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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
predictions for Dayton game
- asteroid
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5 years 7 months ago #23902
by asteroid
As of November 18, Dayton was #88 in Sagarin Overall and the lowest rated team
on the other side of the Maui Invitational bracket. Most folks were looking
forward to a matchup with Sparty and playing the consolation game of the
Champions Classic. The Hokies pretty much dashed those expectations. But hey,
Virginia Tech showed they're the better team, so we thought we'd still get a
good game playing Tech. Then Dayton came along and thoroughly dominated the
Hokies. So instead we get the unexpected matchup with the Flyers, who happen
to be undefeated and rising rapidly in the ratings.
Dayton's strength is obviously their offense. If Kansas can defend at least
as well as they did against BYU, then the Jayhawks should be able to win the
game. Then again, BYU relied heavily on the scoring of Toolson, so Kansas
needed only one defensive specialist (Garrett) to shut him down. Dayton is
more balanced, though Toppin is the key.
Hats off to those computer raters who take college basketball seriously.
Real Time RPI added in the results of the BYU game, but couldn't be bothered
to add the Dayton game to the schedule. Meanwhile Colley hasn't updated his
ratings since November 24. Over at Seven Overtimes, Bashuk actually has
Dayton ranked #2, one spot ahead of Kansas at #3, yet he has picked Kansas to
win the game, which is being played on a neutral court. Go figure.
Most of the predictions favor Kansas, but not all. Don Davis' DPPI is the
most pessimistic, calling for a 3 point loss by the Jayhawks, while Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis has Kansas as a 1.2 point underdog. Then again, the
eigenvectors favored BYU as well. Sagarin's Recent Games rating has the game
as a wash. The average is just 2.8 points in favor of Kansas, while the
scatter is 2.9 points. Trim your fingernails now, so you won't have anything
to bite during the game.
Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats Day KU Defensive Stats Day KU
Points/Game 87.6 79.6 Opp Points/Game 66.6 61.2
Avg Score Margin +21.0 +18.4 Opp Effective FG % 51.1 43.0
Assists/Game 19.6 17.4 Off Rebounds/Gm 8.8 9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm 34.2 38.6 Def Rebounds/Gm 22.4 27.8
Effective FG % 63.9 56.0 Blocks/Game 4.0 4.2
Off Rebound % 31.2 28.8 Steals/Game 5.0 10.0
FTA/FGA 0.295 0.376 Personal Fouls/Gm 15.6 15.6
Turnover % 14.8 17.3
Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.
Players to Watch
================
most minutes Jalen Crutcher (guard)
most points Obadiah Toppin (forward)
most rebounds Obadiah Toppin (forward)
most assists Jalen Crutcher (guard)
most steals Rodney Chatman (guard)
most blocks Obadiah Toppin (forward)
most turnovers Jordy Tshimanga (center)
most fouls Trey Landers (guard)
Center Moulaye Sissoko is taking a redshirt this season, so we shouldn't expect
to see him in action.
Meanwhile, Jalen Wilson is out with a broken ankle for at least three months, and
Mitch Lightfoot has taken a redshirt, as the Jayhawks have too many bigs.
5-1 5-0
Margin Predicted Win Prb Kansas Dayton
Predictor points Score percent Rating SOS Rating SOS
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
Sagarin Overall +3.98 73 69 64 # 2 # 35 # 20 #154
Sagarin Predictor +6.05 74 68 68.2 # 2 # 35 # 26 #154
Sagarin Golden Mean +4.78 74 69 # 3 # 35 # 25 #154
Sagarin Recent Games 0.00 71 71 # 3 # 35 # 4 #154
Sagarin Eigenvector -1.21 71 72 45
Massey +6.00 76 70 68 # 9 # 32 # 19 # 57
Pomeroy +3.08 71 68 # 8 # 63 # 23 #173
Greenfield +4.00 76 72 # 1 # 4 # 18 # 45
Dunkel +1.50 76 75 # #
Vegas (via Dunkel) +4.00 76 72
Dolphin Predictive +6.59 79 72 70.6 # 2 # 1 # 22 # 30
Real Time # 3 # 1 #133 # 84
Seven Overtimes +2.00 75 73 53 # 3 # 35 # 2 #157
DPPI -3.00 69 72 36.3 # 13 # # 10 #
ESPN BPI +3.30 62.0 # 9 # 87 # 29 #252
Colley Matrix +0.74 # 48 # 38 # 53 #310
==================== ====== ========= ======= ============ ============
average +2.8 73.9 71.0
scatter 2.9 2.8 2.1
Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 24-7, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses. Toughest games would be the road games
with Tech and Baylor, followed by the road game with Villanova.
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
NEUT # 1 Duke 66 68 -1.49 -0.51
HOME # 59 NC Greensboro 74 62 +13.41 -1.41
HOME #257 Monmouth-NJ 112 57 +28.85 +26.15
HOME # 61 East Tennessee State(ETS 75 63 +13.64 -1.64
Div2 Chaminade 93 63
NEUT # 64 BYU 71 56 +10.71 +4.29
NEUT # 26 Dayton +6.05 0.682
HOME # 33 Colorado +10.15 0.813
HOME #267 Milwaukee +29.51 0.995
HOME #240 Kansas City(UMKC) +27.77 0.992
AWAY # 17 Villanova +1.32 0.546
AWAY # 34 Stanford +4.37 0.649
HOME # 48 Oklahoma +12.30 0.859
AWAY # 44 Iowa State +5.68 0.690
HOME # 65 TCU +13.88 0.888
AWAY # 12 Baylor +0.24 0.508
HOME # 47 Texas +12.11 0.855
AWAY # 28 West Virginia +3.33 0.615
HOME # 44 Iowa State +11.80 0.849
HOME # 21 Tennessee +8.56 0.773
AWAY # 47 Texas +5.99 0.700
HOME # 14 Texas Tech +6.59 0.718
AWAY # 86 Kansas State +10.06 0.810
HOME # 53 Oklahoma State +13.15 0.875
AWAY # 65 TCU +7.76 0.751
HOME # 28 West Virginia +9.45 0.796
AWAY # 14 Texas Tech +0.47 0.516
HOME # 86 Kansas State +16.18 0.921
AWAY # 53 Oklahoma State +7.03 0.731
AWAY # 48 Oklahoma +6.18 0.706
HOME # 12 Baylor +6.36 0.711
Here is Dayton's season to-date:
SITE OPPONENT SCORE PREDIC ERROR PROB.
---- ----------------------------- ------- ------ ----- -----
HOME #144 Indiana State 86 81 +15.51 -10.51
HOME #340 Charleston Southern 90 61 +30.77 -1.77
HOME #128 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha) 93 68 +14.65 +10.35
NEUT # 67 Georgia 80 61 +4.97 +14.03
NEUT # 43 Virginia Tech 89 62 +2.67 +24.33
NEUT # 2 Kansas -6.05 0.318
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, wardhawk
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