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projected Big 12 standings, Round 5

  • asteroid
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1 month 6 days ago #24402 by asteroid
Oklahoma's big win over TCU was enough to leapfrog both TCU and fellow loser Iowa State
into fifth place in the projected standings.  Although Iowa State and Texas both lost,
the Cyclone's loss was so much more than expected that they also dropped below Texas.
No other changes, though the separation between Kansas and Baylor continued to shrink.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3  Rnd 4  Rnd 5
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.60  14.97  13.72  14.14  14.28    4  1   KSU (Tu)   KU  by 16.9
#  6  Baylor          10.99  11.45  12.05  13.33  13.60  14.01    5  0   OU  (Mo)   BU  by  9.7
#  9  West Virginia   10.73  10.79  11.92  12.22  12.64  11.31    3  2   UT  (Mo)   WVU by  8.5
# 21  Texas Tech       9.33  10.29   9.45   9.01   9.55   9.96    3  2  @TCU (Tu)   TTU by  1.5  road win
# 51  Oklahoma         7.19   7.31   8.46   7.91   7.50   8.05    3  2  @BU  (Mo)   
# 62  TCU              7.46   7.73   8.21   8.83   8.37   7.71    3  2   TTU (Tu)   
# 45  Texas            7.25   6.83   5.71   6.47   7.45   7.58    2  3  @WVU (Mo)   
# 49  Iowa State       8.35   8.00   7.45   7.86   7.61   6.82    1  4   OSU (Tu)   ISU by  3.6
# 56  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.89   7.30   6.57   5.68   5.50    0  5  @ISU (Tu)   
# 79  Kansas State     5.30   5.11   4.48   4.08   3.46   4.78    1  4  @KU  (Tu)   

Vegas took honors for best prognostications in Round 5.  Massey retains the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over UT      7.8  10.0   8.1   6.5   2.5   7.0   7.3   7.4   6.8   7.0   1.0  12.3   6.8   9.8
WVU over KSU     7.4  11.0   9.6   5.0  15.0   5.5   6.5  19.5   6.7  13.0  10.0  11.6   6.4  14.8
TTU over ISU     5.8   7.0   7.1   7.5   5.5   8.0   7.1   7.1   9.3   6.0  14.0   7.3   6.8   8.4
BU  over OSU     4.2  11.0   7.0   5.5  15.5   6.0   3.8   9.1   5.0  10.0  -1.0   6.4   3.2  12.5
OU  over TCU     3.3   5.0   3.6   3.0  -2.5   4.0   3.3   4.0   4.3  -12.   5.0   2.2   4.3   3.2

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  --------2-----------------------1-----------1-----------1-------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
           9     1.2   1.0   0.9   2.5   6.5   2.0   1.7   1.6   2.2   2.0   8.0   3.3   2.2   0.8
         -16    23.4  27.0  25.6  21.0  31.0  21.5  22.5  35.5  22.7  29.0  26.0  27.6  22.4  30.8
          20    14.2  13.0  12.9  12.5  14.5  12.0  12.9  12.9  10.7  14.0   6.0  12.7  13.2  11.6
           7     2.8   4.0   0.0   1.5   8.5   1.0   3.2   2.1   2.0   3.0   8.0   0.6   3.8   5.5
          20    16.7  15.0  16.4  17.0  22.5  16.0  16.7  16.0  15.7  32.0  15.0  17.8  15.7  16.8

total           58.3  60.0  55.8  54.5  83.0  52.5  57.0  68.1  53.3  80.0  63.0  62.0  57.3  65.5
previous       212.2 198.0 204.8 217.5 232.5 211.5 215.7 210.8 209.9 207.0 242.0 203.6 216.0 204.9
cumulative     270.5 258.0 260.6 272.0 315.5 264.0 272.7 278.9 263.2 287.0 305.0 265.6 273.3 270.4
per game        10.8  10.3  10.4  10.9  12.6  10.6  10.9  11.2  10.5  11.5  12.2  10.6  10.9  10.8

Kansas and Baylor both picked up road wins, while West Virginia failed to do so.  Just one road
win is projected for Round 6.

