Big 12 projection, Round 3

Texas had the chance to solidify its hold on sixth place, but failed to get the projected road
win at TCU.  Meanwhile, Texas Tech also lost, but that was projected and within 3 points of the
projection, so Texas slides back into seventh place.  Meanwhile, Baylor's unexpected road win
in Ames was enough for the Bears to leapfrog the Cyclones into fourth place.  It's really
looking like a three-horse race.

No Big Monday game, what with football having priority.  Three conference games on Tuesday and
two on Wednesday, including Bedlam, Part I, the only projected road win in Round 4.  Kansas State
is projected to get their first conference win, but it won't be easy.  Iowa State at Texas is
projected to be the closest game, with Kansas at West Virginia a close second.  The ugly game of
the Round has TCU at Baylor.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2  Rnd 3
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf            
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  1  Kansas          14.37  14.82  15.01  15.23    3  0  @WV  (Tu)   
#  7  West Virginia   13.69  13.83  13.70  13.81    3  0   KU  (Tu)   WV  by  1.5
#  6  Oklahoma        13.70  13.65  13.57  13.61    2  1  @OSU (We)   OU  by 10.5   projected road win
# 30  Baylor           9.00   8.27   8.71   9.76    2  1   TCU (We)   BU  by 13.9
# 27  Iowa State       9.68   9.74  10.00   8.90    1  2  @UT  (Tu)   
# 42  Texas Tech       7.13   7.83   7.57   7.22    1  2  @KSU (Tu)
# 39  Texas            8.14   7.48   7.80   6.99    1  2   ISU (Tu)   UT  by  0.6
# 40  Kansas State     6.98   6.79   6.52   6.64    0  3   TT  (Tu)   KSU by  3.4
# 90  Oklahoma State   4.48   5.28   4.72   4.74    1  2   OU  (We)
#135  TCU              2.83   2.31   2.40   3.10    1  2  @BU  (We)

Sagarin took honors for best prognostications in Round 3.  Greenfield and Vegas share the
season lead.  Real Time is bringing up the rear.

Predictions                                                                                     Reality  
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------  -------  
               Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Real Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI           
ISU over BU     5.4  9.0  6.0  7.0 10.5  7.5  9.0  6.1  8.4  9.6  9.0  8.5  5.9  7.8  8.5  9.8     -5    
UT  over TCU    5.5  3.0  3.1  3.0  6.0  2.5  6.0  5.1  3.7  4.0 -2.0  5.2  6.2  4.4  8.5  1.4     -1    
KU  over TT     7.5  5.0  6.5  7.5  4.0  7.5  1.0  6.1  5.0  0.7 -2.0  7.0  8.4  6.6  8.4  6.3     10    
OU  over KSU   13.4 15.0 14.7 13.0 16.5 12.5 17.0 12.2 14.1 12.4  7.0 14.4 15.2 17.1 11.1 15.4     10    
WV  over OSU   17.3 14.0 13.5 14.5 17.0 13.0 15.0 17.1 16.2 14.8 11.0 18.0 20.2 22.0 16.4 22.8     17    

Error            1                   1                                                 1
----------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
               Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Real Dolp Whit ESPN 7 OT Crot Aste A-HC Trnd DPPI
               10.4 14.0 11.0 12.0 15.5 12.5 14.0 11.1 13.4 14.6 14.0 13.5 10.9 12.8 13.5 14.8
                6.5  4.0  4.1  4.0  7.0  3.5  7.0  6.1  4.7  5.0  1.0  6.2  7.2  5.4  9.5  2.4
                2.5  5.0  3.5  2.5  6.0  2.5  9.0  3.9  5.0  9.3 12.0  3.0  1.6  3.4  1.6  3.7
                3.4  5.0  4.7  3.0  6.5  2.5  7.0  2.2  4.1  2.4  3.0  4.4  5.2  7.1  1.1  5.4
                0.3  3.0  3.5  2.5  0.0  4.0  2.0  0.1  0.8  2.2  6.0  1.0  3.2  5.0  0.6  5.8

total          23.1 31.0 26.8 24.0 35.0 25.0 39.0 23.4 28.0 33.5 36.0 28.1 28.1 33.7 26.3 32.1
prev           65.9 56.0 58.7 60.5 63.5 59.5 75.0 67.2 58.8 58.5 73.0 61.7 72.6 68.1 74.0 62.2
cumul          89.0 87.0 85.5 84.5 98.5 84.5114.0 90.6 86.8 92.0109.0 89.8100.7101.8100.3 94.3
per gm          5.9  5.8  5.7  5.6  6.6  5.6  7.6  6.0  5.8  6.1  7.3  6.0  6.7  6.8  6.7  6.3

Two road wins were projected in Round 3, and two road wins did occur, just not the two that were
expected.  Texas failed to get the projected win at TCU, while Iowa State unexpectedly fell at
home to Baylor.  Fortunately, the other projected road win, Kansas at Texas Tech, did occur.

