projected Big 12 standings, Round 2

Oklahoma and TCU both earned road wins over Texas and Kansas State, respectively,
though the Sooners' performance was sufficiently better than TCU's performance to
leapfrog not only losers Iowa State and Oklahoma State, but TCU as well.  So
Oklahoma jumps from eighth to fifth in the projected standings, while TCU jumps
from seventh to sixth, while Iowa State slid from fifth to seventh, and Oklahoma
State slid from sixth to eighth.  No other changes in the projected standings.
The top four teams will be battling each other this Saturday, as will the bottom
two teams.

                      Init.  Rnd 1  Rnd 2
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.60  14.97    2  0   BU  (Sa)   KU  by  8.9
# 14  Baylor          10.99  11.45  12.05    2  0  @KU  (Sa)   
# 10  West Virginia   10.73  10.79  11.92    1  1   TTU (Sa)   WVU by  5.8
# 25  Texas Tech       9.33  10.29   9.45    1  1  @WVU (Sa)   
# 49  Oklahoma         7.19   7.31   8.46    2  0  @ISU (Sa)   
# 55  TCU              7.46   7.73   8.21    2  0   OSU (Sa)   TCU by  2.6
# 44  Iowa State       8.35   8.00   7.45    0  2   OU  (Sa)   ISU by  3.7
# 50  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.89   7.30    0  2  @TCU (Sa)   
# 66  Texas            7.25   6.83   5.71    0  2   KSU (Sa)   UT  by  4.8
# 82  Kansas State     5.30   5.11   4.48    0  2  @UT  (Sa)   

Colley took honors for best prognostications in Round 2, primarily on the basis of expecting a big
win for Kansas over Iowa State.  My trend analysis has the season lead.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over ISU     5.9   8.0   7.9   5.5   3.5   6.5   6.2  15.5   5.1  12.0  14.0  10.8   4.9   7.6
UT  over OU      3.3   2.0   1.7   3.5   4.5   2.0   2.9   2.9   4.6   6.0  10.0   2.0   4.3  -0.3
TTU over BU      1.7   2.0   1.0   3.5   0.0   3.0   2.5  -6.0   2.6  -4.0   4.0   0.9   2.7   1.7
WVU over OSU     0.8   3.0   1.7   0.0   6.0   1.0   0.5   5.4  -1.2   7.0  -1.0   1.7  -0.2   5.4
KSU over TCU     0.3   1.0  -0.2  -1.0   4.0   1.0   1.1  -2.3   2.1  -11.   4.0  -2.8   1.3   1.3

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  --------1-----------------------------------1-------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
          26    20.1  18.0  18.1  20.5  22.5  19.5  19.8  10.5  20.9  14.0  12.0  15.2  21.1  18.4
         -10    13.3  12.0  11.7  13.5  14.5  12.0  12.9  12.9  14.6  16.0  20.0  12.0  14.3   9.7
          -5     6.7   7.0   6.0   8.5   5.0   8.0   7.5   1.0   7.6   1.0   9.0   5.9   7.7   6.7
          14    13.2  11.0  12.3  14.0   8.0  13.0  13.5   8.6  15.2   7.0  15.0  12.3  14.2   8.6
          -2     2.3   3.0   1.8   1.0   6.0   3.0   3.1   0.3   4.1   9.0   6.0   0.8   3.3   3.3

total           55.6  51.0  49.9  57.5  56.0  55.5  56.8  33.3  62.4  47.0  62.0  46.2  60.6  46.7
previous        40.6  40.0  42.9  42.5  47.5  41.5  41.9  59.2  41.0  63.0  54.0  46.6  41.4  41.1
cumulative      96.2  91.0  92.8 100.0 103.5  97.0  98.7  92.5 103.4 110.0 116.0  92.8 102.0  87.8
per game         9.6   9.1   9.3  10.0  10.4   9.7   9.9   9.3  10.3  11.0  11.6   9.3  10.2   8.8

All the home teams won in Round 1, while all the road teams won in Round 2.  All the
home teams are favored in Round 3.

