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projected Big 12 standings, Round 10

  • asteroid
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2 weeks 2 days ago #24797 by asteroid
Oklahoma's upset win over West Virginia, coupled with Texas' home loss to Texas Tech was enough for
the Sooners to reclaim fifth place over the Longhorns.  Meanwhile, Kansas played over 4 points
above expectation against TCU, while Baylor played over 3 points below expectation against
Oklahoma State (and it should have been more, what with the technicals and all the free throws at
the end of the game that padded the margin), so the Jayhawks were able to marginally beat out the
Bears for the top spot again.  The road game in Morgantown is effectively a toss-up, so nearly a
half-win is in the balance.  The next two weeks won't be any cakewalk for Baylor, as they play in
Austin, then at home against West Virginia, then in Norman (where West Virginia just lost), then
at home against Kansas.  The biggest projected margin in any of those four games is Monday's in
Austin, where the Bears are favored by only 3.4 points.

                      Init.  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  Rd 10  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.28  14.36  14.77  14.89  14.97  15.20    9  1  @WVU (We)   KU  by  0.9  RW
#  5  Baylor          10.99  14.01  14.05  14.59  14.77  15.00  15.13   10  0  @UT  (Mo)   BU  by  3.4  RW
#  7  West Virginia   10.73  11.31  11.91  11.37  11.56  11.76  11.03    6  4   KU  (We)   
# 18  Texas Tech       9.33   9.96   9.31   9.93   9.88  10.11  10.63    6  4   TCU (Mo)   TTU by  9.2
# 47  Oklahoma         7.19   8.05   7.93   7.47   7.97   7.61   8.37    5  5   ISU (We)   OU  by  4.2
# 52  Texas            7.25   7.58   6.62   7.58   7.95   8.05   7.54    4  6   BU  (Mo)   
# 66  TCU              7.46   7.71   8.49   7.58   7.33   6.82   6.60    4  6  @TTU (Mo)   
# 56  Iowa State       8.35   6.82   7.44   6.72   6.24   6.04   6.40    3  7  @OU  (We)   
# 68  Kansas State     5.30   4.78   4.83   5.47   5.48   5.17   4.79    2  8   OSU (Tu)   KSU by  2.1
# 62  Oklahoma State   8.95   5.50   5.06   4.52   3.93   4.47   4.31    1  9  @KSU (Tu)   

Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 10, and for the third time this season.
Massey and Vegas are now tied for the season.  Seven Overtimes had the worst predictions for
the round, while Dunkel continues to bring up the rear for the season.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
BU  over OSU    11.5  18.0  14.3  13.0   8.5  12.5  11.2  22.0  14.5  12.0  19.0  13.5  12.5  17.5
KU  over TCU     9.4  12.0   9.6   7.5   4.0   9.0   8.4  13.5  10.7   9.0   7.0  11.6   8.4  11.1
ISU over KSU     5.0   5.0   3.8   4.5  -3.5   4.5   4.1   3.2   5.8   1.0   5.0   4.6   6.0   0.3
WVU over OU      3.4   4.0   5.3   2.5  -1.0   3.0   4.0   4.7   4.3  14.0  -1.0   5.8   2.4   5.3
TTU over UT      0.5   2.0   1.7   2.5  -2.0   3.0   1.6  -6.8   1.5  -1.0  -4.0   2.8  -0.5   3.2

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  -------2.5----------------------3-----------1-----1-----2----0.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
           8     3.5  10.0   6.3   5.0   0.5   4.5   3.2  14.0   6.5   4.0  11.0   5.5   4.5   9.5
          14     4.6   2.0   4.4   6.5  10.0   5.0   5.6   0.5   3.3   5.0   7.0   2.4   5.6   2.9
          10     5.0   5.0   6.2   5.5  13.5   5.5   5.9   6.8   4.2   9.0   5.0   5.4   4.0   9.7
         -10    13.4  14.0  15.3  12.5   9.0  13.0  14.0  14.7  14.3  24.0   9.0  15.8  12.4  15.3
           5     4.5   3.0   3.3   2.5   7.0   2.0   3.4  11.8   3.5   6.0   9.0   2.2   5.5   1.8

