predictions for Stanford game

Same game time as for the Villanova game, except this one is on the
left coast rather than the right coast, so I have an extra three hours
to prepare the summary.  Still on the early side, but at least I don't
have to wait until 10 minutes before tip-off for Dunkel to get his act
together.

Stanford is a tough read.  Glossy record, but that's against what
Sagarin has as the #326 schedule.  That's out of 353 Division I teams.
The Cardinal have played exactly one Top 25 team, and just two Top 50
teams, and both were on neutral courts, scheduled for them by some
tournament organizer, meaning that the Stanford scheduler really gave
them an easy path to that glossy record.  Against #50 Oklahoma, they
played their best game of the season, about 20 points above expectation.
Their only loss was to #21 Butler, by a single point, which suggests
they're a decent team, but one that hasn't been thoroughly tested yet.
It appears they've played only one true road game, and it was against
a bottom-feeder, but that doesn't matter, as today's game is on their
home court.

Predictions are mostly favorable for Kansas, but there are multiple
exceptions.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis favors Stanford by about
3 points.  Real Time, which predicted a Villanova win thanks to a
hefty home court advantage, has also picked Stanford by 3 points.
The most favorable prediction for Kansas is Sagarin Predictor, which
has Kansas by almost 9 points.  The average is just shy of 4 points,
with a scatter nearly as large.

Villanova played some high-scoring games, so the predicted totals were
way out of whack with reality.  That halftime score had us looking at
final scores in the 40s!   But there was a brief flurry of scoring early
in the second half that got the total into triple figures.  By contrast,
Stanford plays low-scoring games, averaging 131 total points.  Does
anybody think we'll see a high-scoring game to compensate for the
Villanova affair?  I'm going to guess it won't be a high-scoring game,
as Pomeroy has Stanford with the #19 defense (as one might expect from
a Jerod Haase coached team) and Kansas with the #3 defense.  Stanford
should have an even harder time scoring, given the #125 offense.

Aside from a couple of cupcakes, Kansas has played within 7 points of
expectation.  Take away Stanford's two outliers, and the Cardinal have
played within 9 points of expectation.  Pretty consistent, both teams.
The Jayhawks' most above-expectation result came against a cupcake,
while Stanford's most above-expectation result came against a top tier
opponent, so the Cardinal have a positive mental toughness rating,
while Kansas' value is negative.  Trends are not statistically
significant for either team.

In the NCAA's latest NET rankings, Kansas slipped to #4 after the
Villanova loss.  Stanford is #11, it's most favorable power ranking.
Sagarin Recent Games is the next-most favorable at #23, one spot
ahead of Massey's #24.  Kansas retained its #1 status with Greenfield,
Dolphin, and Seven Overtimes.  Greenfield and Dolphin both have Kansas
with the #1 schedule as well.  Today's game ought to solidify that
ranking.

Anybody else think we don't have to worry about Kansas closing out
today's game, in contrast to last weekend?

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Stan    KU       Defensive Stats     Stan    KU
Points/Game         73.7    80.8     Opp Points/Game     57.7    62.9
Avg Score Margin   +16.0   +17.9     Opp Effective FG %  44.2    44.2
Assists/Game        13.4    17.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      6.8     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   36.2    39.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.6    27.9
Effective FG %      56.3    57.4     Blocks/Game          3.9     4.7
Off Rebound %       23.6    30.2     Steals/Game          8.0     8.7
FTA/FGA            0.348   0.364     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.8    15.4
Turnover %          19.3    16.8

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, though this game will create one for the
conference matchups with Oklahoma.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Daejon Davis (guard)
most points        Oscar Da Silva (forward)
most rebounds      Oscar Da Silva (forward)
most assists       Daejon Davis (guard)
most steals        Daejon Davis (guard) / Tyrell Terry (guard)
most blocks        Spencer Jones (forward)
most turnovers     Daejon Davis (guard)
most fouls         Daejon Davis (guard)

Forward Kodye Pugh is expected to be out for the season with a knee injury.

