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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Texas game
- asteroid
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5 years 10 months ago #24714
by asteroid
I don't know about others, but my preference is to finish the first
cycle through the conference opponents before beginning the second
cycle. Can't really provide a solid reason for that preference, but
consider the opposite extreme, in which you play the same conference
opponent in back-to-back games, home and away, then you're done with
them for the regular season. If those games were against a contender,
and your team was missing a key player due to injury, chances are
you'd wind up playing both those games without a key player, putting
your team at a disadvantage in the race for the conference crown. I
wouldn't go so far as to demand the same order of opponents for both
cycles, but I do think we should be playing our first game against
TCU rather than playing our second game against Texas today. Oh well,
we get TCU on Saturday, so it's just a one-game difference. Not a
big deal, right?
Texas' trend and mental toughness ratings have no statistical
significance. The trend for Kansas is nearly the same as for Texas,
and also lacks statistical significance. The mental toughness rating
for Kansas retains its significance, and seems to be largely the
result of having played 19 points below expectation against Baylor
and 28 points above expectation against Monmouth. It does actually
help against a weaker Texas team, but only by about a point.
All the various prognostications favor Kansas by double digits. In
contrast to the Texas Tech game, the most optimistic comes from the
common opponents comparison, where Kansas is favored by nearly 21
points. The most pessimistic comes from Seven Overtimes, who has
Kansas by only 11 points. The average is 16 points.
Sagarin Predictor has the margin at 14.3 points. Texas hasn't played
a single game all season long more than 14.3 points above expectation,
while Kansas has played just a single game more than 14.3 points below
expecation, namely that infamous Baylor home game. That's just one
performance out of 42 for both teams that causes a loss for Kansas,
for a winning probability of 98 percent, somewhat more favorable than
the statistical predictions below.
This is Texas' most difficult remaining game, as the Longhorns have
already played at Baylor and at West Virginia. Next most difficult
game is the one in Lubbock, where the Red Raiders are favored by only
7.5 points. Kansas, of course, still needs to travel to both Waco and
Morgantown, the latter occurring next week, but the Jayhawks remain
favored in both contests by fractional points.
One thing to keep in mind: Baylor at West Virginia occurs on the LAST
day of the conference season (March 7). That game has the earliest
tip-off time of the five conference games, followed an hour later by
Kansas at Texas Tech, so expect the conference race to come down to
the wire.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UT KU Defensive Stats UT KU
Points/Game 66.2 75.2 Opp Points/Game 63.6 61.0
Avg Score Margin +2.6 +14.2 Opp Effective FG % 46.5 43.6
Assists/Game 13.5 14.6 Off Rebounds/Gm 7.8 9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm 32.6 38.8 Def Rebounds/Gm 21.8 26.9
Effective FG % 51.7 54.4 Blocks/Game 4.5 5.2
Off Rebound % 25.9 30.5 Steals/Game 5.5 7.8
FTA/FGA 0.206 0.363 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.7 14.8
Turnover % 18.0 16.1
In other words, Kansas leads in all fifteen categories.
Common Opponents
================
There are six common opponents, all in the conference (Texas has
yet to play Texas Tech, and Kansas has yet to play TCU), plus the
head-to-head in Austin, giving us seven scores to compare:
KU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral)
UT -15 BU on road (-11 neutral)
KU -1 UT at home ( -5 neutral)
KU +14 OU on road (+18 neutral)
UT -10 OU at home (-14 neutral)
KU +36 UT at home (+32 neutral)
KU +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
UT +14 KSU at home (+10 neutral)
KU +11 UT at home ( +7 neutral)
KU +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
UT +12 OSU on road (+16 neutral)
KU +7 UT at home ( +3 neutral)
KU +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
UT -38 WVU on road (-34 neutral)
KU +41 UT at home (+37 neutral)
KU +9 UT on road (+13 neutral)
KU +17 UT at home (+13 neutral)
KU +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
UT +4 ISU at home ( 0 neutral)
KU +34 UT at home (+30 neutral)
Six of the comparisons favor Kansas, while one favors Texas (that damn
Baylor home game, worst performance of the season for Kansas). The
average, however, favors Kansas by a whopping 20.7 points, with a
scatter of 16.3 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Matt Coleman (guard)
most points Matt Coleman (guard)
most rebounds Jericho Sims (forward)
most assists Matt Coleman (guard)
most steals Matt Coleman (guard)
most blocks Jericho Sims (forward)
most turnovers Matt Coleman (guard)
most fouls Gerald Liddell (forward)
Forward Kamaka Hepa is out with an ankle injury.
Forward Gerald Liddell is out with a back injury.
As it was for the first game, the key would seem to be controlling Coleman.
Expect Garrett to be defending him most of the time.
