projected Big 12 standings, Round 1

So, Oklahoma State came into conference play with an enormous inconsistency rating,
making Texas Tech wonder whether they'd be playing the good Cowboy team or the bad
Cowboy team.  They got the good Cowboy team in the first half, and the VERY bad
Cowboy team in the second half.  The bad loss by Oklahoma State dropped them behind
Iowa State in the projected standings, even though the Cyclones also lost.  Meanwhile,
Texas' 44-point offensive output against Baylor was pitiful enough for the Longhorns
to drop behind Oklahoma in the projected standings.  But they can regain eighth place
by beating the Sooners in Austin, which is projected to happen on Wednesday.  Although
there are no other changes in the projected standings, it is interesting to note that
West Virginia actually GAINED in the number of projected wins, despite losing.  Yes,
they only had a 15 percent chance of winning Saturday's game, so they dropped 0.15 of
a win by losing that game, but their 2.1 point above expectation performance, coupled
with the dismal performance by Oklahoma State, who happens to be their next opponent,
earned them enough extra projected fractional wins to offset that decrease.

                      Init.  Rnd 1
Pred                  Proj.  Proj.   Conf                          
Rank  Big XII Team    Wins   Wins   Record  Next Game   Prediction 
----  --------------  -----  -----  ------  ---------   -----------
#  2  Kansas          14.45  14.60    1  0  @ISU (We)   KU  by  6.1  road win
# 13  Baylor          10.99  11.45    1  0  @TTU (Tu)   
# 16  West Virginia   10.73  10.79    0  1  @OSU (Mo)   WVU by  0.9  road win
# 22  Texas Tech       9.33  10.29    1  0   BU  (Tu)   TTU by  1.8
# 41  Iowa State       8.35   8.00    0  1   KU  (We)   
# 47  Oklahoma State   8.95   7.89    0  1   WVU (Mo)   
# 52  TCU              7.46   7.73    1  0  @KSU (Tu)   
# 56  Oklahoma         7.19   7.31    1  0  @UT  (We)   
# 59  Texas            7.25   6.83    0  1   OU  (We)   UT  by  2.9 
# 83  Kansas State     5.30   5.11    0  1   TCU (Tu)   KSU by  0.4 

Massey took honors for best prognostications in Round 1.  My trend analysis did really well,
except for the Texas Tech blowout of Oklahoma State.  Whitlock never got on board for this
season, so he's been dropped from the competition.  The heading S+Pe is the Sagarin rating
adjusted for performance, previously labelled "Aste".  The heading S+-1 is the Sagarin
rating adjusted by plus or minus 1 point because the home court advantage in the Big 12 is
larger than he's using for Division I as a whole, previously labelled "A-HC".  Why just
1 point?  Mainly because I haven't been able to find the file where I did the home court
advantage analysis for last season.

Predictions                                                                                       
--------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
KU  over WVU     9.4  10.0   9.1   9.5  12.5   9.5   9.2   2.2  11.2   1.0   2.0  12.0  10.4   5.9
BU  over UT      8.5   9.0   9.3   8.5   5.0   9.5   8.3   8.5   9.4   7.0   8.0  11.2   9.5  16.7
OU  over KSU     5.8   8.0   7.1   7.0   3.0   6.5   5.4  13.6   5.9   2.0  11.0   6.9   6.8   5.4
TT  over OSU     4.2   7.0   3.8   5.5   9.5   5.0   3.9  -2.6   5.3  -3.0   6.0   1.5   5.2  -2.3
TCU over ISU     1.9   2.0   3.8   4.0   6.5   4.0   3.5   3.7   2.6  10.0   9.0   4.4   2.9   2.6

