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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
projected Big 12 standings, Round 4
- asteroid
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5 years 11 months ago #24380
by asteroid
Although both Oklahoma and Iowa State lost, the Sooners' performance was a bit more
below expectation than that of the Cyclones, and that was enough for the two teams
to swap positions in the projected standings. Texas with the road win in Stillwater,
which had been a projected loss, was enough for the Longhorns and Cowboys to swap
positions as well. No other changes in the order, though we are now looking at a
tie for the championship with 14 wins apiece.
Init. Rnd 1 Rnd 2 Rnd 3 Rnd 4
Pred Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Proj. Conf
Rank Big XII Team Wins Wins Wins Wins Wins Record Next Game Prediction
---- -------------- ----- ----- ----- ----- ----- ------ --------- -----------
# 2 Kansas 14.45 14.60 14.97 13.72 14.14 3 1 @UT (Sa) KU by 8.0 road win
# 7 Baylor 10.99 11.45 12.05 13.33 13.60 4 0 @OSU (Sa) BU by 4.4 road win
# 5 West Virginia 10.73 10.79 11.92 12.22 12.64 3 1 @KSU (Sa) WVU by 7.5 road win
# 22 Texas Tech 9.33 10.29 9.45 9.01 9.55 2 2 ISU (Sa) TTU by 5.6
# 56 TCU 7.46 7.73 8.21 8.83 8.37 3 1 @OU (Sa)
# 41 Iowa State 8.35 8.00 7.45 7.86 7.61 1 3 @TTU (Sa)
# 53 Oklahoma 7.19 7.31 8.46 7.91 7.50 2 2 TCU (Sa) OU by 3.4
# 51 Texas 7.25 6.83 5.71 6.47 7.45 2 2 KU (Sa)
# 63 Oklahoma State 8.95 7.89 7.30 6.57 5.68 0 4 BU (Sa)
# 91 Kansas State 5.30 5.11 4.48 4.08 3.46 0 4 WVU (Sa)
Massey took honors for best prognostications in Round 4, but just barely, and he's our first
repeat winner of the season. He also retains the season lead.
Predictions
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
WVU over TCU 9.0 11.0 9.1 7.5 11.5 8.5 8.4 13.4 11.6 1.0 16.0 9.4 10.0 15.6
BU over ISU 8.4 12.0 12.1 8.5 13.0 10.0 9.6 20.9 13.1 13.0 18.0 10.5 9.4 6.8
KU over OU 7.3 7.0 7.2 6.5 10.5 6.5 7.1 5.3 7.4 15.0 -2.0 11.5 6.3 7.6
OSU over UT 4.0 3.0 3.6 3.5 5.0 3.0 3.7 0.6 4.7 1.0 9.0 5.4 5.0 6.8
TTU over KSU 3.2 4.0 3.5 3.5 -9.0 3.5 2.3 3.9 3.1 1.0 -2.0 4.8 2.2 3.3
Reality Error
------- --------2-----------------------------------1-----------1-------------------------
Saga Mass Pome Gree Dunk Vega Dolp Coll ESPN 7 OT Real S+Pe S+-1 Trnd
32 23.0 21.0 22.9 24.5 20.5 23.5 23.6 18.6 20.4 31.0 16.0 22.6 22.0 16.4
13 4.6 1.0 0.9 4.5 0.0 3.0 3.4 7.9 0.1 0.0 5.0 2.5 3.6 6.2
14 6.7 7.0 6.8 7.5 3.5 7.5 6.9 8.7 6.6 1.0 16.0 2.5 7.7 6.4
-12 16.0 15.0 15.6 15.5 17.0 15.0 15.7 12.6 16.7 13.0 21.0 17.4 17.0 18.8
14 10.8 10.0 10.5 10.5 23.0 10.5 11.7 10.1 10.9 13.0 16.0 9.2 11.8 10.7
total 61.1 54.0 56.7 62.5 64.0 59.5 61.3 57.9 54.7 58.0 74.0 54.2 62.1 58.5
previous 151.1 144.0 148.1 155.0 168.5 152.0 154.4 152.9 55.2 149.0 168.0 149.4 153.9 146.4
cumulative 212.2 198.0 204.8 217.5 232.5 211.5 215.7 210.8 109.9 207.0 242.0 203.6 216.0 204.9
per game 10.6 9.9 10.2 10.9 11.6 10.6 10.8 10.5 10.5 10.4 12.1 10.2 10.8 10.2
Three road wins in Round 4, with three more projected for Round 5.
