predictions for East Tennessee State game

Not rated quite as highly as Greensboro, but still a top-tier opponent, which will
help KU's strength of schedule.  Technically a part of the Maui Invitational, which
has added a fourth "campus game" to remain attractive to teams who want to play the
maximum of 31 regular season games, which involves an exempt tournament.

I think I've figured out why I computed such a large margin of victory for Colley
last game, despite the low ranking for Kansas.  It appears that I failed to update
the rating for Kansas, as the value in my file was quite different from the one
updated today.  Of course, that mistake caused Colley to come closest to the actual
margin of victory over Monmouth.  (How did they manage to lead Kansas State by 9 at
the half?)  I've now corrected the error, and the result takes things in the opposite
direction, as Colley has the Buccaneers rated more highly than Kansas, so he's
projecting the Jayhawks to lose!  Well, that will make up for last time.

Although East Tennessee State has played three games, one was against a Division II
opponent, so only two games have been included in the Sagarin ratings, which means
the default national average for inconsistency of 11 points has been used, whereas
the computed inconsistency for Kansas is now being used (13.9 points).  So once
again the probabilities of winning do not sum to 100 percent, but the error is less
than 1 percent.

Question of the day:  would the Jayhawks be undefeated if Moss had played against
Duke?  Just one made trey would flip a 2-point loss into a 1-point win.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     ETSU    KU       Defensive Stats     ETSU    KU
Points/Game         76.5    84.0     Opp Points/Game     66.5    62.3
Avg Score Margin   +10.0   +21.7     Opp Effective FG %  48.3    40.3
Assists/Game        16.5    16.7     Off Rebounds/Gm     10.0    10.3
Total Rebounds/Gm   35.0    41.7     Def Rebounds/Gm     23.0    30.0
Effective FG %      60.8    57.7     Blocks/Game          6.5     4.0
Off Rebound %       39.2    32.6     Steals/Game          7.5     9.0
FTA/FGA            0.406   0.434     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.0    17.3
Turnover %          18.8    17.4

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Bo Hodges (guard)
most points        Bo Hodges (guard)
most rebounds      Jeromy Rodriguez (forward)
most assists       Bo Hodges (guard) / Isaiah Tisdale (guard) / Daivien Williamson (guard)
most steals        Isaiah Tisdale (guard)
most blocks        Bo Hodges (guard)
most turnovers     Bo Hodges (guard) / Daivien Williamson (guard)
most fouls         Jeromy Rodriguez (forward)

Forward Joe Hugley is out with a bone bruise to his knee.

Meanwhile, Jalen Wilson is out with a broken ankle for at least three months, and
Mitch Lightfoot has taken a redshirt, as the Jayhawks have too many bigs.

                                                           2-1           3-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas      E. Tenn. St.
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS   Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============
Sagarin Overall        +13.75   78   64                #  4   # 64    # 66   #221 
Sagarin Predictor      +15.00   78   63       90.8     #  2   # 64    # 72   #221 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +13.20   78   64                #  5   # 64    # 65   #221 
Sagarin Recent Games   +12.57   77   65                #  4   # 64    # 63   #221 
Sagarin Eigenvector    +15.95   79   63       90
Massey                 +16.00   80   64       91       # 14   # 14    # 96   #274
Pomeroy                 +8.59   73   65                #  9   #104    # 69   #269
Greenfield             +15.00   79.5 64.5              #  3   #  3    # 73   #270
Dunkel                 +20.50   85   64                #              #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +14.00   78.5 64.5                                        
Dolphin Predictive     +17.56   81   63       95.7     #  5   #  1    #101   #345
Real Time              +20.00   85   65       88.0     #  4   #  3    # 86   #235 
Seven Overtimes         +7.00   76   69       58       # 37   # 80    # 59   #320
DPPI                   +13.00   75   62                # 17   #       # 70   #   
ESPN BPI                +9.70                 81.9     # 11   # 58    # 55   #316
Colley Matrix           -7.71                          # 95   #123    # 41   #172
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============   ============ 
average                +12.8    78.8 64.2
scatter                  6.6     3.3  1.6

Here is Kansas' season; we have two unknown opponents in the Maui Invitational,
so some assumptions need to be made to compute a projected record.  If we go
with the higher rated team in each case, we'd get BYU in the semis and
Michigan State in the finals, in which case the projected record would be
21 and 10, which also assumes a win against Division II Chaminade.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -3.57    +1.57
HOME   # 58 NC Greensboro               74  62   +13.40    -1.40
HOME   #289 Monmouth-NJ                112  57   +30.91   +24.09
HOME   # 72 East Tennessee State(ETS             +15.00             0.908
Div2        Chaminade                         
NEUT   # 73 UCLA            or                   +12.19             0.834
NEUT   # 54 BYU                                  +10.03             0.788
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State  or                    +0.04             0.501
NEUT   # 63 Virginia Tech   or                   +10.76             0.804
NEUT   # 89 Dayton          or                   +15.06             0.885
NEUT   # 70 Georgia                              +11.59             0.822
HOME   # 35 Colorado                             +10.97             0.809
HOME   #258 Milwaukee                            +28.97             0.989
HOME   #225 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +27.05             0.984
AWAY   # 16 Villanova                             +1.55             0.549
AWAY   # 65 Stanford                              +7.83             0.734
HOME   # 37 Oklahoma                             +11.25             0.815
AWAY   # 50 Iowa State                            +6.67             0.702
HOME   # 42 TCU                                  +11.75             0.825
AWAY   # 18 Baylor                                +2.26             0.571
HOME   # 25 Texas                                 +9.46             0.774
AWAY   # 33 West Virginia                         +4.70             0.646
HOME   # 50 Iowa State                           +12.79             0.846
HOME   # 19 Tennessee                             +8.57             0.753
AWAY   # 25 Texas                                 +3.34             0.605
HOME   # 10 Texas Tech                            +6.63             0.701
AWAY   # 57 Kansas State                          +7.25             0.718
HOME   # 49 Oklahoma State                       +12.78             0.846
AWAY   # 42 TCU                                   +5.63             0.673
HOME   # 33 West Virginia                        +10.82             0.806
AWAY   # 10 Texas Tech                            +0.51             0.516
HOME   # 57 Kansas State                         +13.37             0.857
AWAY   # 49 Oklahoma State                        +6.66             0.702
AWAY   # 37 Oklahoma                              +5.13             0.659
HOME   # 18 Baylor                                +8.38             0.748

Here is East Tennessee State's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
Div2        Newberry                    79  50
AWAY   #277 Tennessee-Martin            92  75   +11.99    +5.01
HOME   #128 Winthrop                    61  58    +9.01    -6.01
AWAY   #  2 Kansas                               -15.00             0.086