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predictions for Kansas State game

  • asteroid
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4 years 2 months ago #24421 by asteroid
We're at home against the conference's lowest rated team.  In other
words, it doesn't get any easier than this.  And to think that just
last season, Kansas State shared the conference championship with
Texas Tech.  Oh how the mighty have fallen.  But it does serve to
illustrate just how remarkable a job Bill Self has done keeping the
Jayhawks near the top of not just the Big 12 conference, but of all
of Division I.  Other teams have to rebuild; Self just reloads.

This game was looking like it would be a laugher, until this past
weekend, when the Mountaineers strolled into the Octogon a 7 point
favorite and limped out with a 16 point loss.  It was the Wildcats'
first conference win of the season, and it came over a contender,
no less.  Maybe it shows that Kansas State can play competetive
basketball, or maybe it was just one of those statistical fluctuations
that are bound to happen from time to time.

Sagarin has the margin at 17 points, and twice this season Kansas State
has played above expectation by more than that amount (against Alabama
State and against West Virginia).  Only once this season has Kansas
played below expectation by more than that amount (against Baylor,
and it was at home), so it can happen, and it has happened.  But that's
just three cases total out of the 34 games played by both teams,
corresponding to just a 9 percent chance of the Jayhawks losing the
game.  What are the chances that it could happen two home games in a
row?  Well, I haven't kept statistics on consecutive large statistical
fluctuations, but by way of example, look at what West Virginia has
done.  They played 21 points above expectation at home against TCU,
then turned around and played 23 points below expectation on the road
at Kansas State, then went back home and played 27 points above
expectation against Texas.  So again, it can happen, and has happened.

Perhaps the bigger question is, will Kansas manage to avoid any new
injuries?  So far this season, you can point to an injured player in
all three losses.  No Moss for the opener against Duke (hamstring),
Garrett went out against Villanova (ankle), and Dotson went out and
was later hobbled against Baylor (hip pointer).  The Kansas starting
five are very good, but the bench hasn't come along quite as well as
we had hoped, so when somebody goes down with an injury, there is a
dropoff, and by enough to lose games.

All the predicted margins are in double figures.  Dunkel is the most
pessimistic at just 10 points.  RealTimeRPI, with its monster home
court advantage, is the most optimistic at 30 points.  Three of the
common opponents average to a 30 point win for Kansas, but that West
Virginia comparison favors Kansas State, so the average of all four
drops to 21 points.  The average is 18.5 points.  Like most Big 12
teams, Kansas State's strength is its defense, which holds opponents
to an average of 63 points.  Kansas' defense is better, holding
opponents to under 61 points.  Only Dayton has scored more than 68
points against the Jayhawks (Dayton has the #2 offense behind Gonzaga,
according to Pomeroy).  Bradley, Marquette, and Texas Tech all
managed to score more than that against Kansas State; the Kansas
offense is better than all three of those teams.  Since that Dayton
game, Kansas has played ten games, and only two of those opponents
managed to get out of the 50s (Baylor and the cupcake Milwaukee,
whom Kansas had no trouble scoring against, and so could afford to
let up on the defensive intensity).

Of course, the wild card in all of this is the fact that it is a
rivalry game.  Broadcasters like to say "toss the records out the
window".  The schedulers should have put this game next week on
Wednesday, which is Kansas Day.

Before I wrap this up, I should note that Colley's web site is
currently redirecting to example.com, so the ratings I used for
his predictions in Round 6 are out-of-date.  I'm guessing he forgot
to pay his website hosting fees, so I'm expecting his site to be back,
but who knows when?  His prediction of 25 points, the second-most
optimistic of the bunch, therefore doesn't include the Kansas State
miracle over West Virginia.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     KSU     KU       Defensive Stats     KSU     KU
Points/Game         65.6    75.4     Opp Points/Game     62.2    60.4
Avg Score Margin    +3.5   +14.9     Opp Effective FG %  47.3    43.5
Assists/Game        13.8    15.1     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.1     9.1
Total Rebounds/Gm   33.2    39.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.2    27.2
Effective FG %      49.3    55.0     Blocks/Game          2.8     4.6
Off Rebound %       26.5    30.7     Steals/Game          8.8     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.355   0.361     Personal Fouls/Gm   18.2    14.7
Turnover %          19.0    17.2

The only category in which Kansas State leads is steals per game.

Common Opponents
================
There are four common opponents, three in the conference plus Monmouth:

KU  +55 Mon at home (+51 neutral)
KSU +19 Mon at home (+15 neutral)
KU  +40 KSU at home (+36 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)
KSU  -5 OU  on road ( -1 neutral)
KU  +23 KSU at home (+19 neutral)

KU   +9 UT  on road (+13 neutral)
KSU -14 UT  on road (-10 neutral)
KU  +27 KSU at home (+23 neutral)

KU   +7 WVU at home ( +3 neutral)
KSU +16 WVU at home (+12 neutral)
KU   -5 KSU at home ( -9 neutral)

That last comparison sticks out like a sore thumb.  No obvious explanation
for it.  But the average favors Kansas by 21.3 points, with a scatter of
18.9 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Cartier Diarra (guard)
most points        Xavier Sneed (forward)
most rebounds      Xavier Sneed (forward)
most assists       Cartier Diarra (guard)
most steals        Cartier Diarra (guard)
most blocks        Makol Mawien (forward)
most turnovers     Cartier Diarra (guard)
most fouls         Makol Mawien (forward)

Guard Mike McGuirl has missed the last two games for concussion protocol.
Forward James Love III has been out with a foot injury.
Forward Nigel Shadd has been out with a knee injury.
Forward Antonio Gordon is nursing a minor shoulder injury.
Love has averaged only 2 minutes per game, so not a major loss, and Shadd
has yet to play.  McGuirl, on the other hand, is fourth in minutes per game,
though they obviously didn't miss him in the win over West Virginia.  Gordon
is their sixth man in terms of minutes played.

