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predictions for West Virginia game

  • asteroid
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1 week 6 days ago #24816 by asteroid
Big game.  This game and the one in Waco in a couple of weeks have
swapped places multiple times as the two most difficult remaining
games for Kansas (at least in the regular season).  Following West
Virginia's loss to Oklahoma in Norman, today's game has slipped
back into second-most difficult status, but they're so close it
doesn't matter a whole lot.  They're both toss-up games, with a
half projected win in the balance as a result.  Win, and Kansas will
retain first place in the projected standings; lose, and Baylor will
climb into the top spot, with a bit of a cushion either way.

According to Pomeroy, we have the #1 defense (Kansas) going up
against the #2 defense (West Virginia).  That alone would suggest
a low-scoring game.  Curiously, both Kansas and West Virginia have
averaged 134.4 point games for the season, yet a score of 67 to 67
somehow seems high.  Those scoring totals have been elevated by
playing opponents with much weaker defenses.  What distinguishes
these two teams is that Kansas has the #12 offense, while West
Virginia has the #50 offense, again according to Pomeroy.  But
defense is far more consistent than offense.  Sometimes the ball
just doesn't want to go in the hoop, even for the best shooters.
So the scores might get into the upper 60s, but the lower 60s
seems far more likely, and the 50s is a distinct possibility.
Recall that Kansas won in Allen Field House 60 to 53 in the very
first conference game of the season.  The average of the various
prognostications has the final score as Kansas 66, West Virginia 65.

The optimist is Sagarin Recent Games, who has Kansas by 6.8 points.
That must be due to West Virginia's loss to Oklahoma in Norman.
Next most optimistic are Dunkel and Seven Overtimes, who both have
Kansas by 4 points.  The pessimist is Don Davis' DPPI, who has West
Virginia by 5.1 points, followed closely by RealTimeRPI (who uses a
larger home court advantage) at 5.0 points for West Virginia.  The
most direct comparison comes from the conference common opponents,
for which the scatter is huge, but the average favors West Virginia
by 2 points.  The average of all 18 prognostications does favor
Kansas, however, by a mere 0.79 points, with a scatter of 3.19 points.

West Virginia is the more inconsistent of the two teams.  They played
28 points above expectation in their home dismantling of the Longhorns,
immediately after playing 22 points points below expectation during
their loss in the Octogon, which itself immediately followed a
performance 19 points above expectation while throttling TCU in
Morgantown.  Most recently, they played 12 points below expectation
against Oklahoma.  By way of comparison, Kansas has played their
last eight games within 8 points of expectation.  The two games before
that streak involved 18 points above expectation in Ames, followed by
19 points below expectation in that home loss to Baylor.

Neither team's trend is statistically significant, and although both
teams have negative mental toughness ratings, Kansas' is three times
larger and does have some statistical significance to it.  That hurts
Kansas by 4.4 points, while West Virginia's ratings help them by 1.8
points.

You can look at all the numbers for a long time, trying to find
something to hang your hat on, but it truly does look like a
toss-up game.

Lastly, I wanted to note that Whitlock has been on board for this
season after all.  Turns out his sawhitlock.home.mindspring.com web
site is still up and running and displaying the rankings from last
season, with nary ANY indication that he moved this season's rankings
to a brand new whitlockrankings.com web site.  I didn't discover that
change until this week.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     WVU     KU       Defensive Stats     WVU     KU
Points/Game         72.8    74.2     Opp Points/Game     61.7    60.2
Avg Score Margin   +11.1   +14.0     Opp Effective FG %  42.2    43.3
Assists/Game        12.7    14.3     Off Rebounds/Gm     13.7     9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   41.4    39.2     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.9    27.1
Effective FG %      47.7    53.7     Blocks/Game          3.7     5.2
Off Rebound %       39.5    30.2     Steals/Game          8.0     7.8
FTA/FGA            0.417   0.360     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.1    14.6
Turnover %          17.1    16.3

Kansas leads in nine of the fifteen categories.  West Virginia excels
in rebounding.

