predictions for Villanova game

Okay, all together now:  I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS.

Can't prepare these summaries the evening before, because prognosticators
like Dunkel don't post their game predictions that early.  Can't wait until
after I wake up the next morning, because the game will have started by
then.  So here is it, 4:30 in the blessed A.M. (with apologies to Colonel
Potter).  And Dunkel STILL doesn't have his prediction up yet (as of 5:10 a.m.)
What's especially stupid is that Dunkel appears to be posting his predictions
in REVERSE chronological order, so later games in the day are up, while as of
5:23 a.m. the Kansas game is not, with less than two hours until tip-off at 7 a.m.
Does Dunkel really think they're attracting a user base of sports bettors by
working in REVERSE chronological order?  Great for the people betting on the
Nevada at St. Mary's game, which doesn't tip until MIDNIGHT eastern time and
was the first prediction posted.  You have 12 hours to get your bets placed.
But Kansas at Villanova, less than an hour away?  Sports bettors are looking
elsewhere for guidance by now.  Stupid.  Just stupid.

Dunkel Watch:  5:35 a.m. still no prediction up.  Working on 3 p.m. EST games.
Dunkel Watch:  5:45 a.m. still no prediction up.  Working on 2 p.m. EST games.
Dunkel Watch:  5:55 a.m. still no prediction up.  Working on 2 p.m. EST games.
Dunkel Watch:  6:05 a.m. still no prediction up.  Working on 2 p.m. EST games.
Dunkel Watch:  6:15 a.m. still no prediction up.  Working on 2 p.m. EST games.
Dunkel Watch:  6:30 a.m. still no prediction up.  Working on 1 p.m. EST games.
Dunkel Watch:  6:45 a.m. still no prediction up.  Working on 12 p.m. EST games.
Dunkel Watch:  6:50 a.m. FINALLY.

Villanova has lost both of its two games against the Sagarin Top 50,
which also happen to be in the Sagarin Top 25 (Ohio State and Baylor).
The former was a road game and a 25 point loss, playing almost 17 points
below expectation, their worst performance of the season.  The latter
was a neutral court game.  Today's game is at home for Villanova.  In
fact, it's the first true road game of the season for Kansas.

Don Davis is the most optimistic for Kansas, predicting an 11 point win
for the Jayhawks.  Real Time is the most pessimistic, calling for
Villanova to win by 5 points, despite having Kansas ranked ahead of
Villanova, which means Real Time must be using a rather hefty home
court advantage.  The rest of the predictions are in the 1 to 3 point
range in favor of Kansas.

Except for the Monmouth and Kansas City games, Kansas has been remarkably
consistent, playing within 7 points of expectation against all the top
tier opponents.  In fact, six games have been played within 4 points of
expectation.  Villanova has played their last eight games within 9 points
of expectation, though the Wildcats appear to be on a negative trend,
their last five games having all been below expectation.

So, while I'm waiting for Dunkel, did I mention that I HATE THESE EARLY
TIPS?

Pomeroy has Villanova with the #3 ranked offense; Kansas is down at #11.
However, Kansas has the #6 ranked defense; Villanova is down at #88.
Kansas should have an easier time scoring than Villanova.

With those well-above-expectation wins over Monmouth and Kansas City,
the Jayhawks naturally have a negative mental toughness rating, but
Villanova also has a negative mental toughness rating, and with far
greater statistical significance than for Kansas.  The danger in using
these early-season trend and mental toughness ratings is their large
uncertainties.  For example, the negative trend and negative mental
toughness ratings for Villanova would project to a 21 point loss today;
the Wildcats aren't THAT bad.  Meanwhile, the negative mental toughness
rating for Kansas would project to a 2 point loss today, which seems to
be within the realm of possibility, but would also represent one of the
outlier predictions.

And so it begins:  a 20+ game stretch against top tier opponents.  Get
to the Big 12 tournament finals, and we won't see a non-top-tier opponent
until game number 24 from now (in the NCAA Tournament).  Wow.

(Twiddling thumbs, waiting for Dunkel.)  So, how's the weather?  We have
high winds here.  The power has blinked once already during the preparation
of this summary.

Did I mention that I HATE THESE EARLY TIPS?

