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Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Iowa State game
- asteroid
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4 years 2 months ago #24887
by asteroid
Looking at just the last ten games, Kansas has been amazingly
consistent, playing all ten within 8 points of expectation.
Indeed, 20 out of the 24 games against Division I opponents have
been within 8 points of expectation. There have been only four
anomalies, three of them on the plus side, and just one stinker,
that infamous Baylor home game. Just goes to show you that while
offense can run hot or cold during any single game, defense is a
much more consistent aspect of the game, and Pomeroy still has
Kansas as the #1 defensive team in the nation.
Iowa State is more inconsistent than the national average, a value
that went up after their most recent two games. They lost by 29
on the road against Oklahoma and won by 29 at home against Texas,
playing about 25 points below and above expectation, respectively.
One might think that the below expectation game would occur when
you lose a player to injury, but just the opposite happened. Go
figure. Maybe they were playing their hearts out for their fallen
teammate. Or maybe it was because Texas had lost Sims to injury.
It was only the second time this season they played above expectation
by enough to overcome the 14.5 point margin by which Sagarin Predictor
favors Kansas. That's 3 instances out of 49 total games (which
excludes Chaminade, for which we don't have a Sagarin rating) for a
94 percent probability of victory for Kansas.
Neither the trend nor mental toughness statistics for Iowa State
have any significance, yet taken at face value, they cost the
Cyclones 4 points. The mental toughness statistic for Kansas
retains its significance, but it helps the Jayhawks by a couple
of points by virtue of Iowa State being a weaker opponent.
The 18.5 point average of the various predictions is even more
favorable than Sagarin Predictor. The most optimistic is RealTimeRPI,
what with its larger than average home court advantage has Kansas
favored by a whopping 30 points. Colley has it at 26 points, while
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis puts it at 22.5 points. As it turns
out, Sagarin Predictor represents the most pessimistic prediction of
the lot.
With Halliburton out, it's natural to expect the actual margin to
be even larger.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats ISU KU Defensive Stats ISU KU
Points/Game 73.8 74.1 Opp Points/Game 71.9 60.1
Avg Score Margin +1.9 +14.0 Opp Effective FG % 50.8 42.9
Assists/Game 14.7 14.2 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.9 8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.9 39.0 Def Rebounds/Gm 23.5 27.1
Effective FG % 50.6 53.7 Blocks/Game 4.4 5.2
Off Rebound % 27.8 29.6 Steals/Game 7.7 7.9
FTA/FGA 0.282 0.357 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.5 14.5
Turnover % 15.8 16.2
Kansas leads in twelve of the fifteen categories, with offensive
rebounds per game being a wash.
Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Kansas City plus the eight conference
members, one of which Iowa State has played twice (Baylor), one of which
Kansas has played twice (West Virginia), and two of which both have played
twice (Oklahoma, Texas), in which case only the home-home and away-away
permutations will be used, plus the head-to-head in Ames, giving us
fourteen scores to compare:
KU +41 KC neutral (+41 neutral)
ISU +18 KC at home (+14 neutral)
KU +31 ISU at home (+27 neutral)
KU +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
ISU -2 TCU on road ( +2 neutral)
KU +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)
KU +17 OU at home (+13 neutral) KU +14 OU on road (+18 neutral)
ISU +13 OU at home ( +9 neutral) ISU -29 OU on road (-25 neutral)
KU +8 ISU at home ( +4 neutral) KU +47 ISU at home (+43 neutral)
KU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral) KU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral)
ISU -13 BU on road ( -9 neutral) ISU -14 BU at home (-18 neutral)
KU -3 ISU at home ( -7 neutral) KU +6 ISU at home ( +2 neutral)
KU +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
ISU -20 TTU on road (-16 neutral)
KU +19 ISU at home (+15 neutral)
KU +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
ISU +7 OSU at home ( +3 neutral)
KU +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)
KU +9 UT on road (+13 neutral) KU +11 UT at home ( +7 neutral)
ISU -4 UT on road ( 0 neutral) ISU +29 UT at home (+25 neutral)
KU +17 ISU at home (+13 neutral) KU -14 ISU at home (-18 neutral)
KU +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral) KU +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
ISU -15 WVU on road (-11 neutral) ISU -15 WVU on road (-11 neutral)
KU +28 ISU at home (+24 neutral) KU +18 ISU at home (+14 neutral)
KU +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
ISU +10 KSU at home ( +6 neutral)
KU +15 ISU at home (+11 neutral)
KU +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
KU +34 ISU at home (+30 neutral)
Only two of the comparisons favor Iowa State, while twelve favor Kansas, some
by considerable margins. As usual, the Baylor comparison is one of the two
that favors Iowa State, but the most favorable comparison for Iowa State is
the Texas home game, which is the Cyclones' most recent game, which they
played without Halliburton, no less. The average, however, is 17.6 points
in favor of Kansas, with a scatter of 15.4 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Tyrese Halliburton (guard)
most points Tyrese Halliburton (guard)
most rebounds Tyrese Halliburton (guard)
most assists Tyrese Halliburton (guard)
most steals Tyrese Halliburton (guard)
most blocks George Conditt IV (forward)
most turnovers Tyrese Halliburton (guard)
most fouls George Conditt IV (forward)
Halliburton is out for the rest of the season with a broken wrist, which would
seem to take away Iowa State's main weapon. Yet somehow without him, the
Cyclones managed to play 25 points above expectation against Texas on Saturday.
I suspect it has a lot to do with Texas lacking Sims. Still, it would be a
mistake to take the Cyclones for granted in today's game.