Road wins ( 5 out of 10)                   Home losses                            Differential (RW-HL)
----------------------------------------   ------------------------------------   --------------------
1 Baylor         TTU                       0 Baylor                               +1 Baylor        
1 Kansas         ISU                       0 Kansas                               +1 Kansas        
1 Oklahoma       UT                        0 Oklahoma                             +1 Oklahoma      
1 TCU            KSU                       0 TCU                                  +1 TCU           
1 West Virginia  OSU                       0 West Virginia                        +1 West Virginia 
0 Iowa State                               1 Iowa State     KU                    -1 Iowa State    
0 Kansas State                             1 Kansas State   TCU                   -1 Kansas State  
0 Oklahoma State                           1 Oklahoma State WVU                   -1 Oklahoma State
0 Texas                                    1 Texas          OU                    -1 Texas         
0 Texas Tech                               1 Texas Tech     BU                    -1 Texas Tech    

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +4.33    Baylor            6.59    
West Virginia   +1.35    West Virginia     7.69    
TCU             +1.31    Kansas State      9.15    
Baylor          +1.15    Oklahoma          9.22    
Texas Tech      +0.01    TCU               9.64    
Oklahoma State  -0.05    Kansas           10.18    
Oklahoma        -0.93    Texas            10.39    
Kansas State    -1.67    Iowa State       12.39    
Texas           -1.76    Texas Tech       12.96    
Iowa State      -1.99    Oklahoma State   18.98    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.61 +/- 0.50    Oklahoma        +0.24 +/- 0.24
Kansas          +0.35 +/- 0.78    West Virginia   +0.21 +/- 0.23
TCU             +0.19 +/- 0.74    Texas Tech      +0.09 +/- 0.36
Baylor          +0.07 +/- 0.51    Baylor          +0.04 +/- 0.16
Kansas State    -0.03 +/- 0.63    Iowa State      +0.01 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma        -0.12 +/- 0.64    Texas           -0.16 +/- 0.29
Texas Tech      -0.34 +/- 0.89    Kansas State    -0.18 +/- 0.25
Oklahoma State  -0.93 +/- 1.28    Kansas          -0.37 +/- 0.30
Iowa State      -1.13 +/- 0.79    Oklahoma State  -0.64 +/- 0.57
Texas           -1.23 +/- 0.62    TCU             -0.72 +/- 0.40

The win over Iowa State was enough for Kansas to displace Iowa State as the conference's
most offensive team (in the good sense of the word).

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Kansas          77.92   Baylor          59.15   Iowa State      150.14   Kansas          +16.62   
Iowa State      77.21   West Virginia   60.50   Oklahoma        143.07   Baylor          +14.31   
Oklahoma        74.29   Kansas          61.31   Kansas          139.23   West Virginia   +11.21   
Texas Tech      73.93   Kansas State    61.43   Texas Tech      136.93   Texas Tech      +10.93   
Baylor          73.46   Texas           62.21   TCU             133.92   TCU              +7.92   
West Virginia   71.71   TCU             63.00   Baylor          132.62   Oklahoma         +5.50   
TCU             70.92   Texas Tech      63.00   West Virginia   132.21   Iowa State       +4.29   
Oklahoma State  67.50   Oklahoma State  63.71   Oklahoma State  131.21   Oklahoma State   +3.79   
Texas           66.00   Oklahoma        68.79   Texas           128.21   Texas            +3.79   
Kansas State    64.79   Iowa State      72.93   Kansas State    126.21   Kansas State     +3.36   

Baylor's strength of schedule should make it into Top 100 following Saturday's tilt in Lawrence.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          81.56 (  1)
Oklahoma State  78.59 (  8)
West Virginia   78.24 ( 14)
Oklahoma        77.18 ( 28)
Iowa State      77.09 ( 30)
Kansas State    74.21 (109)
Texas           73.91 (114)
Baylor          73.87 (117)
TCU             72.38 (183)
Texas Tech      71.37 (231)