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Vill    KU       Defensive Stats     Vill    KU
Points/Game         80.4    83.7     Opp Points/Game     69.3    63.7
Avg Score Margin   +11.1   +20.0     Opp Effective FG %  50.7    44.4
Assists/Game        16.7    17.3     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.7     9.2
Total Rebounds/Gm   37.3    39.3     Def Rebounds/Gm     24.8    28.0
Effective FG %      56.6    58.6     Blocks/Game          3.9     4.7
Off Rebound %       29.6    30.7     Steals/Game          6.2     9.0
FTA/FGA            0.300   0.383     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.0    15.8
Turnover %          15.3    16.8

Considering how closely matched the two teams are, it's amazing to see
Kansas lead in every category except turnover percentage.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, though this game will create one for the
conference matchups with Baylor.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (forward)
most points        Saddiq Bey (forward)
most rebounds      Jeremiah Robinson-Earl (forward)
most assists       Collin Gillespie (guard)
most steals        Collin Gillespie (guard)
most blocks        Jermaine Samuels (forward)
most turnovers     Collin Gillespie (guard)
most fouls         Saddiq Bey (forward) / Collin Gillespie (guard)

Considering how Villanova's leading scorer and leading rebounder are both
forwards and different persons, Self should be able to play two bigs more
frequently during this game than in previous games.  That plays to a strength
of this Jayhawk team.

                                                           9-1           8-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Villanova
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.22   76   72       61       #  2   # 24    # 22   # 97 
Sagarin Predictor       +3.25   76   72       62.8     #  2   # 24    # 22   # 97 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +2.48   75   73                #  2   # 24    # 18   # 97 
Sagarin Recent Games    +3.85   76   72                #  2   # 24    # 25   # 97 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.71   76   72       66  
Massey                  +2.00   77   75       56       #  2   # 13    # 22   # 31
Pomeroy                 +1.63   73   71                #  4   # 39    # 19   #119
Greenfield              +1.00   74   73                #  1   #  3    # 19   # 27
Dunkel                 +10.00   80   70                #  7           # 32                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +1.50   74   72.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +1.60   77   75       55.3     #  2   #  1    # 28   # 30
Real Time               -5.00   73   78       37.4     #  2   #  5    # 11   # 29 
Seven Overtimes         +1.00   74   73       53       #  1   # 36    # 24   # 52
DPPI                   +11.40   80   69       91       #  2   # 10    # 33   # 88
ESPN BPI                +3.20                 61.8     #  3   # 56    #  9   # 80
Colley Matrix           +2.58                          #  4   #  6    # 17   # 21
NCAA NET                                               #  1           # 25
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +3.0    75.8 72.7
scatter                  3.7     2.2  2.2  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 25-6, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.18    +0.18
HOME   # 75 NC Greensboro               74  62   +15.93    -3.93
HOME   #240 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.21   +26.79
HOME   # 58 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +14.22    -2.22
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 34 BYU                         71  56    +8.09    +6.91
NEUT   # 26 Dayton                      90  84    +7.23    -1.23
HOME   # 44 Colorado                    72  58   +12.68    +1.32
HOME   #243 Milwaukee                   95  68   +28.34    -1.34
NEUT   #225 Kansas City(UMKC)           98  57   +24.31   +16.69
AWAY   # 22 Villanova                             +3.25             0.628
AWAY   # 57 Stanford                              +7.75             0.766
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma                             +13.13             0.890
AWAY   # 39 Iowa State                            +5.31             0.690
HOME   # 62 TCU                                  +14.57             0.913
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                +1.56             0.558
HOME   # 45 Texas                                +12.77             0.884
AWAY   # 15 West Virginia                         +2.33             0.586
HOME   # 39 Iowa State                           +11.73             0.864
HOME   # 27 Tennessee                            +10.48             0.836
AWAY   # 45 Texas                                 +6.35             0.724
HOME   # 20 Texas Tech                            +9.54             0.814
AWAY   # 80 Kansas State                         +10.03             0.826
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State                       +11.41             0.857
AWAY   # 62 TCU                                   +8.15             0.777
HOME   # 15 West Virginia                         +8.75             0.793
AWAY   # 20 Texas Tech                            +3.12             0.615
HOME   # 80 Kansas State                         +16.45             0.938
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +4.99             0.680
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma                              +6.71             0.735
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +7.98             0.772

Here is Villanova's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #295 Army West Point             97  54   +25.69   +17.31
AWAY   #  4 Ohio State                  51  76    -8.10   -16.90
HOME   #190 Ohio                        78  54   +18.38    +5.62
NEUT   #277 Middle Tennessee            98  69   +20.56    +8.44
NEUT   # 54 Mississippi State           83  76    +4.31    +2.69
NEUT   # 12 Baylor                      78  87    -1.69    -7.31
HOME   #143 La Salle                    83  72   +15.41    -4.41
HOME   # 96 Pennsylvania                80  69   +11.93    -0.93
AWAY   #238 Saint Joseph's-Pa.          78  66   +15.32    -3.32
NEUT   #154 Delaware                    78  70   +13.36    -5.36
HOME   #  2 Kansas                                -3.25             0.372