Road wins ( 4 out of 15)              Home losses                              Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------     ------------------------------------     --------------------
2 West Virginia   KSU TCU             0 Baylor                                 +2 West Virginia 
1 Baylor          ISU                 0 Kansas                                 +1 Baylor        
1 Kansas          TT                  0 Oklahoma                               +1 Kansas        
0 Iowa State                          0 Oklahoma State                          0 Oklahoma      
0 Kansas State                        0 Texas                                   0 Oklahoma State
0 Oklahoma                            0 West Virginia                           0 Texas         
0 Oklahoma State                      1 Iowa State      BU                     -1 Iowa State    
0 TCU                                 1 Kansas State    WV                     -1 Kansas State  
0 Texas                               1 TCU             WV                     -1 TCU           
0 Texas Tech                          1 Texas Tech      KU                     -1 Texas Tech    

Texas Tech continues to have played every game within 10 points of expectation; easily the
conference's best consistency.  Tuesday features a game between the conference's two most
underrated teams, which is an odd thing to say considering how highly rated they are!

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
---------------------    ----------------------    ------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +2.43    Texas Tech        5.48    Texas Tech      +0.73 +/- 0.31    Iowa State      +0.23 +/- 0.18
Kansas          +1.89    Kansas            8.12    Kansas          +0.67 +/- 0.53    Kansas State    +0.14 +/- 0.16
Oklahoma        +1.62    Kansas State      8.16    Oklahoma State  +0.03 +/- 0.64    Oklahoma        +0.14 +/- 0.20
Texas Tech      +0.89    Oklahoma          8.43    Kansas State    +0.01 +/- 0.51    Oklahoma State  +0.12 +/- 0.24
Iowa State      +0.32    Iowa State        8.74    Texas           -0.08 +/- 0.71    TCU             -0.04 +/- 0.20
Texas           +0.15    TCU               9.54    TCU             -0.27 +/- 0.59    Kansas          -0.06 +/- 0.21
Baylor          +0.13    West Virginia    10.00    Oklahoma        -0.40 +/- 0.57    Baylor          -0.17 +/- 0.22
Kansas State    -0.15    Oklahoma State   10.40    West Virginia   -0.50 +/- 0.60    Texas Tech      -0.21 +/- 0.15
Oklahoma State  -0.21    Texas            11.49    Baylor          -0.86 +/- 0.77    Texas           -0.44 +/- 0.28
TCU             -0.50    Baylor           11.66    Iowa State      -0.89 +/- 0.48    West Virginia   -0.51 +/- 0.21

Prophetic:  "As usual, Schedule Strengths are fairly low but will improve rapidly as conference
play accumulates."  Baylor's strength of schedule ranking improved 87 spots.  Kansas goes up
against the conference's stingiest defense on Tuesday.

Average offense (pts)    Average defense (pts)    Total Points              Scoring Margin (pts)      Schedule Strength
---------------------    ---------------------    ----------------------    ----------------------    ---------------------------
Oklahoma        87.43    West Virginia   63.93    Oklahoma        159.36    West Virginia   +21.53    Texas           78.25 (  4)
West Virginia   85.47    Oklahoma State  64.93    Iowa State      159.13    Kansas          +16.93    Kansas          77.61 ( 10)
Kansas          84.93    Kansas State    65.40    Kansas          152.93    Oklahoma        +15.50    Oklahoma        77.11 ( 18)
Iowa State      84.33    TCU             67.53    West Virginia   149.40    Baylor          +10.43    Iowa State      75.73 ( 35)
Baylor          79.43    Texas Tech      67.57    Baylor          148.43    Iowa State       +9.53    Texas Tech      75.38 ( 43)
Texas Tech      73.64    Kansas          68.00    Texas Tech      141.21    Kansas State     +6.73    Kansas State    74.28 ( 84)
Texas           72.87    Texas           68.33    Texas           141.20    Texas Tech       +6.07    Baylor          72.18 (165)
Kansas State    72.13    Baylor          69.00    TCU             137.60    Oklahoma State   +4.60    West Virginia   71.98 (177)
TCU             70.07    Oklahoma        71.93    Kansas State    137.53    Texas            +4.53    Oklahoma State  71.50 (194)
Oklahoma State  69.53    Iowa State      74.80    Oklahoma State  134.47    TCU              +2.53    TCU             69.93 (259)