predictions for Oklahoma State game (MOVED TO ESPN2 @8 CT)

One down, one to go (regarding the McCormack suspension).  Quite amazing
how much difference Udoka made in the Tennessee game.  While Doke was in
the game, the Jayhawks were able to build on their lead.  While Doke was
on the bench with foul trouble, the Vols were able to cut into that lead.
How much of that was due to just the absence of a big versus the absence
of Doke specifically isn't clear, but having McCormack is a valuable
insurance policy.  And we won't have that insurance policy tonight.

This game is especially difficult to predict for a couple of reasons.
First, Oklahoma State is the conference's most inconsistent team by a
large amount.  The Cowboys' inconsistency is 16.56 points, compared to
the next most inconsistent team's (Texas Tech) 11.86 points.  Contrast
that with the most consistent team's (Baylor) 8.05 points.  We simply
don't know which Cowboy team will play tonight.  Will it be the one that
played 37 points above expectation against Mississippi, or the one that
played 28 points below expectation against Texas Tech?  Second, Kansas
has historically had trouble playing in Stillwater.  One can speculate
that it's a conscious or subconscious effect on Self's part to not beat
his alma mater, but then again, Roy Williams didn't do so well in
Stillwater either.  When you've got a lead in the conference race, maybe
you can afford to be nice to your alma mater, but this season we have a
credible threat from Baylor for the league crown, so winning in Stillwater
is critical to keeping pace.

Oklahoma State was Sagarin's #44 team as of the start of conference play,
and they were projected to split their 18 conference games.  But they've
played below expectation in all six of their conference games, sagging all
the way down to Sagarin #85.  They recovered some after beating Texas A&M
on the road.  Still, they have the most negative trend of any conference
team, and are second-last in mental toughness as well.   One could argue
that they're due for an above expectation performance in a conference
game.  I suppose one could argue that they had an above expectation
performance against Baylor, having led for most of that game, but they
let it slip away in the closing minutes and wound up 3 points below
expectation.  That alone suggests that the Cowboys can be dangerous and
need to be taken seriously.

Sagarin Predictor has the margin at 8 points for Kansas.  Oklahoma State
has played 5 games above expectation by enough to overcome that margin,
while Kansas has played just 1 game below expectation by enough to
squander that margin (against Baylor, as we all well know).  That's 6
games out of 38 total played by the two teams, corresponding to a
16 percent chance of Kansas losing the game.

The most optimistic prediction comes from the five common opponents,
where Kansas has averaged 17 points more than Oklahoma State.  The most
pessimistic prediction comes Dunkel, who has Kansas by just 5.5 points.
Must be the Gallagher-Iba effect working on Dunkel.  Then again, Dunkel
has produced the worst predictions of the conference season so far, so
perhaps we should put less weight on his prediction.

Oklahoma State's defense is the third-most porous of Big 12 teams.  They've
also got the third-most impotent offense.  But averages mean little when
the scatter is so high, and I should re-emphasize just how inconsistent
Oklahoma State has been.

Just in case any reader hasn't heard, the game has been moved from ESPN
to ESPN2 to make room for a replay of Kobe Bryant's last NBA game on ESPN.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OSU     KU       Defensive Stats     OSU     KU
Points/Game         67.5    75.6     Opp Points/Game     65.1    60.8
Avg Score Margin    +2.4   +14.8     Opp Effective FG %  46.3    44.1
Assists/Game        11.9    14.8     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.1     9.4
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.3    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.5    26.7
Effective FG %      47.0    54.6     Blocks/Game          3.8     4.8
Off Rebound %       26.6    31.3     Steals/Game          7.4     8.2
FTA/FGA            0.324   0.368     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.3    14.8
Turnover %          16.7    16.4

In other words, Kansas leads in every category.

Common Opponents
================
There are five common opponents, four from the conference plus
Kansas City:

KU  +41 KC  neutral (+41 neutral)
OSU +18 KC  at home (+14 neutral)
KU  +23 OSU on road (+27 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
OSU -14 WVU at home (-18 neutral)
KU  +17 OSU on road (+21 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)
OSU -12 UT  at home (-18 neutral)
KU  +27 OSU on road (+31 neutral)

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)
OSU  -7 BU  at home (-11 neutral)
KU   -9 OSU on road ( -5 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
OSU  -7 ISU on road ( -3 neutral)
KU  +29 OSU on road (+33 neutral)

The Baylor comparison is the odd man out, but the average favors
Kansas by 17.4 points, with a scatter of 15.4 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Lindy Waters (guard) / Isaac Likekele (guard)
most points        Lindy Waters (guard)
most rebounds      Cameron McGriff (forward)
most assists       Isaac Likekele (guard)
most steals        Isaac Likekele (guard)
most blocks        Yor Anei (forward)
most turnovers     Isaac Likekele (guard)
most fouls         Yor Anei (forward)