22-3 11-14
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Iowa State
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +15.38 77 61 89 # 1 # 2 # 57 # 8
Sagarin Predictor +14.53 76 62 90.8 # 2 # 2 # 54 # 8
Sagarin Golden Mean +15.14 77 61.5 # 2 # 2 # 55 # 8
Sagarin Recent Games +16.35 77 61 # 3 # 2 # 71 # 8
Sagarin Eigenvector +22.51 80 58 95
Massey +19.00 80 61 95 # 2 # 1 # 89 # 19
Pomeroy +17.04 77 60 # 1 # 1 # 71 # 12
Greenfield +16.00 79 63 # 2 # 1 # 60 # 23
Dunkel +18.50 79 61 # 3 # 77
Vegas (via Dunkel) +15.50 80.5 65
Dolphin Predictive +15.45 79 64 91.3 # 1 # 1 # 72 # 27
Real Time +30.00 88 58 91.6 # 1 # 1 #143 # 12
Seven Overtimes +16.00 78 62 91 # 1 # 4 #127 # 45
DPPI +20.70 81 60 97.4 # 1 # 1 # 73 # 26
ESPN BPI +19.00 94.7 # 2 # 4 # 76 # 9
Whitlock +17.99 # 1 # 3 # 69 # 11
Colley Matrix +26.11 # 1 # 1 #109 # 5
NCAA NET # 4 # 70
LRMC # 2 # 1 # 74 # 27
common opponents +17.57
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +18.5 79.1 61.3
scatter 4.1 3.0 2.0
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 27-4.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses. Toughest game would be
the road game with Baylor.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Duke 66 68 -1.22 -0.78
HOME # 69 NC Greensboro 74 62 +16.08 -4.08
HOME #210 Monmouth-NJ 112 57 +27.64 +27.36
HOME # 68 East Tennessee State(ETS 75 63 +15.94 -3.94
Div2 Chaminade 93 63
NEUT # 27 BYU 71 56 +7.93 +7.07
NEUT # 20 Dayton 90 84 +6.99 -0.99
HOME # 29 Colorado 72 58 +11.24 +2.76
HOME #250 Milwaukee 95 68 +29.83 -2.83
NEUT #228 Kansas City(UMKC) 98 57 +25.65 +15.35
AWAY # 21 Villanova 55 56 +3.89 -4.89
AWAY # 65 Stanford 72 56 +9.52 +6.48
HOME # 6 West Virginia 60 53 +7.80 -0.80
AWAY # 54 Iowa State 79 53 +8.13 +17.87
HOME # 5 Baylor 55 67 +7.12 -19.12
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma 66 52 +6.66 +7.34
AWAY # 57 Texas 66 57 +8.68 +0.32
HOME # 81 Kansas State 81 60 +17.10 +3.90
HOME # 42 Tennessee 74 68 +12.93 -6.93
AWAY # 58 Oklahoma State 65 50 +8.72 +6.28
HOME # 16 Texas Tech 78 75 +9.55 -6.55
HOME # 57 Texas 69 58 +15.08 -4.08
AWAY # 75 TCU 60 46 +10.37 +3.63
AWAY # 6 West Virginia 58 49 +1.40 +7.60
HOME # 44 Oklahoma 87 70 +13.06 +3.94
HOME # 54 Iowa State +14.53 0.908
AWAY # 5 Baylor +0.72 0.534
HOME # 58 Oklahoma State +15.12 0.889
AWAY # 81 Kansas State +10.70 0.874
HOME # 75 TCU +16.77 0.937
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech +3.15 0.611
Here is Iowa State's season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #353 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.) 110 74 +35.97 +0.03
AWAY # 79 Oregon State 74 80 -0.77 -5.23
HOME #170 Northern Illinois 70 52 +13.26 +4.74
HOME #243 Southern Miss 73 45 +18.11 +9.89
NEUT # 11 Michigan 76 83 -5.82 -1.18
NEUT # 45 Alabama 104 89 -1.43 +16.43
NEUT # 12 Seton Hall 76 84 -5.61 -2.39
HOME #228 Kansas City(UMKC) 79 61 +17.52 +0.48
HOME # 12 Seton Hall 76 66 -2.41 +12.41
HOME # 22 Iowa 68 84 -0.67 -15.33
HOME #265 Fort Wayne(PFW) 89 59 +19.48 +10.52
HOME #330 Florida A&M 68 70 +25.17 -27.17
AWAY # 75 TCU 79 81 -0.96 -1.04
HOME # 2 Kansas 53 79 -8.13 -17.87
HOME # 44 Oklahoma 81 68 +1.73 +11.27
AWAY # 5 Baylor 55 68 -10.61 -2.39
AWAY # 16 Texas Tech 52 72 -8.18 -11.82
HOME # 58 Oklahoma State 89 82 +3.79 +3.21
AWAY # 24 Auburn 76 80 -6.87 +2.87
HOME # 5 Baylor 53 67 -4.21 -9.79
AWAY # 57 Texas 68 72 -2.65 -1.35
AWAY # 6 West Virginia 61 76 -9.93 -5.07
HOME # 81 Kansas State 73 63 +5.77 +4.23
AWAY # 44 Oklahoma 61 90 -4.67 -24.33
HOME # 57 Texas 81 52 +3.75 +25.25
AWAY # 2 Kansas -14.53 0.092
HOME # 16 Texas Tech -1.78 0.443
HOME # 75 TCU +5.44 0.670
AWAY # 58 Oklahoma State -2.61 0.424
HOME # 6 West Virginia -3.53 0.380
AWAY # 81 Kansas State -0.63 0.477
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