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projected Big 12 standings, Round 11

  • asteroid
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9 months 1 week ago #24845 by asteroid
Oklahoma State's road win in Manhattan caused the two bottom feeders to swap places.  Texas Tech's
demolition of TCU (59 percent from beyond the arc, are you kidding me?), coupled with West Virginia's
home loss to Kansas, was enough for the Red Raiders to climb into third place at the Mountaineers'
expense.  No other changes in the projected standings.

                      Init.  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  Rd 11  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.36  14.77  14.89  14.97  15.20  15.67   10  1   OU  (Sa)   KU  by 12.9
#  5  Baylor          10.99  14.05  14.59  14.77  15.00  15.13  15.46   11  0   WVU (Sa)   BU  by  3.7
# 13  Texas Tech       9.33   9.31   9.93   9.88  10.11  10.63  11.01    7  4  @OSU (Sa)   TTU by  3.0
#  7  West Virginia   10.73  11.91  11.37  11.56  11.76  11.03  10.51    6  5  @BU  (Sa)   
# 42  Oklahoma         7.19   7.93   7.47   7.97   7.61   8.37   8.86    6  5  @KU  (Sa)   
# 54  Texas            7.25   6.62   7.58   7.95   8.05   7.54   7.14    4  7  @ISU (Sa)   
# 78  TCU              7.46   8.49   7.58   7.33   6.82   6.60   6.34    4  7   KSU (Sa)   TCU by  3.1
# 58  Iowa State       8.35   7.44   6.72   6.24   6.04   6.40   5.96    3  8   UT  (Sa)   ISU by  2.5
# 63  Oklahoma State   8.95   5.06   4.52   3.93   4.47   4.31   4.87    2  9   TTU (Sa)   
# 76  Kansas State     5.30   4.83   5.47   5.48   5.17   4.79   4.18    2  9  @TCU (Sa)   

Dunkel took honors for best prognostications in Round 11, largely by predicting the largest
margin of victory by Oklahoma over Iowa State.  Massey retains the season lead.  The worst
predictions came from my home court adjustment to Sagarin Predictor.  Dunkel is still pulling
up the rear for the season.  Whitlock is back in the fold, but is ineligible for any season
honors due to the absence of predictions before this point.

Predictions                                                                                             
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
TTU over TCU     9.3  11.0   9.4   9.5   6.5  10.0   8.7   3.5   9.7  11.5   3.0  13.0   9.5  10.3  11.9
OU  over ISU     4.1   7.0   5.8  10.0  15.0  10.0   4.8  12.2   6.5   6.6   2.0  13.0   5.0   5.1   7.2
BU  over UT      3.4   8.0   6.5   5.5   3.5   5.5   4.6   8.0   7.6   6.6   9.0  -2.0   7.4   2.4   7.7
KSU over OSU     2.0   4.0   2.2   3.0  -1.5   3.5   2.4  -1.2   2.1   1.9  -3.0  -2.0   1.3   3.0   4.6
KU  over WVU     1.0   3.0   1.1  -2.0   4.0  -2.0   0.6   3.3   1.2  -0.2   4.0  -5.0   1.7   0.0  -2.1

       Reality  Error                                                                                  
       -------  -------2.5----------------1-----3-----------1-----------1-----2----0.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  Whit  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          46    36.7  35.0  36.6  36.5  39.5  36.0  37.3  42.5  36.3  34.5  43.0  33.0  36.5  35.7  34.1
          29    24.9  22.0  23.2  19.0  14.0  19.0  24.2  16.8  22.5  22.4  27.0  16.0  24.0  23.9  21.8
           7     3.6   1.0   0.5   1.5   3.5   1.5   2.4   1.0   0.6   0.4   2.0   9.0   0.4   4.6   0.7
          -5     7.0   9.0   7.2   8.0   3.5   8.5   7.4   3.8   7.1   6.9   2.0   3.0   6.3   8.0   9.6
           9     8.0   6.0   7.9  11.0   5.0  11.0   8.4   5.7   7.8   9.2   5.0  14.0   7.3   9.0  11.1

total           80.2  73.0  75.4  76.0  65.5  76.0  79.7  69.8  74.3  73.4  79.0  75.0  74.5  81.2  77.3
previous       442.2 424.0 433.8 440.0 530.5 424.0 444.2 513.7   0.0 426.5 496.0 506.0 439.8 442.0 450.1
cumulative     522.4 497.0 509.2 516.0 596.0 500.0 523.9 583.5  74.3 499.9 575.0 581.0 514.3 523.2 527.4
per game         9.5   9.0   9.3   9.4  10.8   9.1   9.5  10.6  14.9   9.1  10.5  10.6   9.4   9.5   9.6

Two road wins were projected for Round 11, but three happened, as Oklahoma State pulled
off the upset in the Octogon.  Only one road win is projected for Round 12, as Texas Tech
goes to Stillwater.  Will the Red Raiders dismantle the Cowboys the way they did the
Horned Frogs on Monday?

