Projections for tonight's Big 12 games

As per my DPPI;

Baylor favored over Iowa St. on the road by 2.7 points with a 60.0% probability of winning

Kansas St. favored over Oklahoma at home by 3.6 points with a 64.8% probability of winning

TCU favored over Texas at home by 6.9 points with a 73.6% probability of winning

Texas Tech favored over West Virginia at home by 1.0 points with a 51.9% probability of winning

Go Iowa St. and Texas Tech.

Baylor will fall at some point. Even with our prior dominant teams, we always managed to lay an egg or two during conference play.

75%. Not bad at all.

What's interesting to me is that it really is now a 2 horse race with us and Baylor. We now have a 2 game cushion over WVU, TCU and Tech, but if you look at it form the "Self scoring system" where home wins are assumed and you pick up points for road wins, it's a different story. Both Baylor and KU are 4-0 on the road this year, and Texas is next best with 2 wins. Everybody else has 1 or 0 road wins. As a result, KU is +3, Baylor is +4, WVU is +1 and everyone else is at zero or worse.

Most significantly, OSU is essentially eliminated from contention. With 7 losses, the most they could accomplish is an 11 win season, and since it normally takes at least 14 wins (maybe 13 with a tie) to win the league, they can no longer get there. With 5 losses, ISU and KSU are right behind them with only 13 opportunities to win left on the schedule. OU and Texas are the next in line and both would have to win out to get to the magic 14 win mark.

Next up, Baylor hosting TCU has potential of being an interesting game on Saturday. Outside of a (mostly) full strength KU hosting Tech those seem to be the most interesting games happening in the Big 12 on Saturday with significant implications attached.