predictions for West Virginia game

And so it begins.

If you believe RealTimeRPI, West Virginia is the #1 team in the land.  Sagarin,
Massey, Colley, Dolphin, Seven Overtimes, and the NCAA NET all have West Virginia
in the Top 10.  Meanwhile, at the opposite end of the spectrum, Dunkel has the
Mountaineers way down at #63.  Go figure.

So, is this exactly what ESPN wanted, a Top 10 college basketball matchup, to
boost subscriptions to ESPN+?  Hey, if you wanted to do that, you'd put the
LSU vs. Clemson championship game on ESPN+.  Today's game is the sort of contest
you'd expect to see on the main cable channel.  Then again, broadcast schedules
were drawn up long before West Virginia had asserted itself as a college
basketball power.

All the usual prognosticators have favored Kansas to win today's game.  Most
optimistic is Dunkel, who has Kansas by 12.5 points.  Least optimistic is
Seven Overtimes, who has Kansas by a solitary point.  RealTimeRPI, who likes to
use a big home court advantage, favors Kansas by 2 points over the higher-ranked
Mountaineers.  The average is 7.8 points for Kansas.

West Virginia has been quite consistent, having played all its games within
12 points of expectation.  They have a positive trend, tied with TCU for best
in the conference, and the most positive mental toughness rating, having played
11 points above expectation against the #5 Buckeyes.  They've played two true
road games against Top 100 competition, and finished 2019 with that big test
against Ohio State.  Everything says they're ready for today's Allen Field
House experience.  It's that consistency that makes it harder for them to
overcome the predicted margin, but they've done it three times so far this
season, out of twelve games, for a 25 percent chance of winning.  Meanwhile,
Kansas has yet to play more than 5 points below expectation, so that's a
0 percent chance of losing, right?  Well, there's a first time for everything,
but those two probabilites average to 12.5 percent, roughly consistent with
the Sagarin Predictor probability of losing at 13.8 percent.

The Jayhawks have no trend, but that negative mental toughness rating would
seem to hurt when playing top competition.  The thing is, being favored by
9 points doesn't make West Virginia look all that impressive, so the math
actually gives Kansas 1.2 points from that negative mental toughness rating!
Did I mention that it's a peculiar statistic?

It's our second consecutive game playing an opponent with an 11-1 record.
Let's hope for a similar outcome.  At the very least, it'll provide yet
another boost to Kansas' strength of schedule rankings.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     WVU     KU       Defensive Stats     WVU     KU
Points/Game         74.8    80.0     Opp Points/Game     62.0    62.3
Avg Score Margin   +12.8   +17.7     Opp Effective FG %  40.5    44.2
Assists/Game        13.7    16.6     Off Rebounds/Gm     13.2     9.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   42.2    39.9     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.5    27.6
Effective FG %      48.4    57.1     Blocks/Game          4.5     4.4
Off Rebound %       37.1    31.1     Steals/Game          7.8     8.7
FTA/FGA            0.395   0.359     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.2    15.6
Turnover %          16.6    17.5

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Emmitt Matthews Jr. (forward)
most points        Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most rebounds      Derek Culer (forward)
most assists       Miles McBride (guard)
most steals        Jermaine Haley (guard)
most blocks        Oscar Tshiebwe (forward)
most turnovers     Derek Culer (forward)
most fouls         Gabe Osabuohien (forward)

