predictions for the Colorado game

Don't look now, but Colorado is ranked one spot AHEAD of Dayton by
Sagarin (Overall rating).  Recall that the Dayton game went into
overtime.  Then again, that game was played on a neutral court,
whereas today's game will be played in the friendly confines of
Allen Field House.

Colorado hasn't given up more than 71 points this season, and that
was in their first game, when they scored their most points (81) of
the season against conference rival Arizona State in what was a
non-conference game.  Unlike the Big 12, where everybody plays
everybody both home and away, Colorado gets the two Arizona teams
only once this conference season, so the opener against Arizona State
won't necessarily trigger a third matchup, though all sorts of things
are possible in the post-season conference tournament.

Despite the low-scoring games that Colorado has been playing, Dunkel
expects a total of 150 points, the most of the various prognosticators
I follow.  He also has the most favorable prediction for Jayhawk fans,
with Kansas to win by 12.5 points.  Colley apparently uses a more
RPI-like formula, in which winning and losing matters most, so an
undefeated Colorado team is ranked higher than a one-loss Kansas team.
Fortunately, the home court advantage makes Kansas a fraction of a
point favorite, but Colley's prediction is the least favorable.  The
average is around 8.4 points in favor of Kansas.

I need to keep this short, as I'm on travel for this game, as well as
Tuesday's game.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     CU      KU       Defensive Stats     CU      KU
Points/Game         69.0    81.3     Opp Points/Game     56.3    65.0
Avg Score Margin   +12.7   +16.3     Opp Effective FG %  43.0    45.3
Assists/Game        12.0    16.5     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.9     8.5
Total Rebounds/Gm   38.9    38.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.7    27.8
Effective FG %      47.4    56.6     Blocks/Game          4.6     4.3
Off Rebound %       29.6    27.4     Steals/Game          6.7     9.5
FTA/FGA            0.432   0.393     Personal Fouls/Gm   13.4    16.3
Turnover %          17.9    16.6

The stat that jumped out the most, at least to me, is how often Colorado
gets to te charity stripe.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       McKinley Wright IV (guard)
most points        Tyler Bey (guard)
most rebounds      Tyler Bey (guard)
most assists       McKinley Wright IV (guard)
most steals        Tyler Bey (guard)
most blocks        Tyler Bey (guard)
most turnovers     Tyler Bey (guard)
most fouls         Evan Battey (forward)

Controlling Tyler Bey would seem to be the key to winning this game.  Self will
probably sic Garrett on him.

Meanwhile, Jalen Wilson is out with a broken ankle for at least three months, and
Mitch Lightfoot has taken a redshirt, as the Jayhawks have too many bigs.

                                                           6-1           7-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas        Colorado
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.34   69   60       78       #  3   # 12    # 28   #198 
Sagarin Predictor      +10.80   70   59       89.3     #  3   # 12    # 35   #198 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +9.06   69   60                #  3   # 12    # 25   #198 
Sagarin Recent Games    +7.83   68   61                #  5   # 12    # 20   #198 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.65   67   62       66  
Massey                  +8.00   73   65       74       #  9   # 13    # 14   # 57
Pomeroy                 +8.26   71   63                #  6   # 20    # 33   #219
Greenfield              +9.50   73   64                #  2   #  2    # 34   # 90
Dunkel                 +12.50   81   69                # 12           # 42                           
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +9.00   73.5 64.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +10.96   73   62       83.1     #  3   #  1    # 36   # 70
Real Time              +12.00   85   73       76.4     #  3   #  1    # 39   # 32 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   69   67       54       #  3   # 13    # 18   #155
DPPI                    +8.50   80   71       86.7     #  4   #  2    # 19   # 65
ESPN BPI               +10.40                 81.8     # 10   # 87    # 51   #278
Colley Matrix           +0.73                          # 12   #  7    #  5   # 60
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.4    73.0 64.3

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 24-7, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest game would be the road game
with Baylor.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -3.02    +1.02
HOME   # 76 NC Greensboro               74  62   +15.05    -3.05
HOME   #252 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.06   +26.94
HOME   # 62 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +13.76    -1.76
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 54 BYU                         71  56    +9.91    +5.09
NEUT   # 32 Dayton                      90  84    +6.91    -0.91
HOME   # 35 Colorado                             +10.80             0.893
HOME   #236 Milwaukee                            +27.10             0.992
HOME   #218 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +26.13             0.990
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                             +1.54             0.555
AWAY   # 47 Stanford                              +6.14             0.709
HOME   # 44 Oklahoma                             +12.24             0.864
AWAY   # 34 Iowa State                            +4.45             0.655
HOME   # 61 TCU                                  +13.71             0.890
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                +0.77             0.527
HOME   # 45 Texas                                +12.27             0.864
AWAY   # 23 West Virginia                         +2.49             0.588
HOME   # 34 Iowa State                           +10.73             0.832
HOME   # 22 Tennessee                             +8.41             0.774
AWAY   # 45 Texas                                 +5.99             0.704
HOME   # 26 Texas Tech                            +8.98             0.789
AWAY   # 99 Kansas State                         +11.24             0.843
HOME   # 33 Oklahoma State                       +10.28             0.821
AWAY   # 61 TCU                                   +7.43             0.747
HOME   # 23 West Virginia                         +8.77             0.784
AWAY   # 26 Texas Tech                            +2.70             0.596
HOME   # 99 Kansas State                         +17.52             0.942
AWAY   # 33 Oklahoma State                        +4.00             0.640
AWAY   # 44 Oklahoma                              +5.96             0.703
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +7.05             0.736

Here is Colorado's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   # 50 Arizona State               81  71    +1.74    +8.26
HOME   #207 San Diego                   71  53   +17.59    +0.41
HOME   # 95 UC Irvine                   69  53    +9.40    +6.60
NEUT   #272 Wyoming                     56  41   +18.49    -3.49
NEUT   # 64 Clemson                     71  67    +2.97    +1.03
HOME   #206 Sacramento State            59  45   +17.50    -3.50
HOME   #157 Loyola Marymount            76  64   +14.52    -2.52
AWAY   #  3 Kansas                               -10.80             0.107