Updated DPPI - Can we get real with the top 25?

You can find my updated DPPI here --> DPPI

UNC fell all the way to 26th in the AP and an amazing 23rd in the coaches poll despite the fact that they are now 89th in my DPPI. They are 10th in the ACC. Alright already. Time to wake up and smell the coffee. This UNC team is merely a decent team. They are not an elite and certainly not a top 25. I will go as far as to say, they are 50/50 for making the NCAA this season and probably lower than that.

Kentucky was ranked 6th!! Exsqueeze me!! Before losing to Utah, they were probably worthy of a top 25 berth but not top 10. No way Jose'. I currently have them ranked 40th. I watched the Utah game. This team has serious talent but they play way way W-A-Y to inconsistently. They are undisciplined. I can see them shaping up into a very good team but lets rank them on what they have actually done. They should not be in the top 25.

Maryland had an unfortunate loss against Seton Hall yesterday. That was a quality loss. Seton Hall is a very good team (18th in the DPPI). Maryland should drop out of the top 10 but not by much. I have them ranked 14th. Turg has a good team.

Memphis was getting voted because of James Wiseman. He is gone. They are a decent team but should be in 20's not 11th and flirting with the top 10. It was a nice win against Tennessee, but Tennessee is an average offensive team at best. I have Tennessee as 37th right now. Memphis should be no better than 23rd.

Our upcoming opponent Villanova is another blue blood getting undue consideration. They are a good team (I have them 33rd). But they are 80th on defense. They should not be higher than 23rd-24th. I would not have them in the top 25.

Washington is neither a blue blood or a particularly good team. I, for the life of me, cannot figure out why they are in the top 25. I just have no clue. I have them 52nd. Mind-boggling.

Now, if there are these teams that are taking spots they do not deserve, who is getting shafted. Basically, it is all the mid-majors who are truly playing like top teams. Duquesne has played a nothing schedule so I can see that they are not getting much traction. But they are dominating against a weak schedule. I have them ranked 15th. They should at least be in the top 25.

Dayton caught everyones attention in Maui and rightfully so. They are 13th but this is a legit top 10 team. I actually have them 4th. And they have played a good schedule. They should be well into the top 10.

Arizona is an erstwhile blue blood so why are they not getting more love. They are ranked 16th but I have them at 6th. Granted, they have been wildly inconsistent. Their StDev is a sky high 13.2. For those who have no frame of reference that means they have played like world beaters at times and played like a crappy team at others. But overall they have been very strong. They should be top 10.

San Diego St. is for real. Their schedule is mediocre but they have dominated. I have them ranked 9th compared to their 20th in the AP. They should definitely move up a few spots.

Speaking of weak schedules, even after the Utah game, Kentucky still has the 291st SOS in the country. I am leery of Duquesne because they have played the 260th SOS. What does that say about Kentucky?

Arkansas received 1 vote for the top 25. I have them at 16th. Their schedule is decent and they are 9-1. No love for the Hogs.

BYU also received but a single vote. I have them at 20th and they have played the No. 2 SOS in the country. We saw them up close and personal. They are a good team.

Finally, West Virginia did make the top 25 this week at 25th. But this is a team that is looking very scary. They are one of only 7 teams that is ranked in the top 25 in both offense and defense in my DPPI. I have them 13th overall (24th offense, 13th defense). They should be 10 places up at least.

No for the best news. Last season my DPPI had 4 teams that were well ahead of the rest. They were Texas Tech, Duke, Virginia and Michigan St. We see how that played out. Two of those teams played for the National Championship. This season (and it is still early) I have 3 dominant teams and a 4th who is still pretty comfortably in 4th. They are;

1. Duke - 86.71 (93.79)
2. Kansas - 85.88 (93.96)
3. Ohio St. - 85.80 (94.09)
4. Dayton - 83.44 (88.97)
5. Arizona - 82.64 (90.53)

The first number is my rating based on a comprehensive theoretical schedule and the 2nd number is the raw predictor. You can see that the top three teams are dominant on the raw predictor. Plus, Duke, Kansas and Dayton have the additional benefit of being pretty consistent where as Arizona and Ohio St. have been less so. KU is looking very good right now.