Road wins ( 9 out of 20) Home losses Differential (RW-HL)
---------------------------------------- ------------------------------------ --------------------
2 Baylor TTU KU 0 Baylor +2 Baylor
2 Kansas ISU OU 0 TCU +1 Kansas
1 Oklahoma UT 0 West Virginia +1 TCU
1 TCU KSU 1 Iowa State KU +1 West Virginia
1 Texas OSU 1 Kansas BU 0 Oklahoma
1 Texas Tech KSU 1 Oklahoma KU 0 Texas
1 West Virginia OSU 1 Texas OU 0 Texas Tech
0 Iowa State 1 Texas Tech BU -1 Iowa State
0 Kansas State 2 Kansas State TCU TTU -2 Kansas State
0 Oklahoma State 2 Oklahoma State WVU UT -2 Oklahoma State
Performance (points) Inconsistency (points)
--------------------- ----------------------
Kansas +3.12 Baylor 8.26
West Virginia +2.23 Kansas State 8.46
Baylor +1.87 West Virginia 8.57
TCU +0.33 Oklahoma 8.91
Texas Tech +0.07 TCU 10.66
Oklahoma State -0.26 Texas 11.04
Oklahoma -0.85 Kansas 11.34
Texas -1.33 Iowa State 11.65
Iowa State -1.50 Texas Tech 11.93
Kansas State -1.79 Oklahoma State 17.97
Trend (points per game) Mental toughness
------------------------------ ------------------------------
West Virginia +0.84 +/- 0.43 Baylor +0.22 +/- 0.16
Baylor +0.57 +/- 0.49 West Virginia +0.16 +/- 0.27
Texas Tech -0.05 +/- 0.67 Oklahoma +0.13 +/- 0.22
Kansas -0.23 +/- 0.70 Texas Tech +0.04 +/- 0.28
Texas -0.26 +/- 0.62 Texas 0.00 +/- 0.29
Kansas State -0.34 +/- 0.47 Iowa State -0.02 +/- 0.23
TCU -0.34 +/- 0.65 Kansas State -0.27 +/- 0.20
Oklahoma -0.37 +/- 0.49 Kansas -0.44 +/- 0.32
Iowa State -0.59 +/- 0.63 Oklahoma State -0.71 +/- 0.51
Oklahoma State -1.14 +/- 0.96 TCU -0.87 +/- 0.28
Average offense (pts) Average defense (pts) Total Points Scoring Margin (pts)
--------------------- --------------------- ---------------------- ----------------------
Iowa State 76.06 Baylor 58.60 Iowa State 148.38 Kansas +14.53
Kansas 75.60 West Virginia 59.63 Oklahoma 141.88 Baylor +14.07
Texas Tech 73.13 Kansas 61.07 Kansas 136.67 West Virginia +12.06
Baylor 72.67 Texas 61.56 Texas Tech 136.06 Texas Tech +10.19
Oklahoma 72.50 Kansas State 62.56 West Virginia 131.31 TCU +5.53
West Virginia 71.69 TCU 62.67 Baylor 131.27 Texas +4.94
TCU 68.20 Texas Tech 62.94 TCU 130.87 Iowa State +3.75
Texas 66.50 Oklahoma State 63.75 Oklahoma State 129.31 Oklahoma +3.13
Oklahoma State 65.56 Oklahoma 69.38 Texas 128.06 Oklahoma State +1.81
Kansas State 63.75 Iowa State 72.31 Kansas State 126.31 Kansas State +1.19
To put things into perspective, the #2 strength of schedule belongs to Seton Hall, whose
numerical rating is 80.11, and #3 is Michigan, whose numerical rating is 80.00; you'd
have to go down to #29 Clemson to find a schedule strength rating of 77.30, which is
2.81 units lower than #2 Seton Hall, who is 2.81 units lower than Kansas. It's also
worth noting that if you look at the latest Pomeroy rankings, Kansas has played #2 Duke,
#3 Baylor, #4 West Virginia, and #5 Dayton. He's got Kansas' strength of schedule with
a numerical value of 13.34, compared to #2 Seton Hall way down at 9.98. The NCAA
Tournament isn't as tough.
Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas 82.92 ( 1)
Oklahoma 79.47 ( 5)
Oklahoma State 79.10 ( 8)
Iowa State 78.94 ( 12)
West Virginia 78.86 ( 14)
Baylor 76.18 ( 52)
Kansas State 76.06 ( 54)
Texas 75.11 ( 80)
TCU 73.78 (120)
Texas Tech 73.42 (136)
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, Socalhawk, porthawk, KMT
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- NotOstertag
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5 years 11 months ago #24381
by NotOstertag
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
I've been tracking the "Bill Self Conference Standings Calculation" where you get no credit for home wins and can only lose points for home losses, while positive points can only be gained for road wins. By that calculation, if you win out at home and win 4 road games you'd be +4.
With that scale, Baylor is currently +2 (2 road wins, no home losses).
KU, WVU and TCU are all +1, with KU having the only home loss.
Tech, OU, and Texas are all even.
ISU is -1 (1 home loss, no road wins)
OSU and KSU are both 0-4 which translates to -2.
This weekend, Baylor, KU, WVU, TCU and ISU are all on the road and can pick up points. Therefore, beyond Baylor losing at OSU, we can't make up any ground.
Meanwhile, Tech, OU, OSU, Texas and KSU are all at home and need to win in order not to fall further behind.
Therefore, if Asteroid's predictions pan out, TCU will fall back to even, and be 2 points behind KU and WVU who will still be a point down to Baylor.
With that scale, Baylor is currently +2 (2 road wins, no home losses).
KU, WVU and TCU are all +1, with KU having the only home loss.
Tech, OU, and Texas are all even.
ISU is -1 (1 home loss, no road wins)
OSU and KSU are both 0-4 which translates to -2.
This weekend, Baylor, KU, WVU, TCU and ISU are all on the road and can pick up points. Therefore, beyond Baylor losing at OSU, we can't make up any ground.
Meanwhile, Tech, OU, OSU, Texas and KSU are all at home and need to win in order not to fall further behind.
Therefore, if Asteroid's predictions pan out, TCU will fall back to even, and be 2 points behind KU and WVU who will still be a point down to Baylor.
"When I was a freshman, I remember Coach Naismith telling us how important it was to play good defense." - Mitch Lightfoot
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