predictions for UMKC game

For purposes of making a game prediction, I've changed today's contest from
"HOME" to "NEUT".  It's part of Kansas' season ticket package, so it's a home
game in that context, but it's not being played on either team's home court,
and although Kansas ought to have a rather sizeable crowd advantage, the
Sprint Center is closer to UMKC's campus than it is to KU's campus.  Some
might prefer to call it a semi-home game and halve the usual home court
advantage.  Sagarin is calling it a "Closeby" game, but is awarding the
reduced advantage to UMKC, not Kansas, leading to a discrepancy between his
prediction and my own prediction based on his numbers!  We're talking about
a difference of only a couple points at most, and the uncertainty in the
predicted margin is substantially larger than that, so it's not worth arguing
over how much the home court advantage ought to be.

Part of the difficulty in making an accurate game prediction is that the
parameter space is so much larger.  For example, if Kansas jumps out to a
huge lead, the walk-ons may get to play extended minutes, which is likely
to make the final score closer than it would have been if the regulars had
played the entire game.  Or Self could use this game as an opportunity for
certain bench players to work on weaknesses in their game, so they could get
extended minutes, perhaps running up the margin in the process.  Plus there
is the tendency for a team to let its collective foot off the gas pedal
after building up a huge lead.  I'm sure that many of you could add other
considerations.  The bottom line is that these kind of games are harder to
predict than ones in which the teams are more evenly matched.

It is the last of only three games this season against teams in the bottom
and middle tiers of NCAA Division I.  With 353 teams in Division I,
I consider the three tiers (top, middle, bottom) to be roughly 118 teams in
size.  With Monmouth currently at #241, Milwaukee currently at #234, and
UMKC currently at #227, all three are near the boundary between the middle
and bottom tiers.  Although UMKC is ranked ahead of Milwaukee, the Kangaroos
lost to the Panthers earlier this season by 9 points.  Starting next week,
the weakest team Kansas will face until the first round of the NCAA Tournament
is #82 Kansas State, and the Jayhawks will creep upward in the strength of
schedule rankings.  As of yesterday's action, Michigan had played 7 of their
10 games against the Sagarin Top 50, yet their strength of schedule is ranked
only #11 by Sagarin, compared to #1 New Orleans, who has played only 2 teams
in the Top 50.  I think Massey has it right with Michigan at #1 and Oregon at
#2; guess who's playing each other today?  In fact, the Ducks and Wolverines
are playing as I write this!

I think it's safe to say that UMKC has played a tougher schedule than
Milwaukee had played prior to their game with Kansas.  Interestingly, the
two toughest teams UMKC has played are both Big XII members, and they lost
on the road to both Oklahoma State and Iowa State by 18 points.  The
Kangaroos have been remarkably consistent, their inconsistency being just
5.3 points, compared to the Jayhawks' 10.2 points.  UMKC's best game came
against George Washington, in which they played 4.4 points above expectation,
while their worst game came against Drake, in which they played 9.5 points
below expectation.  If you ignore the Monmouth blowout, Kansas has been
even more consistent; the BYU game was 7.1 points better than expectation,
and the rest have been within 3 points of expectation.  An upset would not
quite be of Stephen F. Austin proportions (against Duke) in terms of
predicted margin, but considering how consistent each team has been, it
would be even more unlikely.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     UMKC    KU       Defensive Stats     UMKC    KU
Points/Game         62.2    81.9     Opp Points/Game     70.2    64.5
Avg Score Margin    -8.0   +17.4     Opp Effective FG %  51.9    43.6
Assists/Game         9.9    17.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      6.0     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   28.7    39.4     Def Rebounds/Gm     19.8    28.1
Effective FG %      47.0    57.8     Blocks/Game          2.8     4.1
Off Rebound %       19.4    29.9     Steals/Game          7.6     8.9
FTA/FGA            0.279   0.399     Personal Fouls/Gm   22.0    16.5
Turnover %          18.5    17.4

Common Opponents
================
There is one common opponent, namely Milwaukee:

KU  +27 Mil at home (+23 neutral court)
KC   -9 Mil on road ( -5 neutral court)
KU  +28 KC  neutral (+28 neutral court)

