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predictions for Oklahoma game

  • asteroid
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2 weeks 19 hours ago #24349 by asteroid
Hmm...

Duke, loss, Moss injured
Villanova, loss, Garrett injured
Baylor, loss, Dotson injured

I thought we had some depth this season, but with Lightfoot redshirting and
Wilson out of commission for three months, there has been less margin for
error, and now we know just how much less.  We can't really afford to lose
any of the main players in the rotation.  At least against top opponents.
Does Oklahoma fall into that category?

We went to Ames, projected to win by 6 points, and wound up playing almost
20 points above expectation.  Perhaps that was because Iowa State has the
most porous defense in the Big 12.  Well, Oklahoma has the second-most
porous defense in the conference.  Only 3 points better than Iowa State.
That bodes well for Kansas.  Then again, neither Garrett nor Dotson are
100 percent.  With Garrett hobbled by sore ankles, his lateral movement
may be compromised and less able to defend as strongly as he can when
healthy.  And with Dotson's hip pointer, he may be slowed down from his
usual lightning-fast speed, and more reluctant to penetrate for fear of
contact and pain.  It will be interesting to see how this all plays out.

The league is sufficiently well-balanced that road games will tend to
project as more difficult than some home games.  The Iowa State margin
was projected to be less than the West Virginia margin, yet the game in
Ames was so much easier than the one at home against the Mountaineers.
Similarly, the game in Norman is projected to be more difficult than the
one at home against the Bears, yet somehow I get the feeling it'll turn
out to be so much easier.  One reason is the common opponents.  Yes, the
Jayhawks played above expectation against Stanford and Iowa State, while
the Sooners played below expectation against both those opponents, leading
to a predicted 35 point margin for Kansas, the most optimistic of all the
prognostications.  Seven Overtimes is the next-highest at 15 points.
Meanwhile, RealTime has the Jayhawks losing by 2 points.  Then again,
RealTime uses a rather enormous home court advantage.  Yes, the home
court advantage is larger in the Big 12 than the national average, but not
that much larger.  It's easy to see why I don't think RealTime is ready
for Prime Time.

Oklahoma has played four games above expectation by enough to win today's
game (but only on the road or on neutral courts, interestingly), while
Kansas has played below expectation by enough to lose only once, and that
was the most recent game against Baylor (at home, interestingly).  Those
correspond to a 16 percent chance of losing.

About that Baylor game.  Yes, it came as a bit of a surprise.  It's not
often you lose when you have an 85 percent chance of winning (about once
in six or seven games).  But when you're projected to win every game, but
collectively only 14 of 18, you've got to expect to lose 4 games somewhere
along the way.  Sure, the road games in Waco and Morgantown stand out as
the most likely possibilities, but there are two others that should be
expected, and the road game with Texas Tech is the next-most likely
candidate, but Kansas still has a 2 out of 3 chance of winning that game.

What's really odd is that despite losing, Kansas actually ROSE in some of
the computer rankings such as ESPN's BPI.  The Jayhawks had been consistently
lower in the BPI than in Sagarin, Massey, or Pomeroy, for example, and the
BPI is just now catching up to reality.

With Oklahoma giving up an average of 69 points per game, we may actually
get out of the 60s.  Did you notice that only Iowa State scored more than
68 points this past Saturday?  Anyway, the average margin among the various
prognostications is 8.7 points.  My gut tells me it'll be more than that,
and then we get the two bottom teams in the conference before the break for
the SEC Challenge.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     OU      KU       Defensive Stats     OU      KU
Points/Game         74.0    76.7     Opp Points/Game     69.5    61.3
Avg Score Margin    +4.5   +15.4     Opp Effective FG %  47.6    43.9
Assists/Game        11.4    15.6     Off Rebounds/Gm      6.9     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.5    38.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     27.5    26.6
Effective FG %      48.9    55.7     Blocks/Game          3.7     4.8
Off Rebound %       20.4    30.5     Steals/Game          6.4     8.5
FTA/FGA            0.338   0.367     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.1    15.3
Turnover %          13.5    17.6

Common Opponents
================
There are two common opponents, namely Stanford and Iowa State:

KU  +16 Sta on road (+20 neutral)
OU  -19 Sta neutral (-19 neutral)
KU  +35 OU  on road (+39 neutral)

KU  +26 ISU on road (+30 neutral)
OU  -13 ISU on road ( -9 neutral)
KU  +35 OU  on road (+39 neutral)

Interesting that both represent the same 35 point margin for Kansas.
One gets the feeling that this game should be a lot easier than many
of the projected margins are suggesting.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Austin Reaves (guard)
most points        Kristian Doolittle (forward)
most rebounds      Kristian Doolittle (forward)
most assists       Jamal Bieniemy (guard)
most steals        De'Vion Harman (guard)
most blocks        Brady Manek (forward)
most turnovers     Austin Reaves (guard)
most fouls         Austin Reaves (guard)

