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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
projected Big 12 standings, Round 10
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4 years 2 months ago #24797
by asteroid
Oklahoma's upset win over West Virginia, coupled with Texas' home loss to Texas Tech was enough for
the Sooners to reclaim fifth place over the Longhorns. Meanwhile, Kansas played over 4 points
above expectation against TCU, while Baylor played over 3 points below expectation against
Oklahoma State (and it should have been more, what with the technicals and all the free throws at
the end of the game that padded the margin), so the Jayhawks were able to marginally beat out the
Bears for the top spot again. The road game in Morgantown is effectively a toss-up, so nearly a
half-win is in the balance. The next two weeks won't be any cakewalk for Baylor, as they play in
Austin, then at home against West Virginia, then in Norman (where West Virginia just lost), then
at home against Kansas. The biggest projected margin in any of those four games is Monday's in
Austin, where the Bears are favored by only 3.4 points.
Init. Rnd 5 Rnd 6 Rnd 7 Rnd 8 Rnd 9 Rd 10
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 2 Kansas 14.45 14.28 14.36 14.77 14.89 14.97 15.20 9 1 @WVU (We) KU by 0.9 RW
# 5 Baylor 10.99 14.01 14.05 14.59 14.77 15.00 15.13 10 0 @UT (Mo) BU by 3.4 RW
# 7 West Virginia 10.73 11.31 11.91 11.37 11.56 11.76 11.03 6 4 KU (We)
# 18 Texas Tech 9.33 9.96 9.31 9.93 9.88 10.11 10.63 6 4 TCU (Mo) TTU by 9.2
# 47 Oklahoma 7.19 8.05 7.93 7.47 7.97 7.61 8.37 5 5 ISU (We) OU by 4.2
# 52 Texas 7.25 7.58 6.62 7.58 7.95 8.05 7.54 4 6 BU (Mo)
# 66 TCU 7.46 7.71 8.49 7.58 7.33 6.82 6.60 4 6 @TTU (Mo)
# 56 Iowa State 8.35 6.82 7.44 6.72 6.24 6.04 6.40 3 7 @OU (We)
# 68 Kansas State 5.30 4.78 4.83 5.47 5.48 5.17 4.79 2 8 OSU (Tu) KSU by 2.1
# 62 Oklahoma State 8.95 5.50 5.06 4.52 3.93 4.47 4.31 1 9 @KSU (Tu)
Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 10, and for the third time this season.
Massey and Vegas are now tied for the season. Seven Overtimes had the worst predictions for
the round, while Dunkel continues to bring up the rear for the season.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
BU over OSU 11.5 18.0 14.3 13.0 8.5 12.5 11.2 22.0 14.5 12.0 19.0 13.5 12.5 17.5
KU over TCU 9.4 12.0 9.6 7.5 4.0 9.0 8.4 13.5 10.7 9.0 7.0 11.6 8.4 11.1
ISU over KSU 5.0 5.0 3.8 4.5 -3.5 4.5 4.1 3.2 5.8 1.0 5.0 4.6 6.0 0.3
WVU over OU 3.4 4.0 5.3 2.5 -1.0 3.0 4.0 4.7 4.3 14.0 -1.0 5.8 2.4 5.3
TTU over UT 0.5 2.0 1.7 2.5 -2.0 3.0 1.6 -6.8 1.5 -1.0 -4.0 2.8 -0.5 3.2
Reality Error
------- -------2.5----------------------3-----------1-----1-----2----0.5------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
8 3.5 10.0 6.3 5.0 0.5 4.5 3.2 14.0 6.5 4.0 11.0 5.5 4.5 9.5
14 4.6 2.0 4.4 6.5 10.0 5.0 5.6 0.5 3.3 5.0 7.0 2.4 5.6 2.9
10 5.0 5.0 6.2 5.5 13.5 5.5 5.9 6.8 4.2 9.0 5.0 5.4 4.0 9.7
-10 13.4 14.0 15.3 12.5 9.0 13.0 14.0 14.7 14.3 24.0 9.0 15.8 12.4 15.3
5 4.5 3.0 3.3 2.5 7.0 2.0 3.4 11.8 3.5 6.0 9.0 2.2 5.5 1.8
total 31.0 34.0 35.5 32.0 40.0 30.0 32.1 47.8 31.8 48.0 41.0 31.3 32.0 39.2
previous 411.2 390.0 398.3 408.0 490.5 394.0 412.1 465.9 394.7 448.0 465.0 408.5 410.0 410.9
cumulative 442.2 424.0 433.8 440.0 530.5 424.0 444.2 513.7 426.5 496.0 506.0 439.8 442.0 450.1
per game 8.8 8.5 8.7 8.8 10.6 8.5 8.9 10.3 8.5 9.9 10.1 8.8 8.8 9.0
Three road wins were projected for Round 10, though only two of them happened, as West Virginia fell
in Norman. Two road wins are projected for Round 11, though Kansas in Morgantown is effectively a
toss-up game. We're right at the long-term average of one road win in three games.