                                                          16-3           10-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas     Oklahoma State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.65   70   60       80       #  1   #  1    # 73   # 12 
Sagarin Predictor       +7.95   69   61       71.6     #  2   #  1    # 57   # 12 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +8.09   69   61                #  2   #  1    # 60   # 12 
Sagarin Recent Games   +12.11   71   59                #  3   #  1    #100   # 12 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +13.42   71   58       86  
Massey                 +13.00   73   60       87       #  2   #  1    # 77   # 22
Pomeroy                +10.38   70   60                #  1   #  1    # 77   # 15
Greenfield              +7.00   71.5 64.5              #  2   #  1    # 67   # 33
Dunkel                  +5.50   69   63                #  3           # 73                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +8.50   71   63                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +8.21   71   62       77.2     #  2   #  1    # 77   # 33
Real Time               +9.00   77   68       67.4     #  1   #  1    # 94   # 13 
Seven Overtimes        +11.00   73   62       84       #  1   #  3    #107   # 17
DPPI                   +13.30   73.5 60       85.3     #  2   #  1    # 97   # 12
ESPN BPI                +9.40                 80.9     #  3   #  4    # 70   # 24
Whitlock                                               #      #       #      #   
Colley Matrix          +15.27                          #  1   #  1    # 89   # 11
NCAA NET                                               #  4           # 76
LRMC                                                   #  3   #  1    # 90   # 22
common opponents       +17.40                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +10.5    71.4 61.5
scatter                  3.2     2.2  2.5  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 25-6.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the
road game with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.33    +0.33
HOME   # 83 NC Greensboro               74  62   +17.32    -5.32
HOME   #210 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.78   +27.22
HOME   # 61 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.01    -3.01
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 33 BYU                         71  56    +8.46    +6.54
NEUT   # 15 Dayton                      90  84    +5.97    +0.03
HOME   # 25 Colorado                    72  58   +10.81    +3.19
HOME   #257 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.86    -2.86
NEUT   #218 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +24.97   +16.03
AWAY   # 22 Villanova                   55  56    +3.88    -4.88
AWAY   # 64 Stanford                    72  56    +8.88    +7.12
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               60  53    +6.89    +0.11
AWAY   # 48 Iowa State                  79  53    +7.00   +19.00
HOME   #  6 Baylor                      55  67    +7.40   -19.40
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma                    66  52    +7.43    +6.57
AWAY   # 63 Texas                       66  57    +8.79    +0.21
HOME   # 72 Kansas State                81  60   +16.67    +4.33
HOME   # 31 Tennessee                   74  68   +11.52    -5.52
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State                        +7.94             0.716
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                           +10.63             0.829
HOME   # 63 Texas                                +15.17             0.914
AWAY   # 58 TCU                                   +8.14             0.777
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                         +0.51             0.518
HOME   # 51 Oklahoma                             +13.81             0.922
HOME   # 48 Iowa State                           +13.38             0.891
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                +1.02             0.543
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State                       +14.32             0.849
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                         +10.29             0.841
HOME   # 58 TCU                                  +14.52             0.913
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                            +4.25             0.648

Here is Oklahoma State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #129 Oral Roberts                80  75   +10.58    -5.58
HOME   #218 Kansas City(UMKC)           69  51   +17.03    +0.97
AWAY   #132 College of Charleston       73  54    +4.44   +14.56
HOME   # 81 Yale                        64  57    +6.08    +0.92
HOME   #214 Western Michigan            70  63   +16.93    -9.93
NEUT   # 49 Syracuse                    86  72    -0.59   +14.59
NEUT   # 92 Mississippi                 78  37    +3.63   +37.37
HOME   # 55 Georgetown                  74  81    +3.11   -10.11
HOME   # 37 Wichita State               61  80    +1.02   -20.02
AWAY   # 20 Houston                     61  55    -7.37   +13.37
NEUT   # 36 Minnesota                   66  86    -2.21   -17.79
HOME   #320 SE Louisiana                82  31   +23.61   +27.39
AWAY   # 24 Texas Tech                  50  85    -6.88   -28.12
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               41  55    -4.24    -9.76
AWAY   # 58 TCU                         40  52    -2.99    -9.01
HOME   # 63 Texas                       64  76    +4.04   -16.04
HOME   #  6 Baylor                      68  75    -3.73    -3.27
AWAY   # 48 Iowa State                  82  89    -4.13    -2.87
AWAY   #150 Texas A&M                   73  62    +5.40    +5.60
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -7.94             0.284
AWAY   # 51 Oklahoma                              -3.70             0.391
HOME   # 58 TCU                                   +3.39             0.595
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                               -10.11             0.219
AWAY   # 72 Kansas State                          -0.84             0.476
HOME   # 24 Texas Tech                            -0.50             0.486
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                        -10.62             0.229
HOME   # 51 Oklahoma                              +2.68             0.580
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -14.32             0.151
HOME   # 48 Iowa State                            +2.25             0.563
HOME   # 72 Kansas State                          +5.54             0.657
AWAY   # 63 Texas                                 -2.34             0.435