projected Big 12 standings, Round 9

Though both Oklahoma and Texas lost, Texas played a hair above expectation, while Oklahoma
played a hair below expectation, and that was enough for the two to swap places in the
projected standings.  Of greater interest to Jayhawk fans, although both Kansas and Baylor
won, Baylor did so on the road and with a smaller probability of victory, so the fractional
win they picked up in winning that game was larger than the fractional win that Kansas
picked up, and it was enough for Baylor to displace Kansas from the top spot, and for the
first time this season.  Both teams have an 82 percent probability of winning on Saturday,
so whether Kansas can reclaim the top spot after Saturday's action will depend on how each
team performs against expectation.  Of course, next Wednesday's game in Morgantown is
effectively a toss-up game for Kansas, so a half-win is in the balance.  A win in Morgantown
would enable Kansas to comfortably retake the top spot, whereas a loss would give Baylor a
comfortable cushion, assuming of course that Baylor wins on Saturday and Monday in Austin.

                      Init.  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7  Rnd 8  Rnd 9  
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  6  Baylor          10.99  13.60  14.01  14.05  14.59  14.77  15.00    9  0   OSU (Sa)   BU  by 11.5
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.14  14.28  14.36  14.77  14.89  14.97    8  1  @TCU (Sa)   KU  by  9.3  RW
#  5  West Virginia   10.73  12.64  11.31  11.91  11.37  11.56  11.76    6  3  @OU  (Sa)   WVU by  3.5  RW
# 21  Texas Tech       9.33   9.55   9.96   9.31   9.93   9.88  10.11    5  4  @UT  (Sa)   TTU by  0.5  RW
# 53  Texas            7.25   7.45   7.58   6.62   7.58   7.95   8.05    4  5   TTU (Sa)   
# 52  Oklahoma         7.19   7.50   8.05   7.93   7.47   7.97   7.61    4  5   WVU (Sa)   
# 67  TCU              7.46   8.37   7.71   8.49   7.58   7.33   6.82    4  5   KU  (Sa)   
# 57  Iowa State       8.35   7.61   6.82   7.44   6.72   6.24   6.04    2  7   KSU (Sa)   ISU by  4.8
# 68  Kansas State     5.30   3.46   4.78   4.83   5.47   5.48   5.17    2  7  @ISU (Sa)   
# 61  Oklahoma State   8.95   5.68   5.50   5.06   4.52   3.93   4.47    1  8  @BU  (Sa)   

ESPN's BPI took honors for best prognostications in Round 9; it's the BPI's first win
of the season.  Massey retains the season lead.  Worst predictions came from Colley.
Dunkel is still bringing up rear for the season.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over UT     14.3  16.0  15.8  14.5  17.5  14.5  14.7  17.7  17.5  11.0  17.0  18.6  15.3  18.1
WVU over ISU    10.4  12.0  13.9  10.5   8.0  12.0  11.7  20.9  15.5  11.0  22.0  13.5  11.4  15.8
TTU over OU      6.6   7.0   6.8   9.0   4.0   9.0   7.2  -0.5   9.1   6.0   9.0   7.3   7.6   6.3
BU  over KSU     5.9  11.0   8.3   7.0  10.5   7.0   5.3  18.8   6.3  13.0   5.0   8.7   4.9   7.0
OSU over TCU     2.8   2.0   2.0   3.0  -3.0   3.0   2.5  -0.6   4.2  -4.0   6.0   2.4   3.8   0.3

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  -------2.5----------------------2-----------1-----1-----2----0.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          11     3.3   5.0   4.8   3.5   6.5   3.5   3.7   6.7   6.5   0.0   6.0   7.6   4.3   7.1
          15     4.6   3.0   1.1   4.5   7.0   3.0   3.3   5.9   0.5   4.0   7.0   1.5   3.6   0.8
           8     1.4   1.0   1.2   1.0   4.0   1.0   0.8   8.5   1.1   2.0   1.0   0.7   0.4   1.7
           6     0.1   5.0   2.3   1.0   4.5   1.0   0.7  12.8   0.3   7.0   1.0   2.7   1.1   1.0
          15    12.2  13.0  13.0  12.0  18.0  12.0  12.5  15.6  10.8  19.0   9.0  12.6  11.2  14.7

total           21.6  27.0  22.4  22.0  40.0  20.5  21.0  49.5  19.2  32.0  24.0  25.1  20.6  25.3
previous       389.6 363.0 375.9 386.0 450.5 373.5 391.1 416.4 375.5 416.0 441.0 383.4 389.4 385.6
cumulative     411.2 390.0 398.3 408.0 490.5 394.0 412.1 465.9 394.7 448.0 465.0 408.5 410.0 410.9
per game         9.1   8.7   8.9   9.1  10.9   8.8   9.2  10.4   8.8  10.0  10.3   9.1   9.1   9.1