Road wins (17 out of 50) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
5 Baylor TTU KU OSU ISU KSU 0 Baylor +5 Baylor
5 Kansas ISU OU UT OSU TCU 0 West Virginia +4 Kansas
2 Texas OSU TCU 1 Kansas BU +1 Texas Tech
2 Texas Tech KSU UT 1 Oklahoma KU +1 West Virginia
1 Oklahoma UT 1 Texas Tech BU 0 Oklahoma
1 TCU KSU 2 Iowa State KU BU -1 TCU
1 West Virginia OSU 2 TCU UT KU -1 Texas
0 Iowa State 3 Texas OU KU TTU -2 Iowa State
0 Kansas State 3 Kansas State TCU TTU BU -3 Kansas State
0 Oklahoma State 4 Oklahoma State WVU UT BU KU -4 Oklahoma State
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Kansas +2.34 Baylor 7.60
West Virginia +1.56 Oklahoma 9.03
Baylor +1.81 Kansas State 9.51
Texas Tech +0.18 Kansas 9.79
TCU -0.09 TCU 10.28
Oklahoma -0.20 Iowa State 10.47
Oklahoma State -0.21 Texas 10.84
Kansas State -1.08 Texas Tech 10.92
Iowa State -1.10 West Virginia 11.10
Texas -2.17 Oklahoma State 15.32
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Oklahoma +0.23 +/- 0.29 Baylor +0.24 +/- 0.14
Baylor +0.22 +/- 0.26 Oklahoma +0.16 +/- 0.20
Kansas State +0.21 +/- 0.30 Texas Tech +0.11 +/- 0.21
Texas Tech +0.18 +/- 0.35 Kansas State +0.01 +/- 0.19
West Virginia +0.09 +/- 0.36 Iowa State -0.06 +/- 0.18
Texas -0.19 +/- 0.35 Texas -0.12 +/- 0.22
Iowa State -0.27 +/- 0.33 West Virginia -0.16 +/- 0.32
Kansas -0.27 +/- 0.33 Kansas -0.44 +/- 0.27
Oklahoma State -0.33 +/- 0.49 Oklahoma State -0.52 +/- 0.36
TCU -0.41 +/- 0.34 TCU -0.61 +/- 0.21
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Kansas 73.86 Baylor 59.32 Iowa State 146.00 Kansas +13.32
Iowa State 73.52 Kansas 60.55 Oklahoma 138.35 Baylor +12.77
West Virginia 72.43 West Virginia 62.00 Texas Tech 136.61 West Virginia +10.43
Texas Tech 72.30 Texas 64.30 West Virginia 134.43 Texas Tech +8.00
Baylor 72.09 Texas Tech 64.30 Kansas 134.41 Oklahoma +3.04
Oklahoma 70.70 TCU 64.32 Oklahoma State 133.09 Iowa State +1.04
Oklahoma State 66.74 Kansas State 64.78 Baylor 131.41 TCU +0.95
TCU 65.27 Oklahoma State 66.35 TCU 129.59 Texas +0.65
Texas 64.96 Oklahoma 67.65 Kansas State 129.48 Oklahoma State +0.39
Kansas State 64.70 Iowa State 72.48 Texas 129.26 Kansas State -0.09
The game in Morgantown is coming at just the right time for Kansas to reclaim the #1 spot
in strength of schedule. Right now, the Big Ten has 12 teams in the Top 52, and so
conference play is causing all of them to rise rapidly in the strength of schedule rating.
Minnesota is currently #1 with a rating of 82.08; they have a home game against a ranked
Iowa squad next, which may keep them in top spot, followed by a home game against
Indiana, and then a road game against Northwestern, which should be enough to dethrone
them, especially after Kansas plays in Waco (or Wacko, to use Bill Walton's pronunciation).
