7.8
FTA/FGA            0.341   0.348     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.1    14.5
Turnover %          16.4    16.2

Kansas leads in fourteen of the fifteen categories.  Oklahoma State
grabs 0.4 more offensive rebounds per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Kansas City plus the eight conference
members, two of which Oklahoma State has played twice (Texas Tech, TCU)
two of which Kansas has played twice (Texas, Iowa State), and three of
which both have played twice (West Virginia, Baylor, Oklahoma), in which
case only the home-home and away-away permutations will be used, plus the
head-to-head in Stillwater, giving us seventeen scores to compare:

KU  +41 KC  neutral (+41 neutral)
OSU +18 KC  at home (+14 neutral)
KU  +31 OSU at home (+27 neutral)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
OSU -35 TTU on road (-31 neutral)     OSU  +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
KU  +34 OSU at home (+30 neutral)     KU   +4 OSU at home (  0 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU   +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)
OSU -14 WVU at home (-18 neutral)     OSU -18 WVU on road (-14 neutral)
KU  +25 OSU at home (+21 neutral)     KU  +31 OSU at home (+27 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)     KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
OSU -12 TCU on road ( -8 neutral)     OSU +15 TCU at home (+11 neutral)
KU  +30 OSU at home (+26 neutral)     KU  +11 OSU at home ( +7 neutral)

KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)     KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)
OSU +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral)     OSU +12 UT  at home ( +8 neutral)
KU   +3 OSU at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +9 OSU at home ( +5 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)     KU   +3 BU  on road ( +7 neutral)
OSU  -7 BU  at home (-11 neutral)     OSU  -8 BU  on road ( -4 neutral)
KU   -1 OSU at home ( -5 neutral)     KU  +15 OSU at home (+11 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)     KU  +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)
OSU  -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral)     OSU  -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral)
KU  +37 OSU at home (+33 neutral)     KU  +23 OSU at home (+19 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)     KU  +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)
OSU -13 OU  on road ( -9 neutral)     OSU +17 OU  at home (+13 neutral)
KU  +31 OSU at home (+27 neutral)     KU   +4 OSU at home (  0 neutral)

KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
OSU  +5 KSU on road ( +9 neutral)
KU  +12 OSU at home ( +8 neutral)

KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
KU  +23 OSU at home (+19 neutral)

Sixteen of the comparisons favor Kansas, while just one favors Oklahoma
State, and by just a single point.  The average favors Kansas by 18.94
points with a scatter of 12.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points        Cameron McGriff (forward)
most rebounds      Cameron McGriff (forward)
most assists       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals        Isaac Likekele (guard)
most blocks        Yor Anei (forward)
most turnovers     Isaac Likekele (guard)
most fouls         Yor Anei (forward)

Guard Chris Harris Jr. is out with a knee injury.  He's eighth in minutes played.
Guard Marcus Watson was suspended for conduct detrimental to the team way back in
October.

