projected Big 12 standings, Round 12

TCU's home win over Kansas State, coupled with Texas' loss at Iowa State, caused the Horned Frogs
to leapfrog the Longhorns into sixth place.  Baylor's home win over West Virginia allowed the
Bears to pick up a larger fractional win than did Kansas' home win over Oklahoma, giving Baylor
the edge for the top spot.  Both the Bears and Jayhawks are projected to go 16-2 in conference
play.

                      Init.  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  Rd 12  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  5  Baylor          10.99  14.59  14.77  15.00  15.13  15.46  15.87   12  0  @OU  (Tu)   BU  by  2.8
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.77  14.89  14.97  15.20  15.67  15.75   11  1   ISU (Mo)   KU  by 14.5
# 16  Texas Tech       9.33   9.93   9.88  10.11  10.63  11.01  10.35    7  5   KSU (We)   TTU by 10.8
#  6  West Virginia   10.73  11.37  11.56  11.76  11.03  10.51  10.14    6  6   OSU (Tu)   WVU by 10.5
# 44  Oklahoma         7.19   7.47   7.97   7.61   8.37   8.86   8.74    6  6   BU  (Tu)   
# 75  TCU              7.46   7.58   7.33   6.82   6.60   6.34   6.79    5  7  @UT  (We)   
# 57  Texas            7.25   7.58   7.95   8.05   7.54   7.14   6.61    4  8   TCU (We)   UT  by  4.9
# 54  Iowa State       8.35   6.72   6.24   6.04   6.40   5.96   6.49    4  8  @KU  (Mo)   
# 59  Oklahoma State   8.95   4.52   3.93   4.47   4.31   4.87   5.50    3  9  @WVU (Tu)   
# 82  Kansas State     5.30   5.47   5.48   5.17   4.79   4.18   3.76    2 10  @TTU (We)   

RealTimeRPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 12.  Massey retains the season lead.
My trend analysis was the worst, with Dunkel second-worst.  Dunkel is still bringing up the rear
on the season (Whitlock is not eligible for season honors).

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over OU     12.8  14.0  13.7  10.5  14.0  11.0  13.1  16.6  14.3  16.0  14.0  17.0  15.0  13.8  10.7
BU  over WVU     3.7   8.0   5.2   5.5   8.5   5.0   3.7   7.9   4.9   6.7   5.0  12.0   4.0   4.7   6.0
TCU over KSU     3.0   5.0   3.2   3.0   4.5   3.0   2.6   8.8   4.4   3.4   5.0  15.0   3.2   4.0   4.8
TTU over OSU     3.0   4.0   3.5   3.0  10.0   3.5   2.8   2.4   3.4   3.3   5.0  -2.0   3.6   2.0   7.3
ISU over UT      2.5   3.0   2.4   1.5  -2.0   1.0   3.1  -4.0   2.3   3.7  -3.0   4.0   3.1   3.5   0.7

       Reality  Error                                                                                  
       -------  -------2.5----------------1-----3-----------1-----------1-----2----1.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          17     4.2   3.0   3.3   6.5   3.0   6.0   3.9   0.4   2.7   1.0   3.0   0.0   2.0   3.2   6.3
          11     7.3   3.0   5.8   5.5   2.5   6.0   7.3   3.1   6.1   4.3   6.0   1.0   7.0   6.3   5.0
          11     8.0   6.0   7.8   8.0   6.5   8.0   8.4   2.2   6.6   7.6   6.0   4.0   7.8   7.0   6.2
          -3     6.0   7.0   6.5   6.0  13.0   6.5   5.8   5.4   6.4   6.3   8.0   1.0   6.6   5.0  10.3
          29    26.5  26.0  26.6  27.5  31.0  28.0  25.9  33.0  26.7  25.3  32.0  25.0  25.9  25.5  28.3

total           52.0  45.0  50.0  53.5  56.0  54.5  51.3  44.1  48.5  44.5  55.0  31.0  49.3  47.0  56.1
previous       522.4 497.0 509.2 516.0 596.0 500.0 523.9 583.5  74.3 499.9 575.0 581.0 514.3 523.2 527.4
cumulative     574.4 542.0 559.2 569.5 652.0 554.5 575.2 627.6 122.8 544.4 630.0 612.0 563.6 570.2 583.5
per game         9.6   9.0   9.3   9.5  10.9   9.2   9.6  10.5  12.3   9.1  10.5  10.2   9.4   9.5   9.7

Only one road win was projected for Round 12, and it didn't happen, as the Red Raiders'
hot three-point shooting didn't carry over during their trip to Stillwater.  Only one
road win is projected for Round 13, as Baylor travels to Norman.  We're right at the
long-term average of one road win in three games.