                                                           9-2           11-1
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Stanford
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +6.15   69   63       71       #  2   #  7    # 50   #326 
Sagarin Predictor       +8.75   70   62       82.1     #  2   #  7    # 68   #326 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +7.07   70   62                #  2   #  7    # 58   #326 
Sagarin Recent Games    +1.67   67   65                #  3   #  7    # 23   #326 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -2.86   65   67       40  
Massey                  +4.00   71   67       61       #  6   #  5    # 24   #119
Pomeroy                 +5.81   67   62                #  3   # 10    # 54   #334
Greenfield              +6.50   72   65                #  1   #  1    # 60   #138
Dunkel                  +3.00   65   62                #  8           # 53                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +6.50   71.5 65                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +5.33   70   64       68.2     #  1   #  1    # 48   #136
Real Time               -3.00   74   77       43.2     #  3   #  2    # 29   #210 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   69   68       50       #  1   # 13    # 30   #210
DPPI                    +6.80   74   67       75.2     #  3   #  1    # 33   #287
ESPN BPI                +4.80                 67.5     #  4   # 16    # 74   #305
Colley Matrix           +1.41                          #  5   #  2    # 23   #196
NCAA NET                                               #  4           # 11
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.9    69.6 65.4
scatter                  3.5     2.9  4.0  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record remains 25-6, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with Baylor.  Conference game order has been updated to reflect this season.
Previous summaries still had last season's conference game order.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.19    +0.19
HOME   # 60 NC Greensboro               74  62   +14.77    -2.77
HOME   #249 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.31   +26.69
HOME   # 58 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +14.34    -2.34
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 39 BYU                         71  56    +8.27    +6.73
NEUT   # 28 Dayton                      90  84    +7.22    -1.22
HOME   # 44 Colorado                    72  58   +12.36    +1.64
HOME   #238 Milwaukee                   95  68   +27.92    -0.92
NEUT   #213 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +23.45   +17.55
AWAY   # 18 Villanova                   55  56    +2.58    -3.58
AWAY   # 68 Stanford                              +8.75             0.821
HOME   # 20 West Virginia                         +9.46             0.815
AWAY   # 38 Iowa State                            +4.95             0.680
HOME   # 10 Baylor                                +8.03             0.776
AWAY   # 50 Oklahoma                              +7.02             0.747
AWAY   # 53 Texas                                 +7.44             0.759
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                         +16.12             0.936
HOME   # 37 Tennessee                            +11.37             0.859
AWAY   # 46 Oklahoma State                        +6.07             0.717
HOME   # 22 Texas Tech                            +9.74             0.822
HOME   # 53 Texas                                +13.90             0.906
AWAY   # 71 TCU                                   +8.97             0.802
AWAY   # 20 West Virginia                         +3.00             0.612
HOME   # 50 Oklahoma                             +13.48             0.899
HOME   # 38 Iowa State                           +11.41             0.860
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                                +1.57             0.559
HOME   # 46 Oklahoma State                       +12.53             0.882
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                          +9.66             0.820
HOME   # 71 TCU                                  +15.43             0.928
AWAY   # 22 Texas Tech                            +3.28             0.622

Here is Stanford's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #172 Montana                     73  62   +12.05    -1.05
HOME   #266 CS Fullerton                70  54   +17.16    -1.16
HOME   #289 Long Beach State            86  58   +19.53    +8.47
HOME   #153 Santa Clara                 82  64   +10.82    +7.18
HOME   #350 Md.-Eastern Shore(UMES)     76  55   +29.47    -8.47
HOME   #180 William & Mary              81  50   +12.64   +18.36
NEUT   # 50 Oklahoma                    73  54    -1.73   +20.73
NEUT   # 21 Butler                      67  68    -5.50    +4.50
HOME   #298 NC Wilmington               72  54   +20.45    -2.45
AWAY   #316 San Jose State              78  58   +15.67    +4.33
HOME   # 97 San Francisco               64  56    +6.12    +1.88
NEUT   #173 San Diego                   62  59    +8.91    -5.91
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -8.75             0.179