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predictions for Chaminade game

  • asteroid
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1 week 3 days ago #23866 by asteroid
Chaminade, being a Division II school, isn't listed by virtually every computer
rating system, so there is very little to go on for today's game.  Thanks to
Massey and ESPN's BPI, otherwise we'd have nothing.

At first glance, Chaminade might appear to be a more worthy opponent than either
Massey or the BPI would suggest.  The Silverswords defeated Alaska-Fairbanks in
Anchorage rather handily (26 points), and then the following day defeated
Alaska-Anchorage rather handily (29 points).  Both are Division II opponents,
however, making it difficult to assess the quality of those wins.  Perhaps a
better measure would be the exhibition game that Chaminade played against Hawaii,
which is at least a Division I opponent.  The 'Swords lost by 17.  Hawaii ranks
as #175 in Sagarin Predictor.  Dolphin suggests that Kansas would beat Hawaii by
16 points, so the rather dangerous "transitivity" approach might suggest that
Kansas would beat Chaminade by 33.  That's less than Massey's margin, and a lot
less than the BPI's margin.

The probability of Kansas winning is at least 99 percent in all cases, so one
might expect this one to be a yawner.  Still, if you're fan of college basketball,
then you almost certainly know the story of how Chaminade defeated Ralph Sampson's
#1-ranked Virginia Cavalier team way back in 1982, when the 'Swords were an NAIA
team.  More recently, Chaminade knocked off Rick Barnes and Texas in 2012.  That
was the second time Barnes had lost to Chaminade, having previously done so while
coach of Providence in 1991.  Chaminade's most recent victory in the Maui
Invitational came at the expense of California in 2017, winning by 24 points in
the contest for seventh place.  Overall, Chaminade has won eight times in the
Maui Invitational.  The point here is:  It Can Happen.

The existence of the Maui Invitational, which started in 1984, is credited to
Chaminade's win over Virginia two years earlier.  Chaminade is the only
non-Division I team to participate.  Recent changes to the format mean that
Chaminade participates in the eight-team field only every other year.  In the
off years, they'll play road games at two of the field's participants.

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

                                                           3-1           2-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       Chaminade
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall           .                            #  4   # 58    #      #    
Sagarin Predictor         .                            #  3   # 58    #      #    
Sagarin Golden Mean       .                            #  6   # 58    #      #    
Sagarin Recent Games      .                            #  4   # 58    #      #    
Sagarin Eigenvector       .                       
Massey                 +34.00   96   62       99       # 12   #  8    #359   #630
Pomeroy                   .                            #  8   # 84    #      #   
Greenfield                .                            #  3   #  2    #      #   
Dunkel                    .                            #              #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)        .                                                      
Dolphin Predictive        .                            #  4   #  2    #      #   
Real Time                 .                            #  3   #  1    #      #    
Seven Overtimes           .                            #  6   # 76    #      #   
ESPN BPI               +44.80                 99.8     # 11   # 54    #      #   
Colley Matrix             .                            # 95   #123    #      #   
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +39.4    96.0 62.0
scatter                  7.6               

Here is Kansas' season; we have two unknown opponents in the Maui Invitational,
so some assumptions need to be made to compute a projected record.  If we go
with the higher rated team in each case, we'd get BYU in the semis and
Michigan State in the finals, in which case the projected record would be
23 and 8, which also assumes a win against Division II Chaminade.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -3.75    +1.75
HOME   # 64 NC Greensboro               74  62   +13.99    -1.99
HOME   #270 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +29.17   +25.83
HOME   # 63 East Tennessee State(ETS    75  63   +13.85    -1.85
Div2        Chaminade                         
NEUT   # 87 UCLA            or                   +13.69             0.868
NEUT   # 73 BYU                                  +11.82             0.833
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State  or                    -1.18             0.462
NEUT   # 48 Virginia Tech   or                    +9.18             0.773
NEUT   # 77 Dayton          or                   +12.44             0.845
NEUT   # 59 Georgia                              +10.24             0.798
HOME   # 38 Colorado                             +11.20             0.820
HOME   #264 Milwaukee                            +28.66             0.990
HOME   #217 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +26.05             0.983
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                             +1.12             0.536
AWAY   # 67 Stanford                              +8.05             0.745
HOME   # 39 Oklahoma                             +11.27             0.821
AWAY   # 42 Iowa State                            +5.25             0.666
HOME   # 60 TCU                                  +13.68             0.868
AWAY   # 10 Baylor                                +0.09             0.503
HOME   # 30 Texas                                +10.50             0.804
AWAY   # 25 West Virginia                         +2.61             0.584
HOME   # 42 Iowa State                           +11.51             0.826
HOME   # 16 Tennessee                             +7.30             0.724
AWAY   # 30 Texas                                 +4.24             0.635
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                            +6.41             0.700
AWAY   # 70 Kansas State                          +8.39             0.753
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State                       +12.33             0.843
AWAY   # 60 TCU                                   +7.42             0.728
HOME   # 25 West Virginia                         +8.87             0.766
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            +0.15             0.505
HOME   # 70 Kansas State                         +14.65             0.884
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +6.07             0.690
AWAY   # 39 Oklahoma                              +5.01             0.659
HOME   # 10 Baylor                                +6.35             0.698

Here is Chaminade's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        Fairbanks                   90  64
Div2        Anchorage                   85  56
HOME   #  3 Kansas                                                  0.000
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  • hoshi
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1 week 3 days ago #23868 by hoshi
Asteroid, do you plan to attend any of the games on Maui?

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1 week 3 days ago #23871 by asteroid
My academic responsibilities preclude any travel to Maui for the games.

I looked into it four years ago the last time Kansas played in the Maui, and it seemed the only way to get a ticket was to buy the package that some travel agent in Kansas was selling, which included airfare from Kansas City. Like I needed that.

I did attend the Armed Forces Classic at the Stan Sheriff Center a few years ago, though we lost to Indiana. Prior to that, not only did I attend the first two Rainbow Classic games back in 1997, I organized the pep band that played for those two games. The final was against Hawaii, and the Hawaii pep band had priority for the seating area designed to accommodate a band, so we didn't get to play. But we were heard on ESPN, and Tom Stidham said we sounded good!
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1 week 3 days ago #23873 by gorillahawk
Are they still playing in the place with slick floors and lots of muscle cramps like several years ago?

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1 week 3 days ago #23874 by HawkErrant

gorillahawk wrote: Are they still playing in the place with slick floors and lots of muscle cramps like several years ago?


You mean the Lahaina Civic Center?

Yup.

“The world is a dangerous place to live, not because of the people who are evil but because of the people who don’t do anything about it” ~Albert Einstein
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