       Reality  Error                                                                            
       -------  --------1-------------------------------------------------------------------------
                Saga  Mass  Pome  Gree  Dunk  Vega  Dolp  Coll  ESPN  7 OT  Real  S+Pe  S+-1  Trnd
           7     2.4   3.0   2.1   2.5   5.5   2.5   2.2   4.8   4.2   6.0   5.0   5.0   3.4   1.1
          15     6.5   6.0   5.7   6.5  10.0   5.5   6.7   6.5   5.6   8.0   7.0   3.8   5.5   1.7
           5     0.8   3.0   2.1   2.0   2.0   1.5   0.4   8.6   0.9   3.0   6.0   1.9   1.8   0.4
          35    30.8  28.0  31.2  29.5  25.5  30.0  31.1  37.6  29.7  38.0  29.0  33.5  29.8  37.3
           2     0.1   0.0   1.8   2.0   4.5   2.0   1.5   1.7   0.6   8.0   7.0   2.4   0.9   0.6

total           40.6  40.0  42.9  42.5  47.5  41.5  41.9  59.2  41.0  63.0  54.0  46.6  41.4  41.1
previous
cumulative      40.6  40.0  42.9  42.5  47.5  41.5  41.9  59.2  41.0  63.0  54.0  46.6  41.4  41.1
per game         8.1   8.0   8.6   8.5   9.5   8.3   8.4  11.8   8.2  12.6  10.8   9.3   8.3   8.2

No road wins in Round 1, so I'll omit the road wins listing.

Oklahoma State's inconsistency actually INCREASED.  Yikes.

Performance (points)     Inconsistency (points)    
---------------------    ----------------------    
Kansas          +3.43    Baylor            6.85    
West Virginia   +1.42    West Virginia     7.22    
TCU             +1.29    Oklahoma          8.89    
Baylor          +0.88    Kansas State      9.37    
Oklahoma State  +0.58    Kansas            9.50    
Texas Tech      -0.01    TCU              10.06    
Oklahoma        -0.97    Texas            10.75    
Iowa State      -1.20    Iowa State       11.68    
Kansas State    -1.99    Texas Tech       13.19    
Texas           -2.04    Oklahoma State   19.39    

Trend (points per game)           Mental toughness
------------------------------    ------------------------------
West Virginia   +0.39 +/- 0.55    Oklahoma        +0.19 +/- 0.24
TCU             +0.34 +/- 0.88    Texas Tech      +0.15 +/- 0.38
Kansas State    +0.05 +/- 0.73    West Virginia   +0.15 +/- 0.22
Baylor          -0.07 +/- 0.60    Iowa State      +0.12 +/- 0.25
Texas Tech      -0.15 +/- 1.02    Baylor          -0.02 +/- 0.18
Kansas          -0.28 +/- 0.83    Texas           -0.09 +/- 0.31
Oklahoma        -0.59 +/- 0.66    Kansas State    -0.19 +/- 0.26
Oklahoma State  -0.71 +/- 1.49    Kansas          -0.46 +/- 0.26
Iowa State      -0.73 +/- 0.88    Oklahoma State  -0.55 +/- 0.59
Texas           -1.18 +/- 0.75    TCU             -0.80 +/- 0.44

Average offense (pts)   Average defense (pts)   Total Points             Scoring Margin (pts)     
---------------------   ---------------------   ----------------------   ----------------------   
Iowa State      79.23   Baylor          59.92   Iowa State      151.54   Kansas          +15.50   
Kansas          77.67   Texas           61.31   Oklahoma        143.77   Baylor          +14.75   
Texas Tech      75.77   Kansas State    61.46   Kansas          139.83   Texas Tech      +12.46   
Baylor          74.67   West Virginia   62.15   Texas Tech      139.08   West Virginia   +10.69   
Oklahoma        74.31   Kansas          62.17   TCU             135.42   TCU              +8.08   
West Virginia   72.85   Texas Tech      63.31   West Virginia   135.00   Iowa State       +6.92   
TCU             71.75   TCU             63.67   Baylor          134.58   Oklahoma State   +5.46   
Oklahoma State  69.69   Oklahoma State  64.23   Oklahoma State  133.92   Texas            +5.15   
Texas           66.46   Oklahoma        69.46   Texas           127.77   Oklahoma         +4.85   
Kansas State    65.54   Iowa State      72.31   Kansas State    127.00   Kansas State     +4.08   

Kansas has played the toughest schedule in all of Division I.

Schedule Strength
---------------------------
Kansas          81.22 (  1)
Oklahoma State  78.03 ( 16)
West Virginia   77.45 ( 21)
Oklahoma        76.61 ( 39)
Iowa State      75.32 ( 69)
Texas           72.71 (166)
Baylor          72.35 (185)
Kansas State    72.09 (196)
TCU             71.74 (206)
Texas Tech      70.11 (287)