Common Opponents
================
There are seven common opponents, all in the conference  (West Virginia
has yet to play Baylor), one of which Kansas has played twice (Texas) and
two of which West Virginia has played twice (Texas Tech, Kansas State),
plus the head-to-head in Lawrence, giving us eleven scores to compare:

KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
WVU +14 OSU on road (+18 neutral)
KU   -3 WVU on road ( +1 neutral)

KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)
WVU +12 TTU at home ( +8 neutral)     WVU  -8 TTU on road ( -4 neutral)
KU  -13 WVU on road ( -9 neutral)     KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral)

KU  +14 TCU on road (+18 neutral)
WVU +32 TCU at home (+28 neutral)
KU  -14 WVU on road (-10 neutral)

KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)     KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
WVU -16 KSU on road (-12 neutral)     WVU  +9 KSU at home ( +5 neutral)
KU  +25 WVU on road (+29 neutral)     KU   +8 WVU on road (+12 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)     KU  +11 UT  at home ( +7 neutral)
WVU +38 UT  at home (+34 neutral)     WVU +38 UT  at home (+34 neutral)
KU  -25 WVU on road (-21 neutral)     KU  -31 WVU on road (-27 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
WVU +15 ISU at home (+11 neutral)
KU  +15 WVU on road (+19 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)
WVU -10 OU  on road ( -6 neutral)
KU  +20 WVU on road (+24 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
KU   -1 WVU on road ( +3 neutral)

Only four of the comparisons favor Kansas, while seven favor West Virginia
(that damn Baylor home game, worst performance of the season for Kansas,
doesn't come into play in this comparison, because West Virginia hasn't
played Baylor yet; the Mountaineers travel to Waco for Saturday's game).  The
average favors West Virginia by 1.82 points, with a scatter of 18.00 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Derek Culver (forward)
most points        Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most rebounds      Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most assists       Gabe Osabuohein (forward)
most steals        Gabe Osabuohein (forward)
most blocks        Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most turnovers     Derek Culver (forward)
most fouls         Gabe Osabuohein (forward)

Guard Sean McNeil was sick for the previous game.  He may recover by enough to
play today, but he's ninth in minutes played, and West Virginia's bigs tend to
dominate the stats anyway, so probably not a major consideration.

In addition to no Wilson, no Lightfoot, and no De Sousa, Jankovich has a bum
ankle for Kansas, but since he tends to play only mop-up minutes, it's unlikely
that he will see action anyway.