                                                          10-2           11-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      West Virginia
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +7.97   71   63       75       #  2   #  2    #  7   # 53 
Sagarin Predictor       +9.36   72   62       86.2     #  2   #  2    # 15   # 53 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.35   71   63                #  2   #  2    # 10   # 53 
Sagarin Recent Games    +6.76   70   64                #  1   #  2    #  7   # 53 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +6.86   70   63       72  
Massey                 +10.00   77   67       82       #  1   #  1    #  8   # 22
Pomeroy                 +9.13   73   64                #  2   #  7    # 18   # 46
Greenfield              +9.50   75   66                #  1   #  1    # 27   # 28
Dunkel                 +12.50   75   63                #  8           # 63                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.50   75   66                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +9.19   74   65       78.9     #  2   #  1    # 10   # 13
Real Time               +2.00   77   75       55.9     #  3   #  1    #  1   #  4 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   70   69       51       #  1   # 11    #  8   # 33
DPPI                   +10.30   76   66       90.2     #  2   #  1    # 11   # 14
ESPN BPI               +11.20                 83.3     #  3   #  7    # 25   # 57
Colley Matrix           +2.16                          #  5   #  1    #  2   #  8
NCAA NET                                               #  2           #  9
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +7.8    73.3 65.4
scatter                  3.4     2.6  3.4  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains 25-6, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with Baylor, followed closely by the road game with West Virginia.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.35    +0.35
HOME   # 73 NC Greensboro               74  62   +16.16    -4.16
HOME   #244 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.92   +26.08
HOME   # 64 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +15.35    -3.35
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 39 BYU                         71  56    +8.75    +6.25
NEUT   # 20 Dayton                      90  84    +6.42    -0.42
HOME   # 31 Colorado                    72  58   +11.21    +2.79
HOME   #247 Milwaukee                   95  68   +29.10    -2.10
NEUT   #221 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +24.57   +16.43
AWAY   # 21 Villanova                   55  56    +3.66    -4.66
AWAY   # 68 Stanford                    72  56    +9.37    +6.63
HOME   # 15 West Virginia                         +9.36             0.862
AWAY   # 43 Iowa State                            +6.01             0.708
HOME   # 14 Baylor                                +9.12             0.861
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma                              +7.93             0.799
AWAY   # 56 Texas                                 +7.91             0.777
HOME   # 82 Kansas State                         +16.97             0.960
HOME   # 34 Tennessee                            +11.90             0.876
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +5.49             0.647
HOME   # 29 Texas Tech                           +11.00             0.860
HOME   # 56 Texas                                +14.37             0.917
AWAY   # 51 TCU                                   +7.31             0.766
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         +2.90             0.632
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma                             +14.39             0.936
HOME   # 43 Iowa State                           +12.47             0.872
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                +2.66             0.624
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State                       +11.95             0.795
AWAY   # 82 Kansas State                         +10.51             0.861
HOME   # 51 TCU                                  +13.77             0.914
AWAY   # 29 Texas Tech                            +4.54             0.672

Here is West Virginia's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #113 Akron                       94  84   +13.97    -3.97
AWAY   # 85 Pittsburgh                  68  53    +4.82   +10.18
HOME   #129 Northern Colorado           69  61   +15.50    -7.50
HOME   #230 Boston U.                   69  44   +22.17    +2.83
NEUT   # 93 Northern Iowa               60  55    +8.95    -3.95
NEUT   # 44 Wichita State               75  63    +3.14    +8.86
HOME   # 90 Rhode Island                86  81   +11.71    -6.71
AWAY   # 65 St. John's                  68  70    +2.77    -4.77
HOME   #187 Austin Peay                 84  53   +19.01   +11.99
HOME   #257 Nicholls State              83  57   +23.32    +2.68
AWAY   #223 Youngstown State            75  64   +15.24    -4.24
NEUT   #  5 Ohio State                  67  59    -3.14   +11.14
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                                -9.36             0.138
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State                        -0.64             0.482
HOME   # 29 Texas Tech                            +4.87             0.701
HOME   # 51 TCU                                   +7.64             0.798
AWAY   # 82 Kansas State                          +4.38             0.693
HOME   # 56 Texas                                 +8.24             0.808
HOME   # 59 Missouri                              +8.29             0.811
AWAY   # 29 Texas Tech                            -1.59             0.432
HOME   # 82 Kansas State                         +10.84             0.894
HOME   # 43 Iowa State                            +6.34             0.734
AWAY   # 58 Oklahoma                              +1.80             0.584
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -2.90             0.368
AWAY   # 14 Baylor                                -3.47             0.316
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +5.82             0.662
AWAY   # 51 TCU                                   +1.18             0.551
AWAY   # 56 Texas                                 +1.78             0.575
HOME   # 58 Oklahoma                              +8.26             0.836
AWAY   # 43 Iowa State                            -0.12             0.495
HOME   # 14 Baylor                                +2.99             0.660