18-3 14-7
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Texas
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +14.51 70 56 88 # 1 # 1 # 53 # 39
Sagarin Predictor +14.31 70 56 91.0 # 2 # 1 # 54 # 39
Sagarin Golden Mean +13.13 69.5 56 # 2 # 1 # 46 # 39
Sagarin Recent Games +15.75 71 55 # 2 # 1 # 66 # 39
Sagarin Eigenvector +19.45 73 53 93
Massey +16.00 72 56 93 # 3 # 1 # 46 # 38
Pomeroy +15.83 70 54 # 1 # 1 # 68 # 39
Greenfield +14.50 73 58.5 # 2 # 1 # 65 # 48
Dunkel +17.50 76 58 # 3 # 71
Vegas (via Dunkel) +14.50 72 57.5
Dolphin Predictive +14.69 73 58 91.1 # 2 # 1 # 78 # 51
Real Time +17.00 77 60 79.7 # 1 # 1 # 45 # 35
Seven Overtimes +11.00 72 61 83 # 1 # 3 # 75 # 21
DPPI +19.30 76 57 96.5 # 2 # 1 # 70 # 44
ESPN BPI +17.50 94.4 # 3 # 4 # 69 # 40
Colley Matrix +17.65 # 1 # 1 # 50 # 32
NCAA NET # 4 # 62
LRMC # 4 # 1 # 83 # 55
common opponents +20.71
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +16.1 72.5 56.9
scatter 2.5 2.4 2.2
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is back to 26-5.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses. Toughest game would be the
road game with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Duke 66 68 -2.21 +0.21
HOME # 85 NC Greensboro 74 62 +17.54 -5.54
HOME #204 Monmouth-NJ 112 57 +27.02 +27.98
HOME # 65 East Tennessee State(ETS 75 63 +15.65 -3.65
Div2 Chaminade 93 63
NEUT # 29 BYU 71 56 +7.86 +7.14
NEUT # 16 Dayton 90 84 +6.38 -0.38
HOME # 28 Colorado 72 58 +10.93 +3.07
HOME #250 Milwaukee 95 68 +29.67 -2.67
NEUT #227 Kansas City(UMKC) 98 57 +25.18 +15.82
AWAY # 20 Villanova 55 56 +3.80 -4.80
AWAY # 60 Stanford 72 56 +8.49 +7.51
HOME # 7 West Virginia 60 53 +6.98 +0.02
AWAY # 56 Iowa State 79 53 +7.95 +18.05
HOME # 6 Baylor 55 67 +6.91 -18.91
AWAY # 47 Oklahoma 66 52 +7.02 +6.98
AWAY # 54 Texas 66 57 +7.93 +1.07
HOME # 68 Kansas State 81 60 +15.98 +5.02
HOME # 44 Tennessee 74 68 +12.69 -6.69
AWAY # 67 Oklahoma State 65 50 +9.47 +5.53
HOME # 18 Texas Tech 78 75 +10.00 -7.00
HOME # 54 Texas +14.31 0.910
AWAY # 62 TCU +9.14 0.813
AWAY # 7 West Virginia +0.60 0.522
HOME # 47 Oklahoma +13.40 0.920
HOME # 56 Iowa State +14.33 0.914
AWAY # 6 Baylor +0.53 0.523
HOME # 67 Oklahoma State +15.85 0.884
AWAY # 68 Kansas State +9.60 0.831
HOME # 62 TCU +15.52 0.934
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech +3.62 0.631
Here is Texas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #128 Northern Colorado 69 45 +10.20 +13.80
AWAY # 21 Purdue 70 66 -7.31 +11.31
HOME #152 California Baptist 67 54 +11.82 +1.18
HOME #210 Prairie View A&M 70 56 +16.45 -2.45
NEUT # 55 Georgetown 66 82 +0.01 -16.01
NEUT #177 California 62 45 +10.35 +6.65
HOME #264 McNeese State 73 71 +19.21 -17.21
HOME #161 UAB 67 57 +12.71 -2.71
NEUT #144 Texas A&M 60 50 +8.26 +1.74
HOME #164 Central Michigan 87 76 +12.92 -1.92
AWAY # 57 Providence 48 70 -3.10 -18.90
HOME #341 High Point 89 58 +26.02 +4.98
AWAY # 6 Baylor 44 59 -10.59 -4.41
HOME # 47 Oklahoma 62 72 +2.28 -12.28
HOME # 68 Kansas State 64 50 +4.86 +9.14
AWAY # 67 Oklahoma State 76 64 -1.65 +13.65
HOME # 2 Kansas 57 66 -7.93 -1.07
AWAY # 7 West Virginia 59 97 -10.52 -27.48
HOME # 24 LSU 67 69 -0.62 -1.38
AWAY # 62 TCU 62 61 -1.98 +2.98
HOME # 56 Iowa State 72 68 +3.21 +0.79
AWAY # 2 Kansas -14.31 0.090
HOME # 18 Texas Tech -1.12 0.460
HOME # 6 Baylor -4.21 0.331
AWAY # 56 Iowa State -3.17 0.386
HOME # 62 TCU +4.40 0.659
AWAY # 68 Kansas State -1.52 0.442
HOME # 7 West Virginia -4.14 0.354
AWAY # 18 Texas Tech -7.50 0.252
AWAY # 47 Oklahoma -4.10 0.341
HOME # 67 Oklahoma State +4.73 0.636
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk
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