projected Big 12 standings, Round 7

Texas' unexpected road win in Fort Worth, coupled with the Sooners' loss in the Octogon
and the Cyclones' loss to Baylor, was enough for the Longhorns to leapfrog Iowa State,
Oklahoma, and (in the third decimal place) TCU into fifth place.  The Kansas State win
over Oklahoma, coupled with the Cowboys' loss to Kansas, caused those two teams to swap
places at the bottom of the projected standings.  Kansas and Baylor both went from
projected 14-4 conference records to 15-3.  Baylor has projected losses in Morgantown,
at home against Kansas, and one more statistical loss.  Kansas has no projected losses,
but two more statistical losses.

                      Init.  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6  Rnd 7
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.97  13.72  14.14  14.28  14.36  14.77    6  1   TTU (Sa)   KU  by 10.6
#  5  Baylor          10.99  12.05  13.33  13.60  14.01  14.05  14.59    7  0   TCU (Sa)   BU  by 11.3
#  6  West Virginia   10.73  11.92  12.22  12.64  11.31  11.91  11.37    4  3   KSU (Sa)   WVU by 12.5
# 23  Texas Tech       9.33   9.45   9.01   9.55   9.96   9.31   9.93    4  3  @KU  (Sa)   
# 57  Texas            7.25   5.71   6.47   7.45   7.58   6.62   7.58    3  4   ISU (Sa)   UT  by  3.0
# 62  TCU              7.46   8.21   8.83   8.37   7.71   8.49   7.58    4  3  @BU  (Sa)   
# 51  Oklahoma         7.19   8.46   7.91   7.50   8.05   7.93   7.47    3  4   OSU (Sa)   OU  by  4.5
# 54  Iowa State       8.35   7.45   7.86   7.61   6.82   7.44   6.72    2  5  @UT  (Sa)   
# 71  Kansas State     5.30   4.48   4.08   3.46   4.78   4.83   5.47    2  5  @WVU (Sa)   
# 60  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.30   6.57   5.68   5.50   5.06   4.52    0  7  @OU  (Sa)   

Seven Overtimes took honors for best prognostications in Round 7.  Massey retains the season lead.
Worst predictions came from RealTimeRPI.  Dunkel is bringing up rear for the season.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over OSU     7.9  13.0  10.4   7.0   5.5   8.5   8.2  15.3   9.4  11.0   9.0  11.6   6.9  12.3
TCU over UT      3.0   4.0   3.9   4.0   3.0   4.5   4.0   3.0   3.2   3.0  13.0   5.0   4.0  10.6
BU  over ISU     3.0   8.0   6.8   4.0   1.5   5.5   3.6  16.4   4.8  12.0   4.0   6.2   2.0   8.3
WVU over TTU     0.5   3.0   2.5  -2.5  -4.0  -2.5   0.7  11.1  -0.8   6.0   3.0   2.9  -0.5   5.0
KSU over OU      0.2  -2.0  -1.0   1.0  -4.0   1.0   1.0  -9.2   1.0   1.0   2.0  -0.8   1.2   1.3

       Reality  Error                                                                           
       -------  -------2.5----------------------1-----------1----------2----0.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          15     7.1   2.0   4.6   8.0   9.5   6.5   6.8   0.3  5.6   4.0   6.0   3.4   8.1   2.7
          -1     4.0   5.0   4.9   5.0   4.0   5.5   5.0   4.0  4.2   4.0  14.0   6.0   5.0  11.6
          14    11.0   6.0   7.2  10.0  12.5   8.5  10.4   2.4  9.2   2.0  10.0   7.8  12.0   5.7
          -8     8.5  11.0  10.5   5.5   4.0   5.5   8.7  19.1  7.2  14.0  11.0  10.9   7.5  13.0
           8     7.8  10.0   9.0   7.0  12.0   7.0   7.0  17.2  7.0   7.0   6.0   8.8   6.8   6.7

total           38.4  34.0  36.2  35.5  42.0  33.0  37.9  43.0 33.2  31.0  47.0  36.9  39.4  39.7
previous       325.7 307.0 314.9 327.0 380.5 319.5 327.6 332.2 16.5 354.0 354.0 316.5 325.5 323.6
cumulative     364.1 341.0 351.1 362.5 422.5 352.5 365.5 375.2 49.7 385.0 401.0 353.4 364.9 363.3
per game        10.4   9.7  10.0  10.4  12.1  10.1  10.4  10.7 10.0  11.0  11.5  10.1  10.4  10.4

Three road wins were projected for Round 7, and three happened, just not the three that were
expected.  West Virginia failed to win in Lubbock, while TCU failed to protect its home court.
No road wins are projected for Round 8.  The home court reigns supreme.

