projected Big 12 standings, Round 6

Oklahoma had a valiant effort against Baylor, but ultimately fell short, while TCU
defended its home court against favored Texas Tech, which was enough for the Horned
Frogs to reclaim fifth place over the Sooners.  Meanwhile, the drubbing of Texas in
Morgantown, coupled with the Cyclones' home win over the hapless Cowboys elevated
Iowa State over Texas for seventh place.  No other changes in the standings, though
Kansas did gain a little breathing room over Baylor, but the sharing of the crown
is still projected.

Press the pause button; the conference race takes the weekend off to do the SEC
Challenge.  Last chance for the Big 12 to regain first place among conferences
over the Big Ten until the NCAA Tournament in March.  Round 7 isn't until next
week's midweek games.  The predictions call for the Big 12 and SEC to split 5 and 5,
with the only road team favored being Oklahoma State.  Best matchups are LSU at
Texas, and Baylor at Florida, which could go either way.  Kentucky at Texas Tech
is projected as another one-possession game.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5  Rnd 6
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.60  14.97  13.72  14.14  14.28  14.40    5  1   Ten (Sa)   KU  by 12.2
#  9  Baylor          10.99  11.45  12.05  13.33  13.60  14.01  13.91    6  0  @Fla (Sa)   Fla by  0.7
#  5  West Virginia   10.73  10.79  11.92  12.22  12.64  11.31  11.72    4  2   Miz (Sa)   WVU by 12.4
# 26  Texas Tech       9.33  10.29   9.45   9.01   9.55   9.96   9.27    3  3   Ken (Sa)   TTU by  1.3
# 57  TCU              7.46   7.73   8.21   8.83   8.37   7.71   8.58    4  2  @Ark (Sa)   Ark by  5.7
# 47  Oklahoma         7.19   7.31   8.46   7.91   7.50   8.05   8.13    3  3   MSU (Sa)   OU  by  3.3
# 49  Iowa State       8.35   8.00   7.45   7.86   7.61   6.82   7.39    2  4  @Aub (Sa)   Aub by  7.1
# 62  Texas            7.25   6.83   5.71   6.47   7.45   7.58   6.78    2  4   LSU (Sa)   LSU by  0.7
# 59  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.89   7.30   6.57   5.68   5.50   5.00    0  6  @A&M (Sa)   OSU by  4.8
# 77  Kansas State     5.30   5.11   4.48   4.08   3.46   4.78   4.82    1  5  @Ala (Sa)   Ala by  7.7

Well, the best prognostications in Round 6 came from Colley, whose ratings had not been updated
because the web site was not accessible.  Should that disqualify him?  The next closest ones
were from Massey and RealTimeRPI, who tied.  Massey retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over KSU    17.0  21.0  17.3  16.5  10.0  15.0  15.9  25.1  18.5  12.0  30.0  21.2  18.0  19.7
BU  over OU      9.8  12.0  11.1  10.0  12.5  10.0   9.7  10.7  12.7  13.0  12.0  11.8  10.8  11.7
WVU over UT      8.5  11.0  10.5   8.5   6.5  10.0   9.5  14.6  12.4   8.0  15.0  12.0   9.5  11.8
ISU over OSU     3.6   7.0   4.2   6.0   3.0   5.5   4.1  -2.2   4.9   1.0   2.0   3.3   4.6   4.4
TTU over TCU     1.5   3.0   2.2   3.0  -1.0   3.0   1.7  -8.7   3.4   2.0  -7.0   2.2   0.5   4.4

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  --------2-----------------------1-----------1-----------1-------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          21     4.0   0.0   3.7   4.5  11.0   6.0   5.1   4.1   2.5   9.0   9.0   0.2   3.0   1.3
           4     5.8   8.0   7.1   6.0   8.5   6.0   5.7   6.7   8.7   9.0   8.0   7.8   6.8   7.7
          38    29.5  27.0  27.5  29.5  31.5  28.0  28.5  23.4  25.6  30.0  23.0  26.0  28.5  26.2
           7     3.4   0.0   2.8   1.0   4.0   1.5   2.9   9.2   2.1   6.0   5.0   3.7   2.4   2.6
         -11    12.5  14.0  13.2  14.0  10.0  14.0  12.7   2.3  14.4  13.0   4.0  13.2  11.5  15.4

total           55.2  49.0  54.3  55.0  65.0  55.5  54.9  45.7  53.3  67.0  49.0  50.9  52.2  53.2
previous       270.5 258.0 260.6 272.0 315.5 264.0 272.7 278.9 263.2 287.0 305.0 265.6 273.3 270.4
cumulative     325.7 307.0 314.9 327.0 380.5 319.5 327.6 324.6 316.5 354.0 354.0 316.5 325.5 323.6
per game        10.9  10.2  10.5  10.9  12.7  10.6  10.9  10.8  10.6  11.8  11.8  10.6  10.9  10.8

All the home teams won in Round 6, despite there being one projected road win,
so we're very close to the long-term average of one road win in every three games.

