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predictions for BYU game

  • asteroid
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1 week 2 days ago #23886 by asteroid
Well, the matchup with Sparty in the finals that most folks were expecting
isn't going to happen, which means that Kansas has a better shot at winning
the Maui Invitational title, but the Jayhawks' strength of schedule won't
get as big a boost.  BYU is currently ranked #61 in Sagarin Predictor, not
too terribly different from #64 East Tennessee or #67 Greensboro, so that's
the level of difficulty for today's game.

Interesting that Chaminade outplayed Kansas at the beginning of the game
when Self was playing two bigs.  Once he went with a four-guard line-up, the
Jayhawks cruised.

Other than the Monmouth game, the Jayhawks have been remarkably consistent,
playing within 2 points of expectation, but that one outlier game actually
makes Kansas less consistent than BYU, who has played 3 games better than
expected by as much as 10 points, and 3 games worse than expected by as
much as 9 points.

Most of the game predictions are right around the 9 point level in favor of
Kansas, though ESPN's BPI is suspiciously low at just 4.5 points, and
Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is way out of whack with all his other methods,
picking BYU to win by 2 points.  Don Davis' DPPI is the most optimistic at
12 points, with Vegas right behind at 11 points.

You can tell which of the computer ratings people take college basketball
seriously.  Real Time RPI, for example, did not bother to update the
schedule for Kansas to include the opponent that wasn't known until late
yesterday.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     BYU     KU       Defensive Stats     BYU     KU
Points/Game         72.2    81.8     Opp Points/Game     67.2    62.5
Avg Score Margin    +5.0   +19.2     Opp Effective FG %  47.7    41.7
Assists/Game        15.0    17.2     Off Rebounds/Gm      5.8     9.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   32.8    39.5     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.8    28.5
Effective FG %      52.7    57.4     Blocks/Game          1.0     5.0
Off Rebound %       18.3    29.8     Steals/Game          6.3    10.2
FTA/FGA            0.223   0.410     Personal Fouls/Gm   16.8    17.0
Turnover %          15.9    17.9

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jake Toolson (guard)
most points        Jake Toolson (guard)
most rebounds      Zac Seljass (guard)
most assists       TJ Haws (guard)
most steals        Alex Barcello (guard)
most blocks        Dalton Nixon (forward) / Alex Barcello (guard)
most turnovers     TJ Haws (guard)
most fouls         Dalton Nixon (forward)

Forward Gavin Baxter is out with a shoulder injury.  Guard Jesse Wade is out with
a knee injury.  Forward Yoeli Childs is serving a nine-game suspension related to
improperly prepared paperwork involving the hiring of an agent for the NBA draft.
The fact that their leading rebounder is a guard suggests that BYU plays mostly
small ball.

Meanwhile, Jalen Wilson is out with a broken ankle for at least three months, and
Mitch Lightfoot has taken a redshirt, as the Jayhawks have too many bigs.

                                                           4-1           4-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          BYU
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall         +9.84   75   65       80       #  2   # 52    # 60   # 80 
Sagarin Predictor      +10.39   75   65       83.1     #  3   # 52    # 61   # 80 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +9.53   75   65                #  5   # 52    # 65   # 80 
Sagarin Recent Games    +9.77   75   65                #  4   # 52    # 67   # 80 
Sagarin Eigenvector     -1.61   69   71       44  
Massey                  +9.00   80   71       79       # 12   # 34    # 73   # 25
Pomeroy                 +7.97   73   65                #  8   # 84    # 68   #102
Greenfield             +10.50   78   67.5              #  3   #  4    # 54   # 20
Dunkel                  +9.00   77.5 68.5              #              #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +11.00   76.5 65.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive      +9.30   77   67       78.2     #  7   #  2    # 61   # 20
Real Time                                              #  3   #  1    # 90   #111 
Seven Overtimes         +9.00   75   66       74       #  6   # 76    # 93   # 93
DPPI                   +12.00   79   67       90.5     # 12   #       # 89   #   
ESPN BPI                +4.50                 66.2     # 11   #119    # 48   # 77
Colley Matrix           +8.01                          # 48   # 38    #110   # 90
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                 +8.3    75.8 66.8
scatter                  3.3     2.8  2.2  

Here is Kansas' season; we have one unknown opponent in the Maui Invitational,
so an assumption needs to be made to compute a projected record.  If we go with
the higher rated team, we'd get Virginia Tech in the finals, in which case the
projected record would be 23 and 8.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -3.72    +1.72
HOME   # 67 NC Greensboro               74  62   +13.85    -1.85
HOME   #278 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +29.72   +25.28
HOME   # 64 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +13.62    -1.62
Div2        Chaminade                   93  63
NEUT   # 61 BYU                                  +10.39             0.831
NEUT   # 41 Virginia Tech  or                     +8.22             0.752
NEUT   # 59 Dayton                               +10.28             0.803
HOME   # 36 Colorado                             +10.80             0.815
HOME   #265 Milwaukee                            +28.65             0.991
HOME   #221 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +26.31             0.985
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                             +1.10             0.536
AWAY   # 53 Stanford                              +6.72             0.711
HOME   # 56 Oklahoma                             +12.88             0.857
AWAY   # 38 Iowa State                            +4.97             0.660
HOME   # 60 TCU                                  +13.33             0.865
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                +0.25             0.508
HOME   # 33 Texas                                +10.55             0.809
AWAY   # 25 West Virginia                         +2.80             0.592
HOME   # 38 Iowa State                           +11.01             0.819
HOME   # 23 Tennessee                             +8.11             0.749
AWAY   # 33 Texas                                 +4.51             0.646
HOME   # 12 Texas Tech                            +6.24             0.698
AWAY   # 76 Kansas State                          +9.04             0.773
HOME   # 47 Oklahoma State                       +12.19             0.844
AWAY   # 60 TCU                                   +7.29             0.727
HOME   # 25 West Virginia                         +8.84             0.768
AWAY   # 12 Texas Tech                            +0.20             0.507
HOME   # 76 Kansas State                         +15.08             0.894
AWAY   # 47 Oklahoma State                        +6.15             0.695
AWAY   # 56 Oklahoma                              +6.84             0.715
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +6.29             0.699

Here is BYU's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #224 CS Fullerton                76  58   +16.05    +1.95
HOME   # 30 San Diego State             71  76    -0.10    -4.90
HOME   #179 Southern Utah               68  63   +13.52    -8.52
AWAY   # 27 Houston                     72  71    -6.86    +7.86
AWAY   #119 Boise State                 68  72    +3.75    -7.75
NEUT   # 97 UCLA                        78  63    +4.60   +10.40
NEUT   #  3 Kansas                               -10.39             0.169
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, hairyhawk, Bayhawk, wardhawk

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