Road wins (14 out of 35)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
4 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU ISU           0 Baylor                               +4 Baylor        
4 Kansas         ISU OU  UT  OSU           0 West Virginia                        +3 Kansas        
2 Texas          OSU TCU                   1 Kansas         BU                    +1 West Virginia 
1 Oklahoma       UT                        1 Oklahoma       KU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            KSU                       1 TCU            UT                     0 TCU           
1 Texas Tech     KSU                       1 Texas Tech     BU                     0 Texas         
1 West Virginia  OSU                       2 Iowa State     KU  BU                 0 Texas Tech    
0 Iowa State                               2 Kansas State   TCU TTU               -2 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                             2 Texas          OU  KU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           4 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU  KU        -4 Oklahoma State

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.77    Baylor            8.09    
West Virginia   +2.06    Oklahoma          8.90    
Baylor          +1.98    Kansas State      9.95    
TCU             +0.08    Kansas           10.09    
Texas Tech      +0.04    TCU              10.58    
Oklahoma State  -0.43    Iowa State       11.04    
Oklahoma        -0.45    Texas            11.40    
Kansas State    -1.09    West Virginia    11.49    
Iowa State      -1.28    Texas Tech       11.60    
Texas           -2.03    Oklahoma State   16.12    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.43 +/- 0.45    Baylor          +0.26 +/- 0.15
Baylor          +0.42 +/- 0.33    Oklahoma        +0.12 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    +0.31 +/- 0.39    Texas Tech      +0.07 +/- 0.24
Texas Tech      +0.09 +/- 0.46    Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.21
Oklahoma        -0.01 +/- 0.35    Iowa State      -0.06 +/- 0.20
Kansas          -0.22 +/- 0.43    West Virginia   -0.06 +/- 0.34
TCU             -0.27 +/- 0.45    Texas           -0.20 +/- 0.25
Texas           -0.34 +/- 0.45    Kansas          -0.43 +/- 0.28
Iowa State      -0.46 +/- 0.43    Oklahoma State  -0.62 +/- 0.41
Oklahoma State  -0.62 +/- 0.63    TCU             -0.67 +/- 0.25

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          74.74   Baylor          58.63   Iowa State      147.25   Kansas          +14.16   
Iowa State      74.35   Kansas          60.58   Oklahoma        138.65   Baylor          +13.42   
West Virginia   73.35   West Virginia   61.85   Texas Tech      137.00   West Virginia   +11.50   
Texas Tech      72.75   Texas           63.90   Kansas          135.32   Texas Tech       +8.50   
Baylor          72.05   Kansas State    64.00   West Virginia   135.20   TCU              +3.26   
Oklahoma        70.80   TCU             64.05   Oklahoma State  131.65   Oklahoma         +2.95   
TCU             67.32   Texas Tech      64.25   TCU             131.37   Texas            +1.55   
Oklahoma State  66.10   Oklahoma State  65.55   Baylor          130.68   Iowa State       +1.45   
Texas           65.45   Oklahoma        67.85   Texas           129.35   Kansas State     +0.95   
Kansas State    64.95   Iowa State      72.90   Kansas State    128.95   Oklahoma State   +0.55   

Kansas' schedule strenth fell again, even after playing on the road.  I guess
Oklahoma State just wasn't quite strong enough to represent an improvement in
strength of schedule.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          81.90 ( 1)
Iowa State      80.43 ( 6)
Oklahoma        80.06 ( 8)
Oklahoma State  79.95 (10)
West Virginia   79.21 (19)
Kansas State    78.34 (28)
Baylor          77.81 (36)
Texas           77.78 (38)
Texas Tech      76.65 (55)
TCU             75.83 (71)