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predictions for Dayton game

  • asteroid
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1 week 1 day ago #23902 by asteroid
As of November 18, Dayton was #88 in Sagarin Overall and the lowest rated team
on the other side of the Maui Invitational bracket.  Most folks were looking
forward to a matchup with Sparty and playing the consolation game of the
Champions Classic.  The Hokies pretty much dashed those expectations.  But hey,
Virginia Tech showed they're the better team, so we thought we'd still get a
good game playing Tech.  Then Dayton came along and thoroughly dominated the
Hokies.  So instead we get the unexpected matchup with the Flyers, who happen
to be undefeated and rising rapidly in the ratings.

Dayton's strength is obviously their offense.   If Kansas can defend at least
as well as they did against BYU, then the Jayhawks should be able to win the
game.  Then again, BYU relied heavily on the scoring of Toolson, so Kansas
needed only one defensive specialist (Garrett) to shut him down.  Dayton is
more balanced, though Toppin is the key.

Hats off to those computer raters who take college basketball seriously.
Real Time RPI added in the results of the BYU game, but couldn't be bothered
to add the Dayton game to the schedule.  Meanwhile Colley hasn't updated his
ratings since November 24.  Over at Seven Overtimes, Bashuk actually has
Dayton ranked #2, one spot ahead of Kansas at #3, yet he has picked Kansas to
win the game, which is being played on a neutral court.  Go figure.

Most of the predictions favor Kansas, but not all.  Don Davis' DPPI is the
most pessimistic, calling for a 3 point loss by the Jayhawks, while Sagarin's
eigenvector analysis has Kansas as a 1.2 point underdog.  Then again, the
eigenvectors favored BYU as well.  Sagarin's Recent Games rating has the game
as a wash.  The average is just 2.8 points in favor of Kansas, while the
scatter is 2.9 points.  Trim your fingernails now, so you won't have anything
to bite during the game.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Day     KU       Defensive Stats     Day     KU
Points/Game         87.6    79.6     Opp Points/Game     66.6    61.2
Avg Score Margin   +21.0   +18.4     Opp Effective FG %  51.1    43.0
Assists/Game        19.6    17.4     Off Rebounds/Gm      8.8     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.2    38.6     Def Rebounds/Gm     22.4    27.8
Effective FG %      63.9    56.0     Blocks/Game          4.0     4.2
Off Rebound %       31.2    28.8     Steals/Game          5.0    10.0
FTA/FGA            0.295   0.376     Personal Fouls/Gm   15.6    15.6
Turnover %          14.8    17.3

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jalen Crutcher (guard)
most points        Obadiah Toppin (forward)
most rebounds      Obadiah Toppin (forward)
most assists       Jalen Crutcher (guard)
most steals        Rodney Chatman (guard)
most blocks        Obadiah Toppin (forward)
most turnovers     Jordy Tshimanga (center)
most fouls         Trey Landers (guard)

Center Moulaye Sissoko is taking a redshirt this season, so we shouldn't expect
to see him in action.

Meanwhile, Jalen Wilson is out with a broken ankle for at least three months, and
Mitch Lightfoot has taken a redshirt, as the Jayhawks have too many bigs.

                                                           5-1           5-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Dayton
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +3.98   73   69       64       #  2   # 35    # 20   #154 
Sagarin Predictor       +6.05   74   68       68.2     #  2   # 35    # 26   #154 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +4.78   74   69                #  3   # 35    # 25   #154 
Sagarin Recent Games     0.00   71   71                #  3   # 35    #  4   #154 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -1.21   71   72       45  
Massey                  +6.00   76   70       68       #  9   # 32    # 19   # 57
Pomeroy                 +3.08   71   68                #  8   # 63    # 23   #173
Greenfield              +4.00   76   72                #  1   #  4    # 18   # 45
Dunkel                  +1.50   76   75                #              #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)      +4.00   76   72                                          
Dolphin Predictive      +6.59   79   72       70.6     #  2   #  1    # 22   # 30
Real Time                                              #  3   #  1    #133   # 84 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   75   73       53       #  3   # 35    #  2   #157
DPPI                    -3.00   69   72       36.3     # 13   #       # 10   #   
ESPN BPI                +3.30                 62.0     #  9   # 87    # 29   #252
Colley Matrix           +0.74                          # 48   # 38    # 53   #310
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +2.8    73.9 71.0
scatter                  2.9     2.8  2.1  

Here is Kansas' season, for which the projected record is now 24-7, despite the
fact that there are no projected losses.  Toughest games would be the road games
with Tech and Baylor, followed by the road game with Villanova.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -1.49    -0.51
HOME   # 59 NC Greensboro               74  62   +13.41    -1.41
HOME   #257 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +28.85   +26.15
HOME   # 61 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +13.64    -1.64
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 64 BYU                         71  56   +10.71    +4.29
NEUT   # 26 Dayton                                +6.05             0.682
HOME   # 33 Colorado                             +10.15             0.813
HOME   #267 Milwaukee                            +29.51             0.995
HOME   #240 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +27.77             0.992
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                             +1.32             0.546
AWAY   # 34 Stanford                              +4.37             0.649
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma                             +12.30             0.859
AWAY   # 44 Iowa State                            +5.68             0.690
HOME   # 65 TCU                                  +13.88             0.888
AWAY   # 12 Baylor                                +0.24             0.508
HOME   # 47 Texas                                +12.11             0.855
AWAY   # 28 West Virginia                         +3.33             0.615
HOME   # 44 Iowa State                           +11.80             0.849
HOME   # 21 Tennessee                             +8.56             0.773
AWAY   # 47 Texas                                 +5.99             0.700
HOME   # 14 Texas Tech                            +6.59             0.718
AWAY   # 86 Kansas State                         +10.06             0.810
HOME   # 53 Oklahoma State                       +13.15             0.875
AWAY   # 65 TCU                                   +7.76             0.751
HOME   # 28 West Virginia                         +9.45             0.796
AWAY   # 14 Texas Tech                            +0.47             0.516
HOME   # 86 Kansas State                         +16.18             0.921
AWAY   # 53 Oklahoma State                        +7.03             0.731
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma                              +6.18             0.706
HOME   # 12 Baylor                                +6.36             0.711

Here is Dayton's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #144 Indiana State               86  81   +15.51   -10.51
HOME   #340 Charleston Southern         90  61   +30.77    -1.77
HOME   #128 Omaha(Neb.-Omaha)           93  68   +14.65   +10.35
NEUT   # 67 Georgia                     80  61    +4.97   +14.03
NEUT   # 43 Virginia Tech               89  62    +2.67   +24.33
NEUT   #  2 Kansas                                -6.05             0.318
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, wardhawk

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