projected Big 12 standings, Round 6+

Saturday's non-conference games altered the ratings slightly, but not by enough for the
projected standings to change, just the projected number of wins, fractionally.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.60  14.97  13.72  14.14  14.28  14.36    5  1  @OSU (Mo)   KU  by  8.0  RW
#  6  Baylor          10.99  11.45  12.05  13.33  13.60  14.01  14.05    6  0  @ISU (We)   BU  by  2.8  RW
#  5  West Virginia   10.73  10.79  11.92  12.22  12.64  11.31  11.91    4  2  @TTU (We)   WVU by  0.6  RW
# 24  Texas Tech       9.33  10.29   9.45   9.01   9.55   9.96   9.31    3  3   WVU (We)   
# 58  TCU              7.46   7.73   8.21   8.83   8.37   7.71   8.49    4  2   UT  (We)   TCU by  3.8
# 51  Oklahoma         7.19   7.31   8.46   7.91   7.50   8.05   7.93    3  3  @KSU (We)   
# 48  Iowa State       8.35   8.00   7.45   7.86   7.61   6.82   7.44    2  4   BU  (We)   
# 64  Texas            7.25   6.83   5.71   6.47   7.45   7.58   6.62    2  4  @TCU (We)   
# 57  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.89   7.30   6.57   5.68   5.50   5.06    0  6   KU  (Mo)   
# 73  Kansas State     5.30   5.11   4.48   4.08   3.46   4.78   4.83    1  5   OU  (We)   KSU by  0.3

Turned out that Colley's web site became accessible again the following day, so I was able to update his
ratings and recompute his predictions, and the changes were enough for him to no longer finish on top of
Round 6's prognostications.  The tie goes to Massey and RealTimeRPI.  Worst predictions belonged to
Seven Overtimes in Round 6, and Dunkel overall.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over KSU    17.0  21.0  17.3  16.5  10.0  15.0  15.9  24.4  18.5  12.0  30.0  21.2  18.0  19.7
BU  over OU      9.8  12.0  11.1  10.0  12.5  10.0   9.7  11.8  12.7  13.0  12.0  11.8  10.8  11.7
WVU over UT      8.5  11.0  10.5   8.5   6.5  10.0   9.5  11.9  12.4   8.0  15.0  12.0   9.5  11.8
ISU over OSU     3.6   7.0   4.2   6.0   3.0   5.5   4.1  -1.4   4.9   1.0   2.0   3.3   4.6   4.4
TTU over TCU     1.5   3.0   2.2   3.0  -1.0   3.0   1.7  -3.4   3.4   2.0  -7.0   2.2   0.5   4.4

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  -------2.5----------------------1-----------1-----------1----0.5------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          21     4.0   0.0   3.7   4.5  11.0   6.0   5.1   3.4   2.5   9.0   9.0   0.2   3.0   1.3
           4     5.8   8.0   7.1   6.0   8.5   6.0   5.7   7.8   8.7   9.0   8.0   7.8   6.8   7.7
          38    29.5  27.0  27.5  29.5  31.5  28.0  28.5  26.1  25.6  30.0  23.0  26.0  28.5  26.2
           7     3.4   0.0   2.8   1.0   4.0   1.5   2.9   8.4   2.1   6.0   5.0   3.7   2.4   2.6
         -11    12.5  14.0  13.2  14.0  10.0  14.0  12.7   7.6  14.4  13.0   4.0  13.2  11.5  15.4

total           55.2  49.0  54.3  55.0  65.0  55.5  54.9  53.3  53.3  67.0  49.0  50.9  52.2  53.2
previous       270.5 258.0 260.6 272.0 315.5 264.0 272.7 278.9 263.2 287.0 305.0 265.6 273.3 270.4
cumulative     325.7 307.0 314.9 327.0 380.5 319.5 327.6 332.2 316.5 354.0 354.0 316.5 325.5 323.6
per game        10.9  10.2  10.5  10.9  12.7  10.6  10.9  11.1  10.6  11.8  11.8  10.6  10.9  10.8

Three road wins are projected for Round 7.