                                                          14-3            8-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      Kansas State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +16.95   70   53       90       #  1   #  1    # 79   # 40 
Sagarin Predictor      +17.01   70   53       94.5     #  2   #  1    # 79   # 40 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +16.76   70   53                #  2   #  1    # 75   # 40 
Sagarin Recent Games   +17.16   70   53                #  3   #  1    # 89   # 40 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +22.21   73   51       94  
Massey                 +21.00   74   53       96       #  2   #  1    #109   # 54
Pomeroy                +17.31   69   51                #  1   #  1    # 88   # 48
Greenfield             +16.50   72   55.5              #  1   #  1    # 88   # 68
Dunkel                 +10.00   67.5 57.5              #  4           # 94                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +15.00   70.5 55.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +15.85   72   57       92.7     #  1   #  1    # 92   # 68
Real Time              +30.00   89   59       94.1     #  1   #  1    #125   # 27 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   72   60       87       #  1   #  3    #102   # 68
DPPI                   +22.50   75   52.5     98.6     #  2   #  1    #108   # 46
ESPN BPI               +18.50                 95.2     #  3   #  1    # 97   # 61
Colley Matrix    old   +25.13                          #      #       #      #   
NCAA NET                                               #  3           # 84
LRMC                                                   #  3   #  1    #100   # 47
common opponents       +21.25                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +18.5    72.4 54.6
scatter                  4.8     5.2  2.9  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 25-6.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the
road game with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.01    +0.01
HOME   # 73 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.52    -4.52
HOME   #214 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.92   +27.08
HOME   # 63 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.13    -3.13
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 36 BYU                         71  56    +8.91    +6.09
NEUT   # 18 Dayton                      90  84    +6.62    -0.62
HOME   # 30 Colorado                    72  58   +11.52    +2.48
HOME   #247 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.47    -2.47
NEUT   #235 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.73   +15.27
AWAY   # 27 Villanova                   55  56    +4.52    -5.52
AWAY   # 60 Stanford                    72  56    +8.43    +7.57
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               60  53    +7.24    -0.24
AWAY   # 52 Iowa State                  79  53    +7.61   +18.39
HOME   #  9 Baylor                      55  67    +7.74   -19.74
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma                    66  52    +7.16    +6.84
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       66  57    +8.61    +0.39
HOME   # 79 Kansas State                         +17.01             0.945
HOME   # 42 Tennessee                            +12.71             0.878
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State                        +8.03             0.710
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                           +10.37             0.816
HOME   # 61 Texas                                +14.99             0.905
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   +8.68             0.787
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                         +0.86             0.530
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma                             +13.54             0.910
HOME   # 52 Iowa State                           +13.99             0.892
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                                +1.36             0.557
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State                       +14.41             0.839
AWAY   # 79 Kansas State                         +10.63             0.841
HOME   # 62 TCU                                  +15.06             0.916
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +3.99             0.635

Here is Kansas State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #145 North Dakota State          67  54    +8.89    +4.11
AWAY   #134 UNLV                        60  56    +1.67    +2.33
HOME   #214 Monmouth-NJ                 73  54   +14.10    +4.90
HOME   #345 Ark.-Pine Bluff             62  51   +27.09   -16.09
NEUT   # 70 Pittsburgh                  59  63    -0.79    -3.21
NEUT   # 94 Bradley                     60  73    +1.32   -14.32
HOME   #326 Florida A&M                 76  58   +21.71    -3.71
HOME   # 31 Marquette                   65  73    -2.11    -5.89
HOME   #341 Alabama State               86  41   +23.96   +21.04
NEUT   # 47 Mississippi State           61  67    -3.40    -2.60
NEUT   # 97 Saint Louis                 63  66    +1.72    -4.72
HOME   #113 Tulsa                       69  67    +6.27    -4.27
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma                    61  66    -6.66    +1.66
HOME   # 62 TCU                         57  59    +1.24    -3.24
AWAY   # 61 Texas                       50  64    -5.21    -8.79
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                  63  77    -3.45   -10.55
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               84  68    -6.58   +22.58
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -17.01             0.055
AWAY   # 38 Alabama                               -7.89             0.231
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma                              -0.28             0.489
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                        -12.96             0.122
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                -6.08             0.255
AWAY   # 52 Iowa State                            -6.21             0.288
HOME   # 57 Oklahoma State                        +0.59             0.516
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   -5.14             0.316
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            -9.83             0.193
HOME   # 61 Texas                                 +1.17             0.541
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                               -12.46             0.089
HOME   #  2 Kansas                               -10.63             0.159
AWAY   # 57 Oklahoma State                        -5.79             0.344
HOME   # 52 Iowa State                            +0.17             0.506
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk, jaythawk1

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4 years 2 months ago #24422 by JRhawk
Yes, tonight's game on next Wed would have been nice - they got the return match on the 29th, just a month late on leap year day. Who knows whether KSU's WVU was the anomaly or whether the rest of their season has been. They have several returning starters, so would have expected more wins than have. I imagine that UT was sorry that KSU clobbered WSU, since they took a 38 point thrashing at WVU last night.

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4 years 2 months ago #24423 by hairyhawk
I think with WVU home and away is very different. They play very physical and if the zebras are inclined to give them the benefit of any doubt they do well. If on the other hand they are not getting the benefit of the doubt they struggle. I wonder if we looked at the past 5 years who, in the big XII, has the biggest discrepancy in score of home vs away, WVU would win that challange.
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