This game will create a common opponent for the Iowa State and Oklahoma State
games.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Rob Whitfield (guard)
most points        Javan White (forward)
most rebounds      Javan White (forward)
most assists       Jashire Hardnett (guard) / Brandon McKissic (guard)
most steals        Rob Whitfield (guard) / Javan White (forward)
most blocks        Javan White (forward)
most turnovers     Jordy Tshimanga (center)
most fouls         Javan White (forward) / Marvin Nesbitt Jr. (guard)

                                                           8-1           5-6
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          UMKC
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +22.18   79   57       94       #  3   # 17    #234   #130 
Sagarin Predictor      +21.57   78   57       99.8     #  3   # 17    #227   #130 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +21.24   78   57                #  3   # 17    #217   #130 
Sagarin Recent Games   +23.82   80   56                #  3   # 17    #249   #130 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +18.73   77   58       91  
Massey                 +36.00   88   52       99       #  2   # 16    #266   #289
Pomeroy                +22.13   76   54                #  5   # 27    #260   #125
Greenfield             +23.00   80   56.5              #  2   #  4    #221   #196
Dunkel                 +28.50   81   52                # 10           #243                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +23.00   79   56                                          
Dolphin Predictive     +22.08   80   58       97.3     #  3   #  1    #241   #174
Real Time              +29.00   89   60       98       #  1   #  1    #255   #125 
Seven Overtimes        +30.00   85   55       95       #  2   # 20    #250   #193
DPPI                   +28.90   85   56       99.9     #  3   #  2    #272   #202
ESPN BPI               +20.90                 95.9     #  6   # 56    #211   #126
Colley Matrix          +32.93                          #  4   #  2    #213   #147
common opponents       +28.00                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +25.4    81.1 56.0
scatter                  4.8     4.1  2.2  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 25-6, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -2.46    +0.46
HOME   # 75 NC Greensboro               74  62   +14.94    -2.94
HOME   #241 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +27.25   +27.75
HOME   # 68 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +14.50    -2.50
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 38 BYU                         71  56    +7.89    +7.11
NEUT   # 32 Dayton                      90  84    +7.13    -1.13
HOME   # 42 Colorado                    72  58   +11.90    +2.10
HOME   #234 Milwaukee                   95  68   +26.98    +0.02
NEUT   #227 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +23.22             0.998
AWAY   # 23 Villanova                             +2.17             0.581
AWAY   # 54 Stanford                              +6.65             0.735
HOME   # 43 Oklahoma                             +11.98             0.871
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                            +4.43             0.662
HOME   # 64 TCU                                  +14.38             0.913
AWAY   # 11 Baylor                                +0.34             0.513
HOME   # 45 Texas                                +12.50             0.881
AWAY   # 20 West Virginia                         +2.12             0.579
HOME   # 37 Iowa State                           +10.99             0.850
HOME   # 21 Tennessee                             +8.69             0.794
AWAY   # 45 Texas                                 +5.94             0.713
HOME   # 16 Texas Tech                            +7.75             0.768
AWAY   # 82 Kansas State                          +8.88             0.799
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma State                       +11.42             0.860
AWAY   # 64 TCU                                   +7.82             0.770
HOME   # 20 West Virginia                         +8.68             0.794
AWAY   # 16 Texas Tech                            +1.19             0.545
HOME   # 82 Kansas State                         +15.44             0.928
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma State                        +4.86             0.677
AWAY   # 43 Oklahoma                              +5.42             0.696
HOME   # 11 Baylor                                +6.90             0.743

Here is Kansas City's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NAIA        Avila                      102  49
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma State              51  69   -18.36    +0.36
AWAY   #141 Drake                       58  76    -8.47    -9.53
AWAY   #234 Milwaukee                   52  61    -2.80    -6.20
NAIA        Bacone                     111  38
NEUT   #251 George Washington           74  68    +1.60    +4.40
NEUT   #264 East Carolina               74  68    +2.13    +3.87
NEUT   # 90 Liberty                     49  62    -9.87    -3.13
HOME   #282 Western Illinois            68  67    +6.88    -5.88
AWAY   # 37 Iowa State                  61  79   -18.79    +0.79
AWAY   #275 McNeese State               73  82    -0.18    -8.82
NEUT   #  3 Kansas                               -23.22             0.002