Road wins (20 out of 55)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
6 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU UT    0 Baylor                              +6 Baylor        
6 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU TCU WVU   1 Kansas         BU                   +5 Kansas        
2 Texas          OSU TCU                   1 Oklahoma       KU                   +1 Texas Tech    
2 Texas Tech     KSU UT                    1 Texas Tech     BU                    0 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                        1 West Virginia  KU                    0 Oklahoma      
1 Oklahoma State KSU                       2 Iowa State     KU  BU               -1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                       2 TCU            UT  KU               -2 Texas         
1 West Virginia  OSU                       4 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU  OSU      -2 Iowa State    
0 Iowa State                               4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU       -3 Oklahoma State
0 Kansas State                             4 Texas          OU  KU  TTU BU       -4 Kansas State  

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.25    Baylor            7.44    
Baylor          +1.69    Kansas State      9.38    
West Virginia   +1.35    Kansas            9.43    
Texas Tech      +0.68    Oklahoma         10.08    
Oklahoma        +0.23    Texas            10.48    
Oklahoma State  +0.04    West Virginia    10.90    
TCU             -0.76    Iowa State       11.16    
Kansas State    -0.88    TCU              12.55    
Iowa State      -1.45    Texas Tech       12.90    
Texas           -2.05    Oklahoma State   15.09    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Texas Tech      +0.50 +/- 0.37    Baylor          +0.24 +/- 0.14
Oklahoma        +0.44 +/- 0.29    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.22
Baylor          +0.19 +/- 0.24    Texas Tech      +0.09 +/- 0.25
Kansas State    +0.13 +/- 0.28    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.18
West Virginia    0.00 +/- 0.33    Iowa State      -0.12 +/- 0.19
Texas           -0.16 +/- 0.31    Texas           -0.12 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.18 +/- 0.30    West Virginia   -0.20 +/- 0.30
Oklahoma State  -0.23 +/- 0.45    Kansas          -0.39 +/- 0.25
Iowa State      -0.47 +/- 0.32    Oklahoma State  -0.47 +/- 0.35
TCU             -0.74 +/- 0.37    TCU             -0.77 +/- 0.24

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          73.26   Baylor          58.61   Iowa State      146.21   Kansas          +13.30   
Iowa State      73.08   Kansas          59.96   Oklahoma        138.88   Baylor          +12.70   
Texas Tech      72.88   West Virginia   61.92   Texas Tech      136.33   West Virginia    +9.46   
Oklahoma        71.42   Texas Tech      63.46   West Virginia   133.29   Texas Tech       +9.42   
West Virginia   71.38   Texas           63.88   Kansas          133.22   Oklahoma         +3.96   
Baylor          71.30   Kansas State    64.83   Oklahoma State  132.67   Oklahoma State   +0.75   
Oklahoma State  66.71   TCU             65.26   Baylor          129.91   Texas            +0.17   
Kansas State    64.38   Oklahoma State  65.96   TCU             129.61   Iowa State       -0.04   
TCU             64.35   Oklahoma        67.46   Kansas State    129.21   Kansas State     -0.46   
Texas           64.04   Iowa State      73.13   Texas           127.92   TCU              -0.91   

Playing at West Virginia gave Kansas a 0.37 boost in strength of schedule, but it wasn't
quite enough to overtake Minnesota, who rose by 0.20 after playing a ranked Iowa squad.
They get #51 Indiana at home, while Kansas gets #33 Oklahoma at home, which ought to be
enough to reclaim the top spot.

Schedule Strength 
-------------------------- 
Kansas          82.25 ( 2)
Iowa State      81.49 ( 4) 
Oklahoma State  80.60 (10) 
Oklahoma        79.86 (21) 
West Virginia   79.72 (25) 
Kansas State    79.29 (29) 
Texas           79.24 (30) 
TCU             78.57 (40) 
Baylor          78.35 (44) 
Texas Tech      77.98 (51)
The following user(s) said Thank You: Socalhawk, porthawk, KMT, newtonhawk

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