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predictions for Texas game

  • asteroid
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1 month 1 week ago #24385 by asteroid
Why do the scheduling gods hate me?

Just a few comments so that I can get this posted with a little breathing room
before tip-off.

Seven Overtimes needs to get with the program.  They're the only one who
doesn't think that Kansas has played the toughest schedule in the country.
Seven Overtimes has North Carolina with that distinction.

Texas has played three games above expectation by enough to win.  Kansas has
played one game below expectation by enough to lose.  Those correspond to an
87.5 precent chance of Kansas winning, somewhat more optimistic than the
various prognostications.  Sagarin eigenvector has the most optimistic
margin at 10.75 points, while RealTime has the least optimistic margin at
just 1 point.  Massey has been the best prognosticator so far this season,
and he has the margin at 10 points.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     UT      KU       Defensive Stats     UT      KU
Points/Game         67.1    76.0     Opp Points/Game     60.9    60.7
Avg Score Margin    +6.2   +15.3     Opp Effective FG %  45.1    43.4
Assists/Game        14.1    15.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.2     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.0    39.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.9    27.1
Effective FG %      51.6    55.4     Blocks/Game          4.8     4.7
Off Rebound %       27.0    30.4     Steals/Game          5.8     8.2
FTA/FGA            0.214   0.359     Personal Fouls/Gm   17.6    15.0
Turnover %          17.6    17.4

The only category in which Texas leads is blocks per game, and the lead is
tiny.

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, both conference members:

KU  -12 BU  at home (-16 neutral)
UT  -15 BU  on road (-11 neutral)
KU   -9 UT  on road ( -5 neutral)

KU  +14 OU  on road (+18 neutral)
UT  -10 OU  at home (-14 neutral)
KU  +28 UT  on road (+32 neutral)

Quite a difference there.  Fortunately, the average favors Kansas by 9.5 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Matt Coleman (guard)
most points        Matt Coleman (guard)
most rebounds      Jericho Sims (forward)
most assists       Matt Coleman (guard)
most steals        Matt Coleman (guard)
most blocks        Jericho Sims (forward)
most turnovers     Courtney Ramey (guard)
most fouls         Gerald Liddell (forward)

Put Garrett on Coleman and we should have the game in hand.

                                                          13-3           12-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Texas
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +7.53   66   59       74       #  2   #  1    # 51   # 81 
Sagarin Predictor       +7.79   66   59       75.7     #  2   #  1    # 50   # 81 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +5.79   65   60                #  2   #  1    # 42   # 81 
Sagarin Recent Games    +8.68   67   58                #  5   #  1    # 74   # 81 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +10.75   68   57       82  
Massey                 +10.00   69   59       80       #  2   #  1    # 48   # 57
Pomeroy                 +8.10   64   56                #  2   #  1    # 57   # 95
Greenfield              +6.50   68.5 62                #  2   #  1    # 59   # 64
Dunkel                  +2.50   64   62                #  6           # 48                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.00   68   61                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +7.26   68   60       74.8     #  2   #  1    # 73   # 69
Real Time               +1.00   70   69       50.6     #  2   #  1    # 34   # 86 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   70   63       64       #  1   #  4    # 54   # 33
DPPI                    +8.20   68   59.5     78       #  2   #  1    # 67   # 70
ESPN BPI                +6.80                 74.7     #  2   #  1    # 61   # 67
Colley Matrix           +7.38                          #  4   #  1    # 43   # 71
NCAA NET                                               #  2           # 52
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    # 69   # 81
common opponents        +9.50                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.2    67.3 60.3
scatter                  2.4     2.0  3.2  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains at 25-6.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the
road game with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.43    +0.43
HOME   # 82 NC Greensboro               74  62   +17.37    -5.37
HOME   #222 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.58   +26.42
HOME   # 65 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.96    -3.96
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 31 BYU                         71  56    +8.53    +6.47
NEUT   # 17 Dayton                      90  84    +6.51    -0.51
HOME   # 28 Colorado                    72  58   +11.20    +2.80
HOME   #250 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.68    -2.68
NEUT   #223 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.38   +15.62
AWAY   # 24 Villanova                   55  56    +4.41    -5.41
AWAY   # 60 Stanford                    72  56    +8.32    +7.68
HOME   #  5 West Virginia               60  53    +7.47    -0.47
AWAY   # 42 Iowa State                  79  53    +6.96   +19.04
HOME   #  7 Baylor                      55  67    +7.80   -19.80
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma                    66  52    +8.17    +5.83
AWAY   # 50 Texas                                 +7.79             0.757
HOME   # 89 Kansas State                         +18.06             0.965
HOME   # 45 Tennessee                            +13.50             0.887
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma State                        +8.80             0.721
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                           +10.82             0.823
HOME   # 50 Texas                                +14.23             0.898
AWAY   # 59 TCU                                   +8.28             0.776
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                         +1.03             0.541
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma                             +14.61             0.925
HOME   # 42 Iowa State                           +13.40             0.879
AWAY   #  7 Baylor                                +1.36             0.555
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma State                       +15.24             0.845
AWAY   # 89 Kansas State                         +11.62             0.879
HOME   # 59 TCU                                  +14.72             0.911
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                            +4.38             0.646

Here is Texas' season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #120 Northern Colorado           69  45   +10.27   +13.73
AWAY   # 20 Purdue                      70  66    -7.30   +11.30
HOME   #149 California Baptist          67  54   +12.07    +0.93
HOME   #203 Prairie View A&M            70  56   +16.31    -2.31
NEUT   # 52 Georgetown                  66  82    +0.08   -16.08
NEUT   #188 California                  62  45   +11.64    +5.36
HOME   #285 McNeese State               73  71   +20.59   -18.59
HOME   #170 UAB                         67  57   +13.29    -3.29
NEUT   #142 Texas A&M                   60  50    +8.20    +1.80
HOME   #171 Central Michigan            87  76   +13.40    -2.40
AWAY   # 66 Providence                  48  70    -1.46   -20.54
HOME   #339 High Point                  89  58   +26.33    +4.67
AWAY   #  7 Baylor                      44  59    -9.65    -5.35
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma                    62  72    +3.60   -13.60
HOME   # 89 Kansas State                64  50    +7.05    +6.95
AWAY   # 63 Oklahoma State              76  64    -2.21   +14.21
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -7.79             0.243
AWAY   #  5 West Virginia                         -9.98             0.157
HOME   # 26 LSU                                   +0.16             0.506
AWAY   # 59 TCU                                   -2.73             0.400
HOME   # 42 Iowa State                            +2.39             0.583
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -14.23             0.102
HOME   # 23 Texas Tech                            -0.19             0.493
HOME   #  7 Baylor                                -3.21             0.371
AWAY   # 42 Iowa State                            -4.05             0.361
HOME   # 59 TCU                                   +3.71             0.634
AWAY   # 89 Kansas State                          +0.61             0.525
HOME   #  5 West Virginia                         -3.54             0.361
AWAY   # 23 Texas Tech                            -6.63             0.283
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma                              -2.84             0.389
HOME   # 63 Oklahoma State                        +4.23             0.611
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, porthawk, newtonhawk

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1 month 1 week ago #24397 by hairyhawk
It still is impressive to me how accurate the predictions are. Even when the game does not go to form the end result is usually pretty close to your prediction. Please keep up the great work.
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  • asteroid
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1 month 1 week ago #24399 by asteroid
Don't tell that to West Virginia!

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