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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Texas game
- asteroid
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4 years 3 months ago #24385
by asteroid
Why do the scheduling gods hate me?
Just a few comments so that I can get this posted with a little breathing room
before tip-off.
Seven Overtimes needs to get with the program. They're the only one who
doesn't think that Kansas has played the toughest schedule in the country.
Seven Overtimes has North Carolina with that distinction.
Texas has played three games above expectation by enough to win. Kansas has
played one game below expectation by enough to lose. Those correspond to an
87.5 precent chance of Kansas winning, somewhat more optimistic than the
various prognostications. Sagarin eigenvector has the most optimistic
margin at 10.75 points, while RealTime has the least optimistic margin at
just 1 point. Massey has been the best prognosticator so far this season,
and he has the margin at 10 points.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats UT KU Defensive Stats UT KU
Points/Game 67.1 76.0 Opp Points/Game 60.9 60.7
Avg Score Margin +6.2 +15.3 Opp Effective FG % 45.1 43.4
Assists/Game 14.1 15.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.2 9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.0 39.1 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.9 27.1
Effective FG % 51.6 55.4 Blocks/Game 4.8 4.7
Off Rebound % 27.0 30.4 Steals/Game 5.8 8.2
FTA/FGA 0.214 0.359 Personal Fouls/Gm 17.6 15.0
Turnover % 17.6 17.4
The only category in which Texas leads is blocks per game, and the lead is
tiny.
Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, both conference members:
KU -12 BU at home (-16 neutral)
UT -15 BU on road (-11 neutral)
KU -9 UT on road ( -5 neutral)
KU +14 OU on road (+18 neutral)
UT -10 OU at home (-14 neutral)
KU +28 UT on road (+32 neutral)
Quite a difference there. Fortunately, the average favors Kansas by 9.5 points.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Matt Coleman (guard)
most points Matt Coleman (guard)
most rebounds Jericho Sims (forward)
most assists Matt Coleman (guard)
most steals Matt Coleman (guard)
most blocks Jericho Sims (forward)
most turnovers Courtney Ramey (guard)
most fouls Gerald Liddell (forward)
Put Garrett on Coleman and we should have the game in hand.
13-3 12-4
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Texas
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +7.53 66 59 74 # 2 # 1 # 51 # 81
Sagarin Predictor +7.79 66 59 75.7 # 2 # 1 # 50 # 81
Sagarin Golden Mean +5.79 65 60 # 2 # 1 # 42 # 81
Sagarin Recent Games +8.68 67 58 # 5 # 1 # 74 # 81
Sagarin Eigenvector +10.75 68 57 82
Massey +10.00 69 59 80 # 2 # 1 # 48 # 57
Pomeroy +8.10 64 56 # 2 # 1 # 57 # 95
Greenfield +6.50 68.5 62 # 2 # 1 # 59 # 64
Dunkel +2.50 64 62 # 6 # 48
Vegas (via Dunkel) +7.00 68 61
Dolphin Predictive +7.26 68 60 74.8 # 2 # 1 # 73 # 69
Real Time +1.00 70 69 50.6 # 2 # 1 # 34 # 86
Seven Overtimes +7.00 70 63 64 # 1 # 4 # 54 # 33
DPPI +8.20 68 59.5 78 # 2 # 1 # 67 # 70
ESPN BPI +6.80 74.7 # 2 # 1 # 61 # 67
Colley Matrix +7.38 # 4 # 1 # 43 # 71
NCAA NET # 2 # 52
LRMC # 2 # 1 # 69 # 81
common opponents +9.50
