predictions for Oklahoma game

I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS!

Sagarin Predictor has Kansas favored by 12.77 points.  Only once this
season has Oklahoma played more than 12.77 points above expectation,
but it was their most recent outing against Iowa State.  The immediately
preceding outing against West Virginia came close, as did their home
game with TCU.  And of course Kansas has played below expectation by
more than 12.77 points just once, that infamous Baylor home game.  So
we have two examples out of 47, suggesting that Kansas has a 96 percent
probability of winning the game.

Kansas still has a negative trend, though it is not statistically
significant.  The negative mental toughness rating has some significance
to it, but it helps Kansas by a couple points against a weaker opponent.
The last two games have given Oklahoma a positive trend of some
significance, which benefits them by about 6 points.

The various predictions average 13.8 points.   The most optimistic is
RealTimeRPI at 17 points, but he uses a larger than average home court
advantage.  The pessimist is Greenfield, who has Kansas by only 10.5
points.

Enough chit-chat.  Let's see if can grab a nap before the game.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OU      KU       Defensive Stats     OU      KU
Points/Game         71.7    73.5     Opp Points/Game     67.2    59.7
Avg Score Margin    +4.5   +13.8     Opp Effective FG %  46.7    43.0
Assists/Game        12.2    14.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      7.1     8.9
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.7    38.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.6    26.9
Effective FG %      49.1    53.6     Blocks/Game          3.8     5.1
Off Rebound %       21.4    29.6     Steals/Game          6.2     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.304   0.364     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.1    14.6
Turnover %          13.8    16.4

Kansas leads in thirteen of the fifteen categories.

Common Opponents
================
There are nine common opponents, Stanford plus the eight conference
members, two of which Oklahoma has played twice (Kansas State, Iowa State)
and two of which Kansas has played twice (Texas, West Virginia) plus
the head-to-head in Norman, giving us fourteen scores to compare:

KU  +16 Sta on road (+20 neutral)
OU  -19 Sta neutral (-19 neutral)
KU  +43 OU  at home (+39 neutral)

KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)     KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
OU   +5 KSU at home ( +1 neutral)     OU   -8 KSU on road ( -4 neutral)
KU  +20 OU  at home (+16 neutral)     KU  +25 OU  at home (+21 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)     KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)
OU  +10 UT  on road (+14 neutral)     OU  +10 UT  on road (+14 neutral)
KU   +3 OU  at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   -3 OU  at home ( -7 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)     KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
OU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)     OU  +29 ISU at home (+25 neutral)
KU  +43 OU  at home (+39 neutral)     KU   +9 OU  at home ( +5 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
OU  +20 TCU at home (+16 neutral)
KU   +6 OU  at home ( +2 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)
OU   -4 BU  on road (  0 neutral)
KU  -12 OU  at home (-16 neutral)

KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
OU  +13 OSU at home ( +9 neutral)
KU  +14 OU  at home (+10 neutral)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
OU   -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral)
KU   +7 OU  at home ( +3 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU   +9 WVU on road (+13 neutral)
OU  +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral)     OU  +10 WVU at home ( +6 neutral)
KU   +1 OU  at home ( -3 neutral)     KU  +11 OU  at home ( +7 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)
KU  +22 OU  at home (+18 neutral)

Only two of the comparisons favor Oklahoma, while twelve favor Kansas, some
by considerable margins.  As usual, the Baylor comparison is the most favorable
for Oklahoma.  The average is 13.5 points, with a scatter of 15.9 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Austin Reaves (guard)
most points        Brady Manek (forward)
most rebounds      Kristian Doolittle (forward)
most assists       Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most steals        Kristian Doolittle (forward)
most blocks        Kur Kuath (forward)
most turnovers     Austin Reaves (guard)
most fouls         Austin Reaves (guard)