                                                          24-3          14-13
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +15.19   72   57       89       #  1   #  1    # 50   # 14 
Sagarin Predictor      +14.63   72   57       88.6     #  2   #  1    # 55   # 14 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +15.09   72   57                #  1   #  1    # 53   # 14 
Sagarin Recent Games   +16.16   72   56                #  1   #  1    # 46   # 14 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +22.06   75   53       94  
Massey                 +20.00   76   56       95       #  1   #  1    # 59   # 18
Pomeroy                +16.41   72   55                #  1   #  1    # 62   #  8
Greenfield             +14.50   74.5 60                #  1   #  1    # 62   # 24
Dunkel                 +16.00   75.5 59.5              #  4           # 92                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +14.50   74.5 60                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +14.94   74   59       91.3     #  1   #  1    # 56   # 24
Real Time              +23.00   82   59       84.9     #  1   #  1    # 96   # 20 
Seven Overtimes        +16.00   75   59       88       #  1   #  3    #117   #  8
DPPI                   +23.10   78   55       97.2     #  1   #  1    # 82   #  8
ESPN BPI               +17.90                 94.2     #  2   #  5    # 68   # 13
Whitlock               +17.99                          #  1   #  2    # 66   #  6
Colley Matrix          +23.46                          #  1   #  1    # 72   # 10
NCAA NET                                               #  1           # 67
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    # 76   # 13
common opponents       +18.94                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +17.8    74.6 57.3
scatter                  3.2     2.8  2.2  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 27-4.
Toughest remaining game is the season finale in Lubbock.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -0.75    -1.25
HOME   # 80 NC Greensboro               74  62   +17.49    -5.49
HOME   #208 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.49   +27.51
HOME   # 68 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +16.27    -4.27
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 25 BYU                         71  56    +7.75    +7.25
NEUT   # 22 Dayton                      90  84    +7.16    -1.16
HOME   # 31 Colorado                    72  58   +11.72    +2.28
HOME   #252 Milwaukee                   95  68   +30.09    -3.09
NEUT   #227 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.41   +15.59
AWAY   # 18 Villanova                   55  56    +3.37    -4.37
AWAY   # 56 Stanford                    72  56    +8.57    +7.43
HOME   #  7 West Virginia               60  53    +7.97    -0.97
AWAY   # 60 Iowa State                  79  53    +8.96   +17.04
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +6.71   -18.71
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma                    66  52    +7.09    +6.91
AWAY   # 54 Texas                       66  57    +8.01    +0.99
HOME   # 81 Kansas State                81  60   +17.53    +3.47
HOME   # 45 Tennessee                   74  68   +13.32    -7.32
AWAY   # 55 Oklahoma State              65  50    +8.23    +6.77
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                  78  75    +9.49    -6.49
HOME   # 54 Texas                       69  58   +14.41    -3.41
AWAY   # 70 TCU                         60  46   +10.27    +3.73
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia               58  49    +1.57    +7.43
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma                    87  70   +13.49    +3.51
HOME   # 60 Iowa State                  91  71   +15.36    +4.64
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      64  61    +0.31    +2.69
HOME   # 55 Oklahoma State                       +14.63             0.886
AWAY   # 81 Kansas State                         +11.13             0.890
HOME   # 70 TCU                                  +16.67             0.939
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                            +3.09             0.607

Here is Oklahoma State's season; they're actually projected to win
two more games:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #147 Oral Roberts                80  75   +11.79    -6.79
HOME   #227 Kansas City(UMKC)           69  51   +17.18    +0.82
AWAY   #142 College of Charleston       73  54    +4.83   +14.17
HOME   # 75 Yale                        64  57    +5.71    +1.29
HOME   #228 Western Michigan            70  63   +17.34   -10.34
NEUT   # 53 Syracuse                    86  72    -0.40   +14.40
NEUT   # 73 Mississippi                 78  37    +2.29   +38.71
HOME   # 63 Georgetown                  74  81    +4.10   -11.10
HOME   # 36 Wichita State               61  80    +1.16   -20.16
AWAY   # 21 Houston                     61  55    -7.49   +13.49
NEUT   # 33 Minnesota                   66  86    -2.41   -17.59
HOME   #336 SE Louisiana                82  31   +25.56   +25.44
AWAY   # 15 Texas Tech                  50  85    -8.34   -26.66
HOME   #  7 West Virginia               41  55    -3.46   -10.54
AWAY   # 70 TCU                         40  52    -1.16   -10.84
HOME   # 54 Texas                       64  76    +2.98   -14.98
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      68  75    -4.72    -2.28
AWAY   # 60 Iowa State                  82  89    -2.47    -4.53
AWAY   #124 Texas A&M                   73  62    +3.58    +7.42
HOME   #  2 Kansas                      50  65    -8.23    -6.77
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma                    69  82    -4.34    -8.66
HOME   # 70 TCU                         72  57    +5.24    +9.76
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      70  78   -11.12    +3.12
AWAY   # 81 Kansas State                64  59    -0.30    +5.30
HOME   # 15 Texas Tech                  73  70    -1.94    +4.94
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia               47  65    -9.86    -8.14
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma                    83  66    +2.06   +14.94
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -14.63             0.114
HOME   # 60 Iowa State                            +3.93             0.612
HOME   # 81 Kansas State                          +6.10             0.692
AWAY   # 54 Texas                                 -3.42             0.398