Road wins (11 out of 25)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
3 Baylor         TTU KU  OSU               0 Baylor                               +3 Baylor        
3 Kansas         ISU OU  UT                0 TCU                                  +2 Kansas        
1 Oklahoma       UT                        0 West Virginia                        +1 TCU           
1 TCU            KSU                       1 Iowa State     KU                    +1 West Virginia 
1 Texas          OSU                       1 Kansas         BU                     0 Oklahoma      
1 Texas Tech     KSU                       1 Oklahoma       KU                     0 Texas Tech    
1 West Virginia  OSU                       1 Texas Tech     BU                    -1 Iowa State    
0 Iowa State                               2 Kansas State   TCU TTU               -1 Texas         
0 Kansas State                             2 Texas          OU  KU                -2 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           3 Oklahoma State WVU UT  BU            -3 Oklahoma State

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +3.09    Baylor            7.94    
Baylor          +1.70    Oklahoma          9.60    
West Virginia   +1.41    Kansas State     10.20    
Texas Tech      +0.49    West Virginia    10.35    
TCU             -0.26    Texas            10.61    
Oklahoma        -0.34    Kansas           10.82    
Oklahoma State  -1.19    TCU              11.09    
Kansas State    -1.22    Iowa State       11.78    
Iowa State      -1.63    Texas Tech       12.24    
Texas           -2.09    Oklahoma State   17.35    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
Baylor          +0.49 +/- 0.43    Baylor          +0.22 +/- 0.15
Texas Tech      +0.28 +/- 0.62    Oklahoma        +0.13 +/- 0.24
West Virginia   +0.24 +/- 0.53    Texas Tech      +0.12 +/- 0.27
Kansas State    +0.23 +/- 0.52    West Virginia   +0.10 +/- 0.32
Oklahoma        +0.03 +/- 0.49    Texas            0.00 +/- 0.26
Texas           -0.15 +/- 0.54    Iowa State      -0.04 +/- 0.22
Kansas          -0.23 +/- 0.60    Kansas State    -0.07 +/- 0.24
TCU             -0.61 +/- 0.60    Kansas          -0.46 +/- 0.30
Iowa State      -0.71 +/- 0.57    Oklahoma State  -0.71 +/- 0.48
Oklahoma State  -1.01 +/- 0.85    TCU             -0.88 +/- 0.26

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          75.13   Baylor          59.06   Iowa State      146.94   Kansas          +14.44   
Iowa State      74.76   Kansas          60.69   Oklahoma        142.12   Baylor          +13.88   
Oklahoma        73.00   West Virginia   60.94   Kansas          135.81   West Virginia   +10.65   
Baylor          72.94   Texas           61.94   Texas Tech      135.35   Texas Tech      +10.53   
Texas Tech      72.94   Texas Tech      62.41   West Virginia   132.53   TCU              +4.19   
West Virginia   71.59   Kansas State    63.00   Baylor          132.00   Oklahoma         +3.88   
TCU             68.00   TCU             63.81   TCU             131.81   Texas            +3.88   
Texas           65.82   Oklahoma State  64.53   Oklahoma State  130.12   Iowa State       +2.59   
Oklahoma State  65.59   Oklahoma        69.12   Kansas State    127.82   Kansas State     +1.82   
Kansas State    64.82   Iowa State      72.18   Texas           127.76   Oklahoma State   +1.06   

Everybody is now in the Top 100.

Schedule Strength
--------------------------
Kansas          82.65 ( 1)
Iowa State      79.64 ( 8)
Oklahoma State  79.39 (11)
Oklahoma        79.18 (12)
West Virginia   78.74 (16)
Kansas State    76.92 (41)
Baylor          76.51 (46)
Texas           75.92 (58)
TCU             74.52 (92)
Texas Tech      74.37 (96)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk

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