predictions for Texas Tech game

Well, the Jayhawks survived the suspension of McCormack.  Can they survive
Texas Tech with him?  All the prognosticators say "yes".  RealTimeRPI, with
its enormous home court advantage, is the most optimistic, having Kansas by
21 points.  Close behind is Colley, who really doesn't like Tech very much,
having them ranked way down at #78; Colley says Kansas by 20.5 points.  Most
are right around the 10 point range, but the most pessimistic is the common
opponent comparison, which has Kansas by only 4.7 points.

Tech has played four games above expectation by enough to win, while Kansas
still has only the single performance below expectation by enough to lose
(yep, it's still that Baylor game).  That's five out of forty games played
by both teams, corresponding to a 12.5 percent chance of Kansas losing.

Neither Tech's trend nor mental toughness ratings are statistically
significant, and while the negative mental toughness rating for Kansas does
have some statistical significace to it, it actually helps by a fraction of
a point because Tech's power rating is low enough.

Well, it's a relatively early tip, so enough chit-chat.   Let me wrap this
up and get it posted.  Tip-off is less than an hour away.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     TTU     KU       Defensive Stats     TTU     KU
Points/Game         73.5    75.1     Opp Points/Game     63.5    60.3
Avg Score Margin   +10.1   +14.8     Opp Effective FG %  45.9    43.3
Assists/Game        16.1    14.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.4     9.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.1    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.8    26.8
Effective FG %      50.6    54.3     Blocks/Game          3.8     5.0
Off Rebound %       27.6    31.0     Steals/Game          7.7     7.9
FTA/FGA            0.366   0.363     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.9    14.8
Turnover %          17.5    16.3

In other words, Kansas leads in all seven defensive categories, and in
six out of eight offensive categories.  Texas Tech does get more assists
per game and marginally attempts more free throws per field goal attempt.

Common Opponents
================
There are five common opponents, all in the conference:

KU  +15 OSU on road (+19 neutral)
TTU +35 OSU at home (+31 neutral)
KU   -8 TTU at home (-12 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)
TTU  -5 BU  at home ( -9 neutral)
KU   -3 TTU at home ( -7 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)     KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
TTU -12 WVU on road ( -8 neutral)     TTU  +8 WVU at home ( +4 neutral)
KU  +15 TTU at home (+11 neutral)     KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)

KU  +21 KSU at home (+17 neutral)
TTU +14 KSU on road (+18 neutral)
KU   +3 TTU at home ( -1 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
TTU +20 ISU at home (+16 neutral)
KU  +18 TTU at home (+14 neutral)

The average favors Kansas by 4.7 points, with a scatter of 10.1 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Davide Moretti (guard)
most points        Jahmi'us Ramsey (guard)
most rebounds      Chris Clarke (guard)
most assists       Chris Clarke (guard)
most steals        Jahmi'us Ramsey (guard)
most blocks        T. J. Holyfield (forward)
most turnovers     Chris Clarke (guard)
most fouls         T. J. Holyfield (forward)

Forward Tyreek Smith is out following leg surgery.
Guard Kevin McCullar did not play the most recent game due to concussion protocol.
Forward Joel Ntambwe has not been eleigible all season.
McCullar is their seventh man in terms of minutes per game

