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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
projected Big 12 standings, Round 5
- asteroid
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4 years 3 months ago #24402
by asteroid
Oklahoma's big win over TCU was enough to leapfrog both TCU and fellow loser Iowa State
into fifth place in the projected standings. Although Iowa State and Texas both lost,
the Cyclone's loss was so much more than expected that they also dropped below Texas.
No other changes, though the separation between Kansas and Baylor continued to shrink.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4 Rnd 5
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 2 Kansas 14.45 14.60 14.97 13.72 14.14 14.28 4 1 KSU (Tu) KU by 16.9
# 6 Baylor 10.99 11.45 12.05 13.33 13.60 14.01 5 0 OU (Mo) BU by 9.7
# 9 West Virginia 10.73 10.79 11.92 12.22 12.64 11.31 3 2 UT (Mo) WVU by 8.5
# 21 Texas Tech 9.33 10.29 9.45 9.01 9.55 9.96 3 2 @TCU (Tu) TTU by 1.5 road win
# 51 Oklahoma 7.19 7.31 8.46 7.91 7.50 8.05 3 2 @BU (Mo)
# 62 TCU 7.46 7.73 8.21 8.83 8.37 7.71 3 2 TTU (Tu)
# 45 Texas 7.25 6.83 5.71 6.47 7.45 7.58 2 3 @WVU (Mo)
# 49 Iowa State 8.35 8.00 7.45 7.86 7.61 6.82 1 4 OSU (Tu) ISU by 3.6
# 56 Oklahoma State 8.95 7.89 7.30 6.57 5.68 5.50 0 5 @ISU (Tu)
# 79 Kansas State 5.30 5.11 4.48 4.08 3.46 4.78 1 4 @KU (Tu)
Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 5. Massey retains the season lead.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
KU over UT 7.8 10.0 8.1 6.5 2.5 7.0 7.3 7.4 6.8 7.0 1.0 12.3 6.8 9.8
WVU over KSU 7.4 11.0 9.6 5.0 15.0 5.5 6.5 19.5 6.7 13.0 10.0 11.6 6.4 14.8
TTU over ISU 5.8 7.0 7.1 7.5 5.5 8.0 7.1 7.1 9.3 6.0 14.0 7.3 6.8 8.4
BU over OSU 4.2 11.0 7.0 5.5 15.5 6.0 3.8 9.1 5.0 10.0 -1.0 6.4 3.2 12.5
OU over TCU 3.3 5.0 3.6 3.0 -2.5 4.0 3.3 4.0 4.3 -12. 5.0 2.2 4.3 3.2
Reality Error
------- --------2-----------------------1-----------1-----------1-------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
9 1.2 1.0 0.9 2.5 6.5 2.0 1.7 1.6 2.2 2.0 8.0 3.3 2.2 0.8
-16 23.4 27.0 25.6 21.0 31.0 21.5 22.5 35.5 22.7 29.0 26.0 27.6 22.4 30.8
20 14.2 13.0 12.9 12.5 14.5 12.0 12.9 12.9 10.7 14.0 6.0 12.7 13.2 11.6
7 2.8 4.0 0.0 1.5 8.5 1.0 3.2 2.1 2.0 3.0 8.0 0.6 3.8 5.5
20 16.7 15.0 16.4 17.0 22.5 16.0 16.7 16.0 15.7 32.0 15.0 17.8 15.7 16.8
total 58.3 60.0 55.8 54.5 83.0 52.5 57.0 68.1 53.3 80.0 63.0 62.0 57.3 65.5
previous 212.2 198.0 204.8 217.5 232.5 211.5 215.7 210.8 209.9 207.0 242.0 203.6 216.0 204.9
cumulative 270.5 258.0 260.6 272.0 315.5 264.0 272.7 278.9 263.2 287.0 305.0 265.6 273.3 270.4
per game 10.8 10.3 10.4 10.9 12.6 10.6 10.9 11.2 10.5 11.5 12.2 10.6 10.9 10.8
Kansas and Baylor both picked up road wins, while West Virginia failed to do so. Just one road
win is projected for Round 6.
Road wins (11 out of 25) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
3 Baylor TTU KU OSU 0 Baylor +3 Baylor
3 Kansas ISU OU UT 0 TCU +2 Kansas
1 Oklahoma UT 0 West Virginia +1 TCU
1 TCU KSU 1 Iowa State KU +1 West Virginia
1 Texas OSU 1 Kansas BU 0 Oklahoma
1 Texas Tech KSU 1 Oklahoma KU 0 Texas Tech
1 West Virginia OSU 1 Texas Tech BU -1 Iowa State
0 Iowa State 2 Kansas State TCU TTU -1 Texas
0 Kansas State 2 Texas OU KU -2 Kansas State
0 Oklahoma State 3 Oklahoma State WVU UT BU -3 Oklahoma State
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Kansas +3.09 Baylor 7.94
Baylor +1.70 Oklahoma 9.60
West Virginia +1.41 Kansas State 10.20
Texas Tech +0.49 West Virginia 10.35
TCU -0.26 Texas 10.61
Oklahoma -0.34 Kansas 10.82
Oklahoma State -1.19 TCU 11.09
Kansas State -1.22 Iowa State 11.78
Iowa State -1.63 Texas Tech 12.24
Texas -2.09 Oklahoma State 17.35
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
Baylor +0.49 +/- 0.43 Baylor +0.22 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech +0.28 +/- 0.62 Oklahoma +0.13 +/- 0.24
West Virginia +0.24 +/- 0.53 Texas Tech +0.12 +/- 0.27
Kansas State +0.23 +/- 0.52 West Virginia +0.10 +/- 0.32
Oklahoma +0.03 +/- 0.49 Texas 0.00 +/- 0.26
Texas -0.15 +/- 0.54 Iowa State -0.04 +/- 0.22
Kansas -0.23 +/- 0.60 Kansas State -0.07 +/- 0.24
TCU -0.61 +/- 0.60 Kansas -0.46 +/- 0.30
Iowa State -0.71 +/- 0.57 Oklahoma State -0.71 +/- 0.48
Oklahoma State -1.01 +/- 0.85 TCU -0.88 +/- 0.26
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Kansas 75.13 Baylor 59.06 Iowa State 146.94 Kansas +14.44
Iowa State 74.76 Kansas 60.69 Oklahoma 142.12 Baylor +13.88
Oklahoma 73.00 West Virginia 60.94 Kansas 135.81 West Virginia +10.65
Baylor 72.94 Texas 61.94 Texas Tech 135.35 Texas Tech +10.53
Texas Tech 72.94 Texas Tech 62.41 West Virginia 132.53 TCU +4.19
West Virginia 71.59 Kansas State 63.00 Baylor 132.00 Oklahoma +3.88
TCU 68.00 TCU 63.81 TCU 131.81 Texas +3.88
Texas 65.82 Oklahoma State 64.53 Oklahoma State 130.12 Iowa State +2.59
Oklahoma State 65.59 Oklahoma 69.12 Kansas State 127.82 Kansas State +1.82
Kansas State 64.82 Iowa State 72.18 Texas 127.76 Oklahoma State +1.06
Everybody is now in the Top 100.
Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas 82.65 ( 1)
Iowa State 79.64 ( 8)
Oklahoma State 79.39 (11)
Oklahoma 79.18 (12)
West Virginia 78.74 (16)
Kansas State 76.92 (41)
Baylor 76.51 (46)
Texas 75.92 (58)
TCU 74.52 (92)
Texas Tech 74.37 (96)
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