Road wins (11 out of 30)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU               0 Baylor                               +3 Baylor        
3 Kansas         ISU OU  UT                0 TCU                                  +2 Kansas        
1 Oklahoma       UT                        0 West Virginia                        +1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                       1 Iowa State     KU                    +1 West Virginia 
1 Texas          OSU                       1 Kansas         BU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 Texas Tech     KSU                       1 Oklahoma       KU                     0 Texas Tech    
1 West Virginia  OSU                       1 Texas Tech     BU                    -1 Iowa State    
0 Iowa State                               2 Kansas State   TCU TTU               -1 Texas         
0 Kansas State                             2 Texas          OU  KU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           3 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU            -3 Oklahoma State

West Virginia and Texas both jumped in inconsistency.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +3.07    Baylor            7.89    
West Virginia   +2.33    Oklahoma          9.29    
Baylor          +1.59    Kansas State     10.15    
Texas Tech      +0.24    Kansas           10.54    
TCU             -0.05    TCU              11.03    
Oklahoma        -0.45    Iowa State       11.48    
Oklahoma State  -1.12    West Virginia    11.84    
Kansas State    -1.48    Texas            12.03    
Iowa State      -1.53    Texas Tech       12.17    
Texas           -2.01    Oklahoma State   16.86    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.65 +/- 0.53    Baylor          +0.21 +/- 0.15
Baylor          +0.25 +/- 0.40    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.22
Kansas State    +0.14 +/- 0.47    West Virginia   +0.08 +/- 0.37
Oklahoma        +0.12 +/- 0.43    Texas Tech      +0.05 +/- 0.26
Texas Tech      +0.03 +/- 0.57    Iowa State      -0.04 +/- 0.22
Kansas          -0.20 +/- 0.54    Kansas State    -0.06 +/- 0.22
TCU             -0.25 +/- 0.56    Texas           -0.23 +/- 0.27
Iowa State      -0.53 +/- 0.52    Kansas          -0.44 +/- 0.29
Texas           -0.59 +/- 0.54    Oklahoma State  -0.67 +/- 0.45
Oklahoma State  -0.89 +/- 0.76    TCU             -0.75 +/- 0.28

Oklahoma State and Kansas State are in danger of dropping into negative territory in terms
of scoring margin.

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      75.44   Baylor          59.06   Iowa State      148.28   Kansas          +14.59   
Kansas          75.35   Kansas          60.76   Oklahoma        140.78   Baylor          +13.06   
West Virginia   72.89   West Virginia   60.94   Kansas          136.12   West Virginia   +11.94   
Oklahoma        72.22   Texas Tech      62.44   Texas Tech      134.44   Texas Tech       +9.56   
Baylor          72.12   TCU             63.35   West Virginia   133.83   TCU              +4.35   
Texas Tech      72.00   Texas           63.78   Oklahoma State  133.29   Oklahoma         +3.67   
TCU             67.71   Kansas State    63.89   Baylor          131.18   Iowa State       +2.61   
Oklahoma State  66.61   Oklahoma State  65.78   TCU             131.06   Texas            +1.78   
Texas           65.56   Oklahoma        68.56   Texas           129.33   Oklahoma State   +0.83   
Kansas State    64.67   Iowa State      72.83   Kansas State    128.56   Kansas State     +0.78   

Well, Texas Tech is no longer in last place in terms of schedule strength.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          82.17 ( 1)
Oklahoma        79.98 ( 5)
Oklahoma State  79.64 (10)
Iowa State      79.31 (11)
West Virginia   78.69 (18)
Kansas State    77.86 (25)
Texas           76.74 (45)
Baylor          76.57 (50)
Texas Tech      75.21 (71)
TCU             75.05 (74)