predictions for Monmouth game

The Hawks are guaranteed to win this game.

You heard it here first, folks.

Not much to say, given that Monmouth is a bottom-tier opponent.   At
least they're near the top of the bottom tier.  At least Self will
have the opportunity to experiment with line-ups.

Dolphin is now on board for this season.  Earlier than usual for Andy.
So is RealTimeRPI.  The question is, is Real Time now ready for Prime Time?
And Colley is on board as well, though I have yet to compute a new scaling
factor for his ratings; I'd prefer to wait until they've stabilized, so
instead I'm using the value from last season.  What's odd is that he has
Kansas ranked WAY lower than anybody else, yet he's predicting a larger