total           31.0  34.0  35.5  32.0  40.0  30.0  32.1  47.8  31.8  48.0  41.0  31.3  32.0  39.2
previous       411.2 390.0 398.3 408.0 490.5 394.0 412.1 465.9 394.7 448.0 465.0 408.5 410.0 410.9
cumulative     442.2 424.0 433.8 440.0 530.5 424.0 444.2 513.7 426.5 496.0 506.0 439.8 442.0 450.1
per game         8.8   8.5   8.7   8.8  10.6   8.5   8.9  10.3   8.5   9.9  10.1   8.8   8.8   9.0

Three road wins were projected for Round 10, though only two of them happened, as West Virginia fell
in Norman.  Two road wins are projected for Round 11, though Kansas in Morgantown is effectively a
toss-up game.  We're right at the long-term average of one road win in three games.

Road wins (17 out of 50)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
5 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU       0 Baylor                               +5 Baylor        
5 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU TCU       0 West Virginia                        +4 Kansas        
2 Texas          OSU TCU                   1 Kansas         BU                    +1 Texas Tech    
2 Texas Tech     KSU UT                    1 Oklahoma       KU                    +1 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                        1 Texas Tech     BU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            KSU                       2 Iowa State     KU  BU                -1 TCU           
1 West Virginia  OSU                       2 TCU            UT  KU                -1 Texas         
0 Iowa State                               3 Texas          OU  KU  TTU           -2 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                             3 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU            -3 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU        -4 Oklahoma State

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.34    Baylor            7.60    
West Virginia   +1.56    Oklahoma          9.03    
Baylor          +1.81    Kansas State      9.51    
Texas Tech      +0.18    Kansas            9.79    
TCU             -0.09    TCU              10.28    
Oklahoma        -0.20    Iowa State       10.47    
Oklahoma State  -0.21    Texas            10.84    
Kansas State    -1.08    Texas Tech       10.92    
Iowa State      -1.10    West Virginia    11.10    
Texas           -2.17    Oklahoma State   15.32    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Oklahoma        +0.23 +/- 0.29    Baylor          +0.24 +/- 0.14
Baylor          +0.22 +/- 0.26    Oklahoma        +0.16 +/- 0.20
Kansas State    +0.21 +/- 0.30    Texas Tech      +0.11 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech      +0.18 +/- 0.35    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   +0.09 +/- 0.36    Iowa State      -0.06 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.35    Texas           -0.12 +/- 0.22
Iowa State      -0.27 +/- 0.33    West Virginia   -0.16 +/- 0.32
Kansas          -0.27 +/- 0.33    Kansas          -0.44 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State  -0.33 +/- 0.49    Oklahoma State  -0.52 +/- 0.36
TCU             -0.41 +/- 0.34    TCU             -0.61 +/- 0.21

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          73.86   Baylor          59.32   Iowa State      146.00   Kansas          +13.32   
Iowa State      73.52   Kansas          60.55   Oklahoma        138.35   Baylor          +12.77   
West Virginia   72.43   West Virginia   62.00   Texas Tech      136.61   West Virginia   +10.43   
Texas Tech      72.30   Texas           64.30   West Virginia   134.43   Texas Tech       +8.00   
Baylor          72.09   Texas Tech      64.30   Kansas          134.41   Oklahoma         +3.04   
Oklahoma        70.70   TCU             64.32   Oklahoma State  133.09   Iowa State       +1.04   
Oklahoma State  66.74   Kansas State    64.78   Baylor          131.41   TCU              +0.95   
TCU             65.27   Oklahoma State  66.35   TCU             129.59   Texas            +0.65   
Texas           64.96   Oklahoma        67.65   Kansas State    129.48   Oklahoma State   +0.39   
Kansas State    64.70   Iowa State      72.48   Texas           129.26   Kansas State     -0.09   

The game in Morgantown is coming at just the right time for Kansas to reclaim the #1 spot
in strength of schedule.  Right now, the Big Ten has 12 teams in the Top 52, and so
conference play is causing all of them to rise rapidly in the strength of schedule rating.
Minnesota is currently #1 with a rating of 82.08; they have a home game against a ranked
Iowa squad next, which may keep them in top spot,  followed by a home game against
Indiana, and then a road game against Northwestern, which should be enough to dethrone
them, especially after Kansas plays in Waco (or Wacko, to use Bill Walton's pronunciation).