Road wins (11 out of 30)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU               0 Baylor                               +3 Baylor        
3 Kansas         ISU OU  UT                0 TCU                                  +2 Kansas        
1 Oklahoma       UT                        0 West Virginia                        +1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                       1 Iowa State     KU                    +1 West Virginia 
1 Texas          OSU                       1 Kansas         BU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 Texas Tech     KSU                       1 Oklahoma       KU                     0 Texas Tech    
1 West Virginia  OSU                       1 Texas Tech     BU                    -1 Iowa State    
0 Iowa State                               2 Kansas State   TCU TTU               -1 Texas         
0 Kansas State                             2 Texas          OU  KU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           3 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU            -3 Oklahoma State

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +2.79    Baylor            8.05    
West Virginia   +2.33    Oklahoma          8.95    
Baylor          +1.78    Kansas State     10.10    
Texas Tech      -0.04    Kansas           10.47    
Oklahoma        -0.19    TCU              10.87    
TCU             -0.20    Iowa State       11.23    
Oklahoma State  -0.90    West Virginia    11.57    
Kansas State    -1.31    Texas            11.68    
Iowa State      -1.53    Texas Tech       11.86    
Texas           -1.58    Oklahoma State   16.56    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.68 +/- 0.47    Baylor          +0.24 +/- 0.15
Baylor          +0.39 +/- 0.36    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.21
Kansas State    +0.23 +/- 0.43    West Virginia   +0.04 +/- 0.37
Oklahoma        +0.10 +/- 0.39    Texas Tech      +0.04 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech      -0.01 +/- 0.51    Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.21
TCU             -0.26 +/- 0.50    Iowa State      -0.04 +/- 0.21
Kansas          -0.31 +/- 0.48    Texas           -0.21 +/- 0.26
Iowa State      -0.37 +/- 0.48    Kansas          -0.42 +/- 0.29
Texas           -0.50 +/- 0.49    Oklahoma State  -0.64 +/- 0.44
Oklahoma State  -0.65 +/- 0.70    TCU             -0.67 +/- 0.26

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      75.58   Baylor          59.06   Iowa State      148.68   Kansas          +13.89   
Kansas          75.17   West Virginia   60.53   Oklahoma        139.95   Baylor          +13.17   
West Virginia   72.84   Kansas          61.28   Kansas          136.44   West Virginia   +12.32   
Baylor          72.22   Texas Tech      63.26   Texas Tech      135.26   Texas Tech       +8.74   
Texas Tech      72.00   TCU             64.06   West Virginia   133.37   TCU              +3.72   
Oklahoma        71.63   Texas           64.16   Oklahoma State  132.53   Oklahoma         +3.32   
TCU             67.78   Kansas State    64.47   TCU             131.83   Iowa State       +2.47   
Oklahoma State  67.05   Oklahoma State  65.47   Baylor          131.28   Oklahoma State   +1.58   
Texas           65.53   Oklahoma        68.32   Kansas State    129.74   Texas            +1.37   
Kansas State    65.26   Iowa State      73.11   Texas           129.68   Kansas State     +0.79   

Everybody is in the Top 70 now.  The rating for Kansas slipped by 0.01 points, despite having
played the #31 team in the land, albeit at home.  It will be interesting to see what happens
to the rating after playing the #57 team, but on the road.  Will it go up?  Will it go down?

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          82.16 ( 1)
Iowa State      79.90 ( 7)
Oklahoma        79.79 ( 9)
Oklahoma State  79.50 (11)
West Virginia   78.53 (23)
Kansas State    78.19 (28)
Baylor          77.24 (38)
Texas           77.13 (42)
Texas Tech      76.02 (63)
TCU             75.81 (69)