                                                          21-3           16-8
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +12.46   71   59       85       #  1   #  1    # 34   # 22 
Sagarin Predictor      +12.77   72   59       90.3     #  2   #  1    # 42   # 22 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +12.49   71   59                #  2   #  1    # 35   # 22 
Sagarin Recent Games   +12.14   71   59                #  3   #  1    # 30   # 22 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +15.41   73   57       89  
Massey                 +14.00   74   60       90       #  2   #  1    # 31   # 16
Pomeroy                +13.69   72   58                #  1   #  1    # 36   # 15
Greenfield             +10.50   74   63                #  1   #  1    # 38   # 22
Dunkel                 +14.00   75   61                #  3           # 49                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.00   74   63                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +13.11   75   62       88.0     #  1   #  1    # 36   # 21
Real Time              +17.00   76   59       78.0     #  1   #  1    # 45   # 46 
Seven Overtimes        +14.00   75   61       85       #  1   #  4    #115   # 25
DPPI                   +14.70   75   60.5     94.3     #  1   #  1    # 36   # 15
ESPN BPI               +16.00                 92.2     #  3   #  3    # 51   # 24
Whitlock               +14.27                          #  1   #  5    # 42   # 14
Colley Matrix          +16.58                          #  1   #  1    # 38   # 24
NCAA NET                                               #  4           # 45
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    # 34   # 16
common opponents       +13.50                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +13.8    73.4 60.0
scatter                  1.8     1.7  1.8  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is up to 27-4.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be
the road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -0.90    -1.10
HOME   # 74 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.54    -4.54
HOME   #208 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.58   +27.42
HOME   # 63 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.49    -3.49
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 26 BYU                         71  56    +7.76    +7.24
NEUT   # 20 Dayton                      90  84    +6.92    -0.92
HOME   # 30 Colorado                    72  58   +11.50    +2.50
HOME   #249 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.65    -2.65
NEUT   #234 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.81   +15.19
AWAY   # 22 Villanova                   55  56    +4.12    -5.12
AWAY   # 65 Stanford                    72  56    +9.32    +6.68
HOME   #  7 West Virginia               60  53    +7.68    -0.68
AWAY   # 58 Iowa State                  79  53    +8.63   +17.37
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +7.23   -19.23
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma                    66  52    +6.37    +7.63
AWAY   # 54 Texas                       66  57    +7.95    +1.05
HOME   # 76 Kansas State                81  60   +16.88    +4.12
HOME   # 37 Tennessee                   74  68   +12.55    -6.55
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma State              65  50    +8.92    +6.08
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                  78  75    +9.13    -6.13
HOME   # 54 Texas                       69  58   +14.35    -3.35
AWAY   # 83 TCU                         60  46   +10.70    +3.30
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia               58  49    +1.28    +7.72
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma                             +12.77             0.903
HOME   # 58 Iowa State                           +15.03             0.926
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                +0.83             0.539
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma State                       +15.32             0.888
AWAY   # 76 Kansas State                         +10.48             0.866
HOME   # 83 TCU                                  +17.10             0.938
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            +2.73             0.595

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #182 UTSA                        85  67   +15.81    +2.19
NEUT   # 31 Minnesota                   71  62    -1.10   +10.10
AWAY   # 72 Oregon State                77  69    +0.49    +7.51
HOME   #196 William & Mary              75  70   +17.01   -12.01
HOME   #349 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     91  64   +33.44    -6.44
NEUT   # 65 Stanford                    54  73    +2.95   -21.95
NEUT   # 88 Missouri                    77  66    +5.03    +5.97
AWAY   # 97 North Texas                 82  80    +3.17    -1.17
AWAY   # 41 Wichita State               75  80    -3.22    -1.78
AWAY   # 32 Creighton                   73  83    -4.28    -5.72
HOME   #121 Central Florida(UCF)        53  52   +11.53   -10.53
HOME   #240 UTRGV                       91  72   +19.71    -0.71
HOME   # 76 Kansas State                66  61    +7.31    -2.31
AWAY   # 54 Texas                       72  62    -1.62   +11.62
AWAY   # 58 Iowa State                  68  81    -0.94   -12.06
HOME   #  2 Kansas                      52  66    -6.37    -7.63
HOME   # 83 TCU                         83  63    +7.53   +12.47
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                      57  61    -8.74    +4.74
HOME   # 47 Mississippi State           63  62    +3.65    -2.65
AWAY   # 76 Kansas State                53  61    +0.91    -8.91
HOME   # 62 Oklahoma State              82  69    +5.75    +7.25
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                  61  69    -6.84    -1.16
HOME   #  7 West Virginia               69  59    -1.89   +11.89
HOME   # 58 Iowa State                  90  61    +5.46   +23.54
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -12.77             0.097
HOME   #  5 Baylor                                -2.34             0.396
AWAY   # 62 Oklahoma State                        -0.65             0.480
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                            -0.44             0.485
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                         -8.29             0.215
HOME   # 54 Texas                                 +4.78             0.678
AWAY   # 83 TCU                                   +1.13             0.539