                                                          20-3           18-5
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.97   65   61       65       #  2   #  2    # 21   # 29 
Sagarin Predictor       +0.96   63   62       53.6     #  2   #  2    #  7   # 29 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.81   64   62                #  2   #  2    # 12   # 29 
Sagarin Recent Games    +6.84   66   59                #  4   #  2    # 45   # 29 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -0.33   63   63       49  
Massey                  +3.00   68   65       58       #  3   #  1    # 13   # 11
Pomeroy                 +1.06   65   64                #  1   #  2    #  7   # 21
Greenfield              -2.00   66   68                #  1   #  1    #  9   # 16
Dunkel                  +4.00   68.5 64.5              #  3           # 18                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.00   66.5 68.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +0.56   67   66       52.0     #  1   #  1    #  6   # 12
Real Time               -5.00   64   69       40.2     #  1   #  1    # 11   #  7 
Seven Overtimes         +4.00   69   65       58       #  1   #  4    #  5   # 17
DPPI                    -5.10   64   69       29       #  1   #  1    #  9   # 14
ESPN BPI                -0.20                 49.2     #  3   #  6    #  9   # 30
Whitlock                +1.19                          #  1   #  5    #  7   #  8
Colley Matrix           +3.32                          #  1   #  1    # 11   # 10
NCAA NET                                               #  4           #  9
LRMC                                                   #  4   #  1    #  8   #  4
common opponents        -1.82                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +0.79   65.6 64.7
scatter                  3.19    2.0  3.1  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 26-5.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be
the road game with Baylor, followed closely by today's game.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -1.34    -0.66
HOME   # 77 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.56    -4.56
HOME   #213 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.52   +27.48
HOME   # 62 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +14.92    -2.92
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 27 BYU                         71  56    +7.60    +7.40
NEUT   # 21 Dayton                      90  84    +6.50    -0.50
HOME   # 29 Colorado                    72  58   +11.00    +3.00
HOME   #244 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.18    -2.18
NEUT   #231 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.17   +15.83
AWAY   # 24 Villanova                   55  56    +3.65    -4.65
AWAY   # 64 Stanford                    72  56    +8.63    +7.37
HOME   #  7 West Virginia               60  53    +7.35    -0.35
AWAY   # 56 Iowa State                  79  53    +7.55   +18.45
HOME   #  5 Baylor                      55  67    +6.72   -18.72
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma                    66  52    +6.61    +7.39
AWAY   # 55 Texas                       66  57    +7.52    +1.48
HOME   # 74 Kansas State                81  60   +16.48    +4.52
HOME   # 36 Tennessee                   74  68   +12.02    -6.02
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma State              65  50    +8.43    +6.57
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                  78  75    +8.87    -5.87
HOME   # 55 Texas                       69  58   +13.92    -2.92
AWAY   # 81 TCU                         60  46   +10.31    +3.69
AWAY   #  7 West Virginia                         +0.95             0.536
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma                             +13.01             0.918
HOME   # 56 Iowa State                           +13.95             0.917
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                +0.32             0.515
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma State                       +14.83             0.876
AWAY   # 74 Kansas State                         +10.08             0.854
HOME   # 81 TCU                                  +16.71             0.953
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                            +2.47             0.595

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   # 93 Akron                       94  84   +13.91    -3.91
AWAY   # 70 Pittsburgh                  68  53    +5.57    +9.43
HOME   #132 Northern Colorado           69  61   +17.22    -9.22
HOME   #193 Boston U.                   69  44   +21.80    +3.20
NEUT   # 69 Northern Iowa               60  55    +8.74    -3.74
NEUT   # 45 Wichita State               75  63    +5.53    +6.47
HOME   # 58 Rhode Island                86  81   +10.61    -5.61
AWAY   # 76 St. John's                  68  70    +5.99    -7.99
HOME   #148 Austin Peay                 84  53   +18.27   +12.73
HOME   #216 Nicholls State              83  57   +23.50    +2.50
AWAY   #239 Youngstown State            75  64   +18.20    -7.20
NEUT   # 10 Ohio State                  67  59    +0.99    +7.01
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                      53  60    -7.35    +0.35
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma State              55  41    +4.28    +9.72
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                  66  54    +4.72    +7.28
HOME   # 81 TCU                         81  49   +12.56   +19.44
AWAY   # 74 Kansas State                68  84    +5.93   -21.93
HOME   # 55 Texas                       97  59    +9.77   +28.23
HOME   # 87 Missouri                    74  51   +13.12    +9.88
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                  81  89    -1.68    -6.32
HOME   # 74 Kansas State                66  57   +12.33    -3.33
HOME   # 56 Iowa State                  76  61    +9.80    +5.20
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma                    59  69    +2.46   -12.46
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -0.95             0.463
AWAY   #  5 Baylor                                -3.83             0.343
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma State                       +10.68             0.788
AWAY   # 81 TCU                                   +6.16             0.718
AWAY   # 55 Texas                                 +3.37             0.621
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma                              +8.86             0.810
AWAY   # 56 Iowa State                            +3.40             0.624
HOME   #  5 Baylor                                +2.57             0.607
The following user(s) said Thank You: JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, KMT, jaythawk1

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