Road wins (20 out of 60)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
6 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU UT    0 Baylor                              +6 Baylor        
6 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU TCU WVU   1 Kansas         BU                   +5 Kansas        
2 Texas          OSU TCU                   1 Oklahoma       KU                   +1 Texas Tech    
2 Texas Tech     KSU UT                    1 Texas Tech     BU                    0 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                        1 West Virginia  KU                    0 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma State KSU                       2 Iowa State     KU  BU               -1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                       2 TCU            UT  KU               -2 Texas         
1 West Virginia  OSU                       4 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU  OSU      -2 Iowa State    
0 Iowa State                               4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU       -3 Oklahoma State
0 Kansas State                             4 Texas          OU  KU  TTU BU       -4 Kansas State  

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.29    Baylor            7.42    
Baylor          +1.64    Kansas State      9.32    
West Virginia   +1.06    Kansas            9.37    
Texas Tech      +0.73    Oklahoma         10.00    
Oklahoma        +0.24    West Virginia    10.77    
Oklahoma State  +0.03    Texas            11.35    
TCU             -0.71    Iowa State       12.29    
Iowa State      -0.97    TCU              12.38    
Kansas State    -1.00    Texas Tech       12.69    
Texas           -2.27    Oklahoma State   14.76    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.40 +/- 0.35    Baylor          +0.25 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        +0.35 +/- 0.27    Oklahoma        +0.11 +/- 0.21
Baylor          +0.24 +/- 0.22    Texas Tech      +0.08 +/- 0.24
Kansas State    +0.06 +/- 0.26    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.18
West Virginia   -0.10 +/- 0.30    Iowa State      -0.12 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma State  -0.15 +/- 0.42    Texas           -0.18 +/- 0.23
Kansas          -0.16 +/- 0.28    West Virginia   -0.26 +/- 0.28
Iowa State      -0.18 +/- 0.35    Kansas          -0.36 +/- 0.25
Texas           -0.37 +/- 0.31    Oklahoma State  -0.46 +/- 0.34
TCU             -0.58 +/- 0.35    TCU             -0.79 +/- 0.23

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          73.75   Baylor          58.71   Iowa State      145.68   Kansas          +13.29   
Iowa State      73.32   Kansas          60.46   Oklahoma        139.60   Baylor          +12.46   
Texas Tech      72.84   West Virginia   62.16   Texas Tech      136.60   Texas Tech       +9.08   
Oklahoma        71.44   Texas Tech      63.76   Kansas          134.21   West Virginia    +8.80   
Baylor          71.17   Texas           64.48   West Virginia   133.12   Oklahoma         +3.28   
West Virginia   70.96   Kansas State    64.88   Oklahoma State  133.08   Iowa State       +0.96   
Oklahoma State  66.88   TCU             65.00   Baylor          129.88   Oklahoma State   +0.68   
TCU             64.42   Oklahoma State  66.20   TCU             129.42   TCU              -0.58   
Kansas State    64.16   Oklahoma        68.16   Kansas State    129.04   Kansas State     -0.72   
Texas           63.64   Iowa State      72.36   Texas           128.12   Texas            -0.84   

Minnesota is at 82.13, and a Kansas home game with Iowa State is unlikely to boost
the Jayhawks' strength of schedule.  However, a road game against Baylor will
provide a big boost, so Kansas should be back in the top spot next weekend.

Schedule Strength 
-------------------------- 
Kansas          82.00 ( 2) 
Iowa State      80.87 ( 8) 
Oklahoma State  80.74 (10)
Oklahoma        80.58 (11) 
West Virginia   80.36 (15) 
Texas           79.68 (26) 
Kansas State    79.57 (29) 
Baylor          78.47 (43) 
Texas Tech      78.29 (47) 
TCU             78.29 (48)