predictions for Iowa State game

Weaker opponent, but it's a road game, so tha predicted margin is actually
smaller for today's game than it was for Saturday's conference opener.  At
least according to Sagarin Predictor.  The Kansas City common opponent gives
us the most optimistic prediction, which favors Kansas by 23 points.  The
most pessimistic is Dunkel, who favors Kansas by just 3.5 points.  Maybe he
knows something about Hilton Magic.  The scatter is a fair bit larger for
this game than the most recent preceding games, possibly due to Iowa State's
inconsistency, which is reflected in that loss to Florida A&M, which was
almost 29 points below expectation for the Cyclones.  Then again, Haliburton
didn't play in that game, which probably explains a lot.  But at the same
time, it means Iowa State is basically a one-trick pony.  Control Haliburton,
and you should have the game under control.

Iowa State has the most porous defense in the Big 12, by a fair margin, but
they also have the most prolific offense.  They play the highest scoring
games of any Big 12 team, so maybe we'll get out of the 60s for today's game.
The average of the prognostications says that the Cyclones will score 68.5
points, but Kansas has been keeping most of its opponents in the 50s.  If
they can do that in Hilton, while scoring more easily against that porous
Cyclone defense, we could Kansas scoring in the 70s, earning a comfortable
road win.

Speaking of which, all the home teams won in Round 1, and so far, all the
road teams have won in Round 2, though there are still two more games to be
played in Round 2.

Because my trend analysis did so well in Round 1, except for the Texas Tech
blowout over Oklahoma State, you may be wondering what it says about today's
game.  Kansas by 7.6 points.

Iowa State has played 4 games above expectation by enough to win today.
Meanwhile, Kansas has not played any games below expectation by enough to
lose today.  Those average to an 85 percent probability of victory for the
Jayhawks.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     ISU     KU       Defensive Stats     ISU     KU
Points/Game         80.2    78.3     Opp Points/Game     71.4    61.5
Avg Score Margin    +8.8   +16.8     Opp Effective FG %  49.8    43.4
Assists/Game        16.8    16.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.3     9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.2    39.1     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.6    26.9
Effective FG %      52.4    56.2     Blocks/Game          5.2     4.6
Off Rebound %       27.4    30.6     Steals/Game          8.4     8.8
FTA/FGA            0.295   0.378     Personal Fouls/Gm   14.6    15.9
Turnover %          13.8    17.6

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Kansas City:

KU  +41 KC  neutral (+41 neutral)
ISU +18 KC  at home (+14 neutral)
KU  +23 ISU on road (+27 neutral)

That's a pretty favorable comparison.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most points        Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most rebounds      Michael Jacobson (forward)
most assists       Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most steals        Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most blocks        George Conditt IV (forward)
most turnovers     Tyrese Haliburton (guard)
most fouls         George Conditt IV (forward)

The key to the game would seem to be Haliburton.  Control him, you control the
game.  Look for Garrett to be defending him.  Of course, he didn't play in the
Florida A&M debacle, so one wonders whether he's 100 percent.  Then again,
Garrett might not be 100 percent either, which might be why he's fouling so
much lately.