Only one road win was projected for Round 9, and only that one happened.  Three
road wins are projected for Round 10, though Texas Tech at Texas is effectively
a toss-up game.

Road wins (15 out of 42)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
5 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU KSU       0 Baylor                               +5 Baylor        
4 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU           0 West Virginia                        +3 Kansas        
2 Texas          OSU TCU                   1 Kansas         BU                    +1 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                        1 Oklahoma       KU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            KSU                       1 TCU            UT                     0 TCU           
1 Texas Tech     KSU                       1 Texas Tech     BU                     0 Texas         
1 West Virginia  OSU                       2 Iowa State     KU  BU                 0 Texas Tech    
0 Iowa State                               2 Texas          OU  KU                -2 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                             3 Kansas State   TCU TTU BU            -3 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU        -4 Oklahoma State

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.41    Baylor            7.75    
West Virginia   +1.83    Oklahoma          8.66    
Baylor          +1.73    Kansas State      9.68    
TCU             +0.10    Kansas            9.99    
Texas Tech      +0.10    TCU              10.44    
Oklahoma State  -0.22    Iowa State       10.54    
Oklahoma        -0.41    Texas            10.91    
Kansas State    -1.05    West Virginia    10.92    
Iowa State      -1.30    Texas Tech       11.21    
Texas           -2.18    Oklahoma State   15.63    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +0.33 +/- 0.28    Baylor          +0.25 +/- 0.11
Kansas State    +0.29 +/- 0.33    Oklahoma        +0.12 +/- 0.19
West Virginia   +0.29 +/- 0.37    Texas Tech      +0.11 +/- 0.22
Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.38    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.19
Oklahoma        +0.11 +/- 0.30    Iowa State      -0.06 +/- 0.18
Texas           -0.19 +/- 0.37    West Virginia   -0.07 +/- 0.33
Kansas          -0.34 +/- 0.36    Texas           -0.13 +/- 0.23
Iowa State      -0.35 +/- 0.35    Kansas          -0.43 +/- 0.28
TCU             -0.41 +/- 0.37    Oklahoma State  -0.61 +/- 0.38
Oklahoma State  -0.43 +/- 0.53    TCU             -0.65 +/- 0.22

We managed to get to the halfway point in the conference season with all ten teams in
positive scoring margin territory.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          74.43   Baylor          58.71   Iowa State      146.45   Baylor          +13.19   
Iowa State      73.64   Kansas          61.33   Oklahoma        138.82   Kansas          +13.10   
West Virginia   72.95   West Virginia   61.77   Texas Tech      137.41   West Virginia   +11.18   
Texas Tech      72.68   Texas           64.32   Kansas          135.76   Texas Tech       +7.95   
Baylor          71.90   TCU             64.43   West Virginia   134.73   Oklahoma         +2.91   
Oklahoma        70.86   Kansas State    64.50   Oklahoma State  132.41   TCU              +1.86   
Oklahoma State  66.50   Texas Tech      64.73   TCU             130.71   Texas            +1.09   
TCU             66.29   Oklahoma State  65.91   Baylor          130.62   Iowa State       +0.82   
Texas           65.41   Oklahoma        67.95   Texas           129.73   Oklahoma State   +0.59   
Kansas State    64.68   Iowa State      72.82   Kansas State    129.18   Kansas State     +0.18   

TCU's road game gave the Horned Frogs yet another boost in the strength of schedule
ranking.  After Saturday's game with Kansas, everybody should be in the Top 50.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          81.95 ( 1)
Iowa State      81.19 ( 5)
Oklahoma State  80.22 (10)
Oklahoma        79.96 (12)
Kansas State    79.30 (23)
West Virginia   79.05 (26)
Texas           78.79 (29)
Baylor          77.98 (44)
Texas Tech      77.72 (46)
TCU             77.36 (51)