predictions for Baylor game

Let's get something out of the way, right off the bat:

I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS.

Number 3 versus Number 4, right?  Well, that's what the human pollsters
think.  The computers mostly say something else.  Only Dunkel, Colley,
and ESPN's BPI have Kansas that low or lower, but Dunkel and Colley
haven't updated their rankings recently.  I think Dunkel does so only
weekly, and Colley's numbers are the same as for the Round 2 games, so
those results haven't been taken into account.  As for Baylor, only
Seven Overtimes has the Bears that high.  Dunkel has them as low as
Number 20, while the LRMC has them at Number 18.  In particular,
Sagarin Predictor has them at Number 14, which gives Kansas a rather
comfortable 8.9 point margin, more than for next week's game in Norman
against a considerably weaker Oklahoma team.  The home court advantage
is clearly at work here.

A home win is especially important for the Jayhawks given that Baylor
is a contender.  The lead in the projected conference race is just under
3 games for the Jayhawks, but with an 85 percent chance of winning, a
loss would mean that the Bears would gain 1.7 wins, plus whatever the
revised ratings would cause.

Baylor is the Big 12's most consistent team.  Other than their opener
against Central Arkansas, Baylor has played all their games within 9 points
of expectation.  Indeed, that game against Central Arkansas is the only
time they've played above expectation by enough to overcome a 8.9 point
predicted margin.  And Kansas has yet to play more than 6 points below
expectation, so losing would set a new season record for futility.

With tip-off less than an hour away, let's tie this summary off right now
and get it posted.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     BU      KU       Defensive Stats     BU      KU
Points/Game         74.2    78.4     Opp Points/Game     58.4    60.8
Avg Score Margin   +15.8   +17.8     Opp Effective FG %  43.1    43.2
Assists/Game        14.0    16.2     Off Rebounds/Gm     11.9     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   39.5    38.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.6    26.8
Effective FG %      50.1    56.6     Blocks/Game          5.0     4.4
Off Rebound %       37.0    30.5     Steals/Game          8.5     8.9
FTA/FGA            0.314   0.373     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.6    15.7
Turnover %          15.3    17.5

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Villanova:

KU   -1 Vil on road ( +3 neutral)
BUU  +9 Vil neutral ( +9 neutral)
KU   -2 BU  at home ( -6 neutral)

Recall we played much of that game without the services of Garrett.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       MaCio Teague (guard)
most points        Jared Butler (guard)
most rebounds      Freddie Gillespie (forward)
most assists       Davion Mitchell (guard)
most steals        Mark Vital (guard)
most blocks        Freddie Gillespie (forward)
most turnovers     Jared Butler (guard)
most fouls         Davion Mitchell (guard)

Forward Jonathan Tchatchoua is ineligible for the season.

                                                          12-2           12-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Baylor
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +7.87   69   61       75       #  2   #  1    #  5   #112 
Sagarin Predictor       +8.92   69   60       84.9     #  2   #  1    # 14   #112 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.54   69   61                #  2   #  1    #  6   #112 
Sagarin Recent Games    +6.64   68   62                #  1   #  1    #  5   #112 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +14.05   72   58       87  
Massey                 +10.00   72   62       81       #  1   #  1    #  7   # 38
Pomeroy                 +8.15   67   59                #  2   #  1    #  9   #113
Greenfield              +8.00   70.5 62.5              #  2   #  1    # 10   # 23
Dunkel                  +5.00   68.5 63.5              #  6           # 20                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +7.50   69   61.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +9.29   71   62       79.8     #  2   #  1    # 12   # 20
Real Time              +15.00   77   62       81.6     #  2   #  1    #  9   #100 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   69   68       53       #  1   #  6    #  4   # 88
DPPI                   +12.30   77   64       93.7     #  2   #  1    # 14   #110
ESPN BPI                +9.30                 80.7     #  3   #  3    # 14   # 65
Colley Matrix           +7.61                          #  5   #  1    # 15   #125
NCAA NET                                               #  1           #  5
LRMC                                                   #  2   #  1    # 18   #111
common opponents        -2.00                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.0    70.6 61.9
scatter                  4.1     3.1  2.4  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 26-5, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with West Virginia, followed closely by the road game with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.60    +0.60
HOME   # 85 NC Greensboro               74  62   +17.77    -5.77
HOME   #216 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.73   +27.27
HOME   # 59 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.35    -3.35
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 36 BYU                         71  56    +9.31    +5.69
NEUT   # 18 Dayton                      90  84    +7.02    -1.02
HOME   # 34 Colorado                    72  58   +12.48    +1.52
HOME   #247 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.56    -2.56
NEUT   #228 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +25.25   +15.75
AWAY   # 24 Villanova                   55  56    +4.46    -5.46
AWAY   # 64 Stanford                    72  56    +9.49    +6.51
HOME   # 11 West Virginia               60  53    +8.50    -1.50
AWAY   # 45 Iowa State                  79  53    +7.07   +18.93
HOME   # 14 Baylor                                +8.91             0.849
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                              +7.06             0.766
AWAY   # 62 Texas                                 +9.38             0.817
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                         +17.60             0.964
HOME   # 33 Tennessee                            +12.40             0.878
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +7.59             0.690
HOME   # 26 Texas Tech                           +11.37             0.836
HOME   # 62 Texas                                +15.88             0.937
AWAY   # 55 TCU                                   +8.15             0.795
AWAY   # 11 West Virginia                         +2.00             0.587
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                             +13.56             0.918
HOME   # 45 Iowa State                           +13.57             0.884
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                +2.41             0.610
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State                       +14.09             0.822
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                         +11.10             0.872
HOME   # 55 TCU                                  +14.65             0.931
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                            +4.87             0.662

Here is Baylor's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #326 Central Arkansas           105  61   +30.19   +13.81
NEUT   # 53 Washington                  64  67    +5.36    -8.36
HOME   #136 Texas State                 72  63   +16.65    -7.65
NEUT   #199 Ohio                        76  53   +18.20    +4.80
AWAY   #147 Coastal Carolina            77  65   +10.97    +1.03
NEUT   # 24 Villanova                   87  78    +2.05    +6.95
HOME   #350 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     78  46   +37.23    -5.23
HOME   #  6 Arizona                     63  58    +2.16    +2.84
HOME   # 17 Butler                      53  52    +4.39    -3.39
NEUT   #287 Tennessee-Martin            91  63   +23.19    +4.81
HOME   #330 Jackson State               83  57   +30.67    -4.67
HOME   # 62 Texas                       59  44   +10.22    +4.78
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                  57  52    -0.79    +5.79
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                                -8.91             0.151
HOME   # 45 Iowa State                            +7.91             0.788
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +1.93             0.554
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                              +7.90             0.839
AWAY   # 27 Florida                               -0.65             0.471
AWAY   # 45 Iowa State                            +1.41             0.557
HOME   # 55 TCU                                   +8.99             0.864
AWAY   # 83 Kansas State                          +5.44             0.751
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +8.43             0.723
AWAY   # 62 Texas                                 +3.72             0.664
HOME   # 11 West Virginia                         +2.84             0.654
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                              +1.40             0.570
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -2.41             0.390
HOME   # 83 Kansas State                         +11.94             0.931
AWAY   # 55 TCU                                   +2.49             0.619
HOME   # 26 Texas Tech                            +5.71             0.712
AWAY   # 11 West Virginia                         -3.66             0.305