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +7.2 67.3 60.3
scatter 2.4 2.0 3.2
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 25-6.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses. Toughest game would be the
road game with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Duke 66 68 -2.43 +0.43
HOME # 82 NC Greensboro 74 62 +17.37 -5.37
HOME #222 Monmouth-NJ 112 57 +28.58 +26.42
HOME # 65 East Tennessee State(ETS 75 63 +15.96 -3.96
Div2 Chaminade 93 63
NEUT # 31 BYU 71 56 +8.53 +6.47
NEUT # 17 Dayton 90 84 +6.51 -0.51
HOME # 28 Colorado 72 58 +11.20 +2.80
HOME #250 Milwaukee 95 68 +29.68 -2.68
NEUT #223 Kansas City(UMKC) 98 57 +25.38 +15.62
AWAY # 24 Villanova 55 56 +4.41 -5.41
AWAY # 60 Stanford 72 56 +8.32 +7.68
HOME # 5 West Virginia 60 53 +7.47 -0.47
AWAY # 42 Iowa State 79 53 +6.96 +19.04
HOME # 7 Baylor 55 67 +7.80 -19.80
AWAY # 56 Oklahoma 66 52 +8.17 +5.83
AWAY # 50 Texas +7.79 0.757
HOME # 89 Kansas State +18.06 0.965
HOME # 45 Tennessee +13.50 0.887
AWAY # 63 Oklahoma State +8.80 0.721
HOME # 23 Texas Tech +10.82 0.823
HOME # 50 Texas +14.23 0.898
AWAY # 59 TCU +8.28 0.776
AWAY # 5 West Virginia +1.03 0.541
HOME # 56 Oklahoma +14.61 0.925
HOME # 42 Iowa State +13.40 0.879
AWAY # 7 Baylor +1.36 0.555
HOME # 63 Oklahoma State +15.24 0.845
AWAY # 89 Kansas State +11.62 0.879
HOME # 59 TCU +14.72 0.911
AWAY # 23 Texas Tech +4.38 0.646
Here is Texas' season:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #120 Northern Colorado 69 45 +10.27 +13.73
AWAY # 20 Purdue 70 66 -7.30 +11.30
HOME #149 California Baptist 67 54 +12.07 +0.93
HOME #203 Prairie View A&M 70 56 +16.31 -2.31
NEUT # 52 Georgetown 66 82 +0.08 -16.08
NEUT #188 California 62 45 +11.64 +5.36
HOME #285 McNeese State 73 71 +20.59 -18.59
HOME #170 UAB 67 57 +13.29 -3.29
NEUT #142 Texas A&M 60 50 +8.20 +1.80
HOME #171 Central Michigan 87 76 +13.40 -2.40
AWAY # 66 Providence 48 70 -1.46 -20.54
HOME #339 High Point 89 58 +26.33 +4.67
AWAY # 7 Baylor 44 59 -9.65 -5.35
HOME # 56 Oklahoma 62 72 +3.60 -13.60
HOME # 89 Kansas State 64 50 +7.05 +6.95
AWAY # 63 Oklahoma State 76 64 -2.21 +14.21
HOME # 2 Kansas -7.79 0.243
AWAY # 5 West Virginia -9.98 0.157
HOME # 26 LSU +0.16 0.506
AWAY # 59 TCU -2.73 0.400
HOME # 42 Iowa State +2.39 0.583
AWAY # 2 Kansas -14.23 0.102
HOME # 23 Texas Tech -0.19 0.493
HOME # 7 Baylor -3.21 0.371
AWAY # 42 Iowa State -4.05 0.361
HOME # 59 TCU +3.71 0.634
AWAY # 89 Kansas State +0.61 0.525
HOME # 5 West Virginia -3.54 0.361
AWAY # 23 Texas Tech -6.63 0.283
AWAY # 56 Oklahoma -2.84 0.389
HOME # 63 Oklahoma State +4.23 0.611
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk
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- hairyhawk
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4 years 3 months ago #24397
by hairyhawk
It still is impressive to me how accurate the predictions are. Even when the game does not go to form the end result is usually pretty close to your prediction. Please keep up the great work.
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- asteroid
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4 years 3 months ago #24399
by asteroid
Don't tell that to West Virginia!
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