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          81.88 ( 2)
Iowa State      81.33 ( 5)
Oklahoma State  80.72 ( 8)
Oklahoma        80.26 (15)
Kansas State    79.66 (22)
West Virginia   79.58 (26)
Texas           79.04 (31)
Texas Tech      78.30 (41)
Baylor          78.02 (45)
TCU             77.99 (48)
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  • HawkErrant
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2 weeks 2 days ago - 2 weeks 2 days ago #24803 by HawkErrant
CONFERENCE RECORDS as of 2020-02-09
TEAM  HOME AWAY TOTAL
BU    5-0  5-0  10-0
KU    4-1  5-0   9-1
WVU   5-0  1-4   6-4
TT    4-1  2-3   6-4
OU    4-1  1-4   5-5
tu    2-3  2-3   4-6
TCU   3-2  1-4   4-6
ISU   3-2  0-5   3-7
KSU   2-3  0-5   2-8
OKS   1-4  0-5   1-9

Here are the remaining Big 12 schedules for the top 2 teams in conference as of Sunday, Feb 9...
BAYLOR		KANSAS      COMMENTS & EDGE FOR THE "ROUND"
@ tu  2/10	@ WVU 2/12  Both teams away, but tu is not the challenge WVU is. KU win is huge. Edge: BU
v WVU 2/15	v OU  2/15  WVU & OU on the road are not the same teams, but they won't roll over. Edge: KU
@ OU  2/18	v ISU 2/17  BU @OU, hopefully after an OU loss in AFH. Edge KU
v KU  2/22 	@ BU  2/22  The rematch. Edge: BU
v KSU 2/25	v OKS 2/24  Neither visitor should be a test, but since KU has OKS, Slim Edge: BU
@ TCU 2/29	@ KSU 2/29  Edge: KU, even though we play in Manhattan.
v TTU 3/2	v TCU 3/4   Edge: KU
@ WVU 3/7	@ TTU 3/7   TTU there is not WVU there. Edge: KU

While none of these games can be taken for granted by either team, it seems to me that KU has the more favorable remaining schedule. KU has the "Round" edge for 5 of the last 8 contests to be played. Needless to say -- but 
yeah, I'm going to say it anyway -- KU wins out and at least a tie for the title is guaranteed.

Looking at it a little differently...
GAMES LEFT TO PLAY EVERY OTHER OPPONENT (A=Away for BU & KU, H=home)

OPP BU KU
WVU 2  1A  KU needs the W away*; BU has to play #13 WVU 2x (see OKS below). Edge: Even
TT  1H 1A  The venues favor BU. Edge: BU
OU  1A 1H  Edge: KU
tu  1A -   Though often hapless, tu is always a threat at home. More dangerous than ISU away. Edge: KU
TCU 1A 1H  Edge: KU
ISU -  1H  See tu above. Not a gimme, but should be a win. Edge: KU
KSU 1H 1A  Venues give the edge to BU.
OKS -  1H  BU is done with OKS, but since they have to face WVU away in their last game... Edge: KU

*Shoot, KU needs EVERY W. It's like "nuke from orbit" - only way to be sure.

Although all games are big when really needing to be perfect the rest of the way, the two biggest remaining games for KU at this stage will be @WVU this Wednesday and at Baylor on Feb 22. Beating WVU in WV will give KU a big step up over BU, though not as big as BU's current 1 game lead. But then hold court in The Phog against OU and ISU and KU would be poised to at least move into a tie with the Bears when they meet for game 2 in Waco. And if KU and BU are tied going into their respective final games of the season, I like the odds for KU winning at least a share of it's 19th Big 12 title in 24 Big 12 seasons.

“The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it” ~Albert Einstein
Last Edit: 2 weeks 2 days ago by HawkErrant.
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