                                                          12-3           11-4
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Oklahoma
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +6.38   73   67       71       #  2   #  1    # 45   # 11 
Sagarin Predictor       +7.33   74   66       75.6     #  2   #  1    # 49   # 11 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.81   72   68                #  2   #  1    # 37   # 11 
Sagarin Recent Games    +6.96   73   66                #  7   #  1    # 57   # 11 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +5.75   73   67       70  
Massey                  +7.00   76   69       74       #  4   #  1    # 25   # 14
Pomeroy                 +7.19   71   63                #  2   #  1    # 48   # 12
Greenfield              +6.50   72   65.5              #  2   #  1    # 53   # 24
Dunkel                 +10.50   76   65                #  6           # 39                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   73   67                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +7.07   75   68       73.0     #  2   #  1    # 65   # 25
Real Time               -2.00   69   71       45.5     #  4   #  1    # 29   # 36 
Seven Overtimes        +15.00   78   63       77       #  1   #  5    #146   # 43
DPPI                   +10.40   74   63       88.5     #  2   #  1    # 63   # 18
ESPN BPI                +7.40                 75.1     #  2   #  1    # 66   # 19
Colley Matrix           +5.32                          #  4   #  1    # 29   # 29
NCAA NET                                               #  5           # 46
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    # 53   # 25
common opponents       +35.00                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.7    73.5 66.3
scatter                  7.6     2.3  2.4  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is back down to 25-6.
Amazingly, there are still no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the
road game with Baylor, followed closely by the road game with West Virginia.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -3.14    +1.14
HOME   # 72 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.61    -4.61
HOME   #222 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.06   +26.94
HOME   # 66 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.92    -3.92
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 31 BYU                         71  56    +8.65    +6.35
NEUT   # 20 Dayton                      90  84    +6.65    -0.65
HOME   # 27 Colorado                    72  58   +11.25    +2.75
HOME   #238 Milwaukee                   95  68   +28.71    -1.71
NEUT   #216 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +24.54   +16.46
AWAY   # 21 Villanova                   55  56    +3.84    -4.84
AWAY   # 61 Stanford                    72  56    +8.62    +7.38
HOME   #  8 West Virginia               60  53    +7.91    -0.91
AWAY   # 40 Iowa State                  79  53    +6.39   +19.61
HOME   #  6 Baylor                      55  67    +7.80   -19.80
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma                              +7.32             0.756
AWAY   # 58 Texas                                 +8.27             0.770
HOME   # 85 Kansas State                         +17.35             0.952
HOME   # 41 Tennessee                            +13.00             0.873
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State                        +7.78             0.694
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                           +10.90             0.817
HOME   # 58 Texas                                +14.71             0.906
AWAY   # 48 TCU                                   +7.27             0.753
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         +1.47             0.560
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma                             +13.76             0.904
HOME   # 40 Iowa State                           +12.83             0.858
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                +1.36             0.553
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State                       +14.22             0.823
AWAY   # 85 Kansas State                         +10.91             0.853
HOME   # 48 TCU                                  +13.71             0.902
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                            +4.46             0.644

Here is Oklahoma's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #185 UTSA                        85  67   +14.96    +3.04
NEUT   # 30 Minnesota                   71  62    -2.11   +11.11
AWAY   # 67 Oregon State                77  69    -1.05    +9.05
HOME   #162 William & Mary              75  70   +13.30    -8.30
HOME   #351 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     91  64   +33.12    -6.12
NEUT   # 61 Stanford                    54  73    +1.30   -20.30
NEUT   # 55 Missouri                    77  66    +0.68   +10.32
AWAY   #110 North Texas                 82  80    +3.33    -1.33
AWAY   # 29 Wichita State               75  80    -5.46    +0.46
AWAY   # 38 Creighton                   73  83    -4.29    -5.71
HOME   #124 Central Florida(UCF)        53  52   +10.81    -9.81
HOME   #233 UTRGV                       91  72   +18.06    +0.94
HOME   # 85 Kansas State                66  61    +6.81    -1.81
AWAY   # 58 Texas                       72  62    -2.27   +12.27
AWAY   # 40 Iowa State                  68  81    -4.15    -8.85
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -7.32             0.244
HOME   # 48 TCU                                   +3.17             0.634
AWAY   #  6 Baylor                                -9.18             0.148
HOME   # 60 Mississippi State                     +4.49             0.671
AWAY   # 85 Kansas State                          +0.37             0.516
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State                        +3.68             0.600
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                            -6.08             0.288
HOME   #  8 West Virginia                         -2.63             0.376
HOME   # 40 Iowa State                            +2.29             0.584
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -13.76             0.096
HOME   #  6 Baylor                                -2.74             0.378
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State                        -2.76             0.424
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                            +0.36             0.513
AWAY   #  8 West Virginia                         -9.07             0.138
HOME   # 58 Texas                                 +4.17             0.663
AWAY   # 48 TCU                                   -3.27             0.362
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, JRhawk, Bayhawk, Socalhawk, porthawk

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