                                                          11-2            7-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Iowa State
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.11   76   67       78       #  2   #  1    # 59   # 76 
Sagarin Predictor       +5.91   75   69       71.0     #  3   #  1    # 44   # 76 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.20   75   68                #  2   #  1    # 51   # 76 
Sagarin Recent Games   +13.14   78   65                #  2   #  1    # 97   # 76 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +11.27   77   66       82  
Massey                  +8.00   80   72       75       #  2   #  1    # 87   # 38
Pomeroy                 +7.93   76   68                #  2   #  1    # 54   # 79
Greenfield              +5.00   75.5 70.5              #  2   #  1    # 47   # 35
Dunkel                  +3.50   76   70                #  6           # 39                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   75   66                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +6.21   77   71       70.1     #  2   #  1    # 62   # 48
Real Time              +14.00   84   70       80.2     #  1   #  1    #140   #142 
Seven Overtimes        +12.00   79   67       88       #  1   #  9    #111   #150
DPPI                   +10.30   80.5 70       82.8     #  1   #  1    # 53   # 73
ESPN BPI                +5.10                 67.8     #  3   #  5    # 47   # 55
Colley Matrix          +15.50                          #  5   #  1    #123   #147
NCAA NET                                               #  1           # 84
common opponents       +23.00                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +9.6    77.4 68.5
scatter                  4.9     2.6  2.1  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains 25-6, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with Baylor, followed closely by the road game with West Virginia.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -3.27    +1.27
HOME   # 80 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.63    -4.63
HOME   #231 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.06   +26.94
HOME   # 66 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.45    -3.45
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 35 BYU                         71  56    +8.49    +6.51
NEUT   # 18 Dayton                      90  84    +6.43    -0.43
HOME   # 36 Colorado                    72  58   +11.93    +2.07
HOME   #251 Milwaukee                   95  68   +28.99    -1.99
NEUT   #221 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +24.30   +16.70
AWAY   # 24 Villanova                   55  56    +3.65    -4.65
AWAY   # 71 Stanford                    72  56    +9.31    +6.69
HOME   # 13 West Virginia               60  53    +8.07    -1.07
AWAY   # 44 Iowa State                            +5.91             0.710
HOME   # 11 Baylor                                +7.89             0.829
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma                              +7.75             0.800
AWAY   # 54 Texas                                 +7.72             0.776
HOME   # 84 Kansas State                         +16.90             0.962
HOME   # 32 Tennessee                            +11.57             0.870
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State                        +6.97             0.676
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                           +10.25             0.813
HOME   # 54 Texas                                +14.20             0.919
AWAY   # 52 TCU                                   +7.56             0.778
AWAY   # 13 West Virginia                         +1.59             0.574
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma                             +14.23             0.939
HOME   # 44 Iowa State                           +12.39             0.877
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                                +1.41             0.567
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State                       +13.45             0.810
AWAY   # 84 Kansas State                         +10.42             0.863
HOME   # 52 TCU                                  +14.04             0.923
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                            +3.77             0.628

Here is Iowa State's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #353 MVSU(Miss. Valley St.)     110  74   +37.34    -1.34
AWAY   # 70 Oregon State                74  80    +0.11    -6.11
HOME   #175 Northern Illinois           70  52   +15.02    +2.98
HOME   #271 Southern Miss               73  45   +20.80    +7.20
NEUT   # 15 Michigan                    76  83    -4.15    -2.85
NEUT   # 49 Alabama                    104  89    +1.08   +13.92
NEUT   # 10 Seton Hall                  76  84    -4.54    -3.46
HOME   #221 Kansas City(UMKC)           79  61   +18.39    -0.39
HOME   # 10 Seton Hall                  76  66    -1.30   +11.30
HOME   # 27 Iowa                        68  84    +1.61   -17.61
HOME   #255 Fort Wayne(PFW)             89  59   +19.94   +10.06
HOME   #333 Florida A&M                 68  70   +26.73   -28.73
AWAY   # 52 TCU                         79  81    -1.59    -0.41
HOME   #  3 Kansas                                -5.91             0.290
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma                              +5.08             0.687
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                                -7.74             0.211
AWAY   # 25 Texas Tech                            -5.38             0.334
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State                        +4.30             0.606
AWAY   # 12 Auburn                                -7.68             0.250
HOME   # 11 Baylor                                -1.26             0.448
AWAY   # 54 Texas                                 -1.43             0.450
AWAY   # 13 West Virginia                         -7.56             0.220
HOME   # 84 Kansas State                          +7.75             0.766
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma                              -1.40             0.447
HOME   # 54 Texas                                 +5.05             0.673
AWAY   #  3 Kansas                               -12.39             0.123
HOME   # 25 Texas Tech                            +1.10             0.535
HOME   # 52 TCU                                   +4.89             0.672
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State                        -2.18             0.446
HOME   # 13 West Virginia                         -1.08             0.456
AWAY   # 84 Kansas State                          +1.27             0.547