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 81.88 ( 2)
Iowa State 81.33 ( 5)
Oklahoma State 80.72 ( 8)
Oklahoma 80.26 (15)
Kansas State 79.66 (22)
West Virginia 79.58 (26)
Texas 79.04 (31)
Texas Tech 78.30 (41)
Baylor 78.02 (45)
TCU 77.99 (48)
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4 years 2 months ago - 4 years 2 months ago #24803
by HawkErrant
Here are the remaining Big 12 schedules for the top 2 teams in conference as of Sunday, Feb 9...
Looking at it a little differently...
Although all games are big when really needing to be perfect the rest of the way, the two biggest remaining games for KU at this stage will be @WVU this Wednesday and at Baylor on Feb 22. Beating WVU in WV will give KU a big step up over BU, though not as big as BU's current 1 game lead. But then hold court in The Phog against OU and ISU and KU would be poised to at least move into a tie with the Bears when they meet for game 2 in Waco. And if KU and BU are tied going into their respective final games of the season, I like the odds for KU winning at least a share of it's 19th Big 12 title in 24 Big 12 seasons.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
CONFERENCE RECORDS as of 2020-02-09
TEAM HOME AWAY TOTAL
BU 5-0 5-0 10-0
KU 4-1 5-0 9-1
WVU 5-0 1-4 6-4
TT 4-1 2-3 6-4
OU 4-1 1-4 5-5
tu 2-3 2-3 4-6
TCU 3-2 1-4 4-6
ISU 3-2 0-5 3-7
KSU 2-3 0-5 2-8
OKS 1-4 0-5 1-9Here are the remaining Big 12 schedules for the top 2 teams in conference as of Sunday, Feb 9...
BAYLOR KANSAS COMMENTS & EDGE FOR THE "ROUND"
@ tu 2/10 @ WVU 2/12 Both teams away, but tu is not the challenge WVU is. KU win is huge. Edge: BU
v WVU 2/15 v OU 2/15 WVU & OU on the road are not the same teams, but they won't roll over. Edge: KU
@ OU 2/18 v ISU 2/17 BU @OU, hopefully after an OU loss in AFH. Edge KU
v KU 2/22 @ BU 2/22 The rematch. Edge: BU
v KSU 2/25 v OKS 2/24 Neither visitor should be a test, but since KU has OKS, Slim Edge: BU
@ TCU 2/29 @ KSU 2/29 Edge: KU, even though we play in Manhattan.
v TTU 3/2 v TCU 3/4 Edge: KU
@ WVU 3/7 @ TTU 3/7 TTU there is not WVU there. Edge: KU
While none of these games can be taken for granted by either team, it seems to me that KU has the more favorable remaining schedule. KU has the "Round" edge for 5 of the last 8 contests to be played. Needless to say -- but
yeah, I'm going to say it anyway -- KU wins out and at least a tie for the title is guaranteed.Looking at it a little differently...
GAMES LEFT TO PLAY EVERY OTHER OPPONENT (A=Away for BU & KU, H=home)
OPP BU KU
WVU 2 1A KU needs the W away*; BU has to play #13 WVU 2x (see OKS below). Edge: Even
TT 1H 1A The venues favor BU. Edge: BU
OU 1A 1H Edge: KU
tu 1A - Though often hapless, tu is always a threat at home. More dangerous than ISU away. Edge: KU
TCU 1A 1H Edge: KU
ISU - 1H See tu above. Not a gimme, but should be a win. Edge: KU
KSU 1H 1A Venues give the edge to BU.
OKS - 1H BU is done with OKS, but since they have to face WVU away in their last game... Edge: KU
*Shoot, KU needs EVERY W. It's like "nuke from orbit" - only way to be sure.Although all games are big when really needing to be perfect the rest of the way, the two biggest remaining games for KU at this stage will be @WVU this Wednesday and at Baylor on Feb 22. Beating WVU in WV will give KU a big step up over BU, though not as big as BU's current 1 game lead. But then hold court in The Phog against OU and ISU and KU would be poised to at least move into a tie with the Bears when they meet for game 2 in Waco. And if KU and BU are tied going into their respective final games of the season, I like the odds for KU winning at least a share of it's 19th Big 12 title in 24 Big 12 seasons.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Last Edit: 4 years 2 months ago by HawkErrant.
The following user(s) said Thank You: Socalhawk, porthawk
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