                                                          17-3           13-7
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Texas Tech
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +10.88   71   60       82       #  1   #  1    # 26   # 58 
Sagarin Predictor      +10.52   70   60       83.2     #  2   #  1    # 22   # 58 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +10.36   70   60                #  2   #  1    # 22   # 58 
Sagarin Recent Games   +11.58   71   59                #  3   #  1    # 34   # 58 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +16.58   73   57       90  
Massey                 +13.00   72   59       88       #  2   #  1    # 36   # 37
Pomeroy                +11.68   68   57                #  1   #  1    # 23   # 58
Greenfield              +9.00   70   61                #  2   #  1    # 20   # 30
Dunkel                 +14.00   71   57                #  3           # 30                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.00   70   61                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +10.17   70   60       82.4     #  1   #  1    # 24   # 28
Real Time              +21.00   80   59       84.8     #  1   #  1    # 62   # 78 
Seven Overtimes         +8.00   72   64       81       #  1   #  3    # 36   # 70
DPPI                   +12.30   72.5 60       87.0     #  2   #  1    # 25   # 68
ESPN BPI               +12.50                 87.6     #  3   #  3    # 29   # 49
Colley Matrix          +20.45                          #  1   #  1    # 78   # 81
NCAA NET                                               #  4           # 30
LRMC                                                   #  3   #  1    # 20   # 75
common opponents        +4.67                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +12.1    71.5 59.6
scatter                  4.2     2.8  1.9  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is back to 26-5.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the
road game with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.07    +0.07
HOME   # 74 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.60    -4.60
HOME   #207 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.51   +27.49
HOME   # 69 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +16.24    -4.24
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 29 BYU                         71  56    +8.26    +6.74
NEUT   # 14 Dayton                      90  84    +6.16    -0.16
HOME   # 32 Colorado                    72  58   +11.71    +2.29
HOME   #247 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.89    -2.89
NEUT   #225 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.27   +15.73
AWAY   # 15 Villanova                   55  56    +3.37    -4.37
AWAY   # 64 Stanford                    72  56    +9.17    +6.83
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               60  53    +7.22    -0.22
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                  79  53    +8.06   +17.94
HOME   #  6 Baylor                      55  67    +7.35   -19.35
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma                    66  52    +7.80    +6.20
AWAY   # 57 Texas                       66  57    +8.26    +0.74
HOME   # 71 Kansas State                81  60   +16.50    +4.50
HOME   # 37 Tennessee                   74  68   +12.38    -6.38
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma State              65  50    +8.95    +6.05
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                           +10.52             0.832
HOME   # 57 Texas                                +14.62             0.912
AWAY   # 63 TCU                                   +9.04             0.808
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                         +0.86             0.532
HOME   # 51 Oklahoma                             +14.16             0.931
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                           +14.42             0.913
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                +0.99             0.543
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma State                       +15.31             0.872
AWAY   # 71 Kansas State                         +10.14             0.843
HOME   # 63 TCU                                  +15.40             0.931
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +4.16             0.648

Here is Texas Tech's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 Eastern Illinois            85  60   +20.40    +4.60
HOME   #291 Bethune-Cookman             79  44   +25.01    +9.99
NEUT   #343 Houston Baptist            103  74   +28.20    +0.80
HOME   #231 Tennessee State             72  57   +21.26    -6.26
HOME   #233 Long Island U.(LIU)         96  66   +21.36    +8.64
NEUT   # 21 Iowa                        61  72    -0.08   -10.92
NEUT   # 43 Creighton                   76  83    +2.12    -9.12
AWAY   # 85 DePaul                      60  65    +3.85    -8.85
NEUT   #  7 Louisville                  70  57    -3.13   +16.13
HOME   #263 Southern Miss               71  65   +23.24   -17.24
HOME   #254 UTRGV                       68  58   +22.82   -12.82
HOME   #220 CS Bakersfield              73  58   +20.89    -5.89
HOME   # 60 Oklahoma State              85  50    +7.97   +27.03
HOME   #  6 Baylor                      52  57    +0.01    -5.01
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia               54  66    -6.48    -5.52
AWAY   # 71 Kansas State                77  63    +2.80   +11.20
HOME   # 55 Iowa State                  72  52    +7.08   +12.92
AWAY   # 63 TCU                         54  65    +1.70   -12.70
HOME   # 13 Kentucky                    74  76    +1.77    -3.77
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               89  81    -0.12    +8.12
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -10.52             0.168
HOME   # 51 Oklahoma                              +6.82             0.744
AWAY   # 57 Texas                                 +0.92             0.532
HOME   # 63 TCU                                   +8.06             0.765
AWAY   # 60 Oklahoma State                        +1.61             0.545
HOME   # 71 Kansas State                          +9.16             0.801
AWAY   # 55 Iowa State                            +0.72             0.525
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma                              +0.46             0.518
HOME   # 57 Texas                                 +7.28             0.736
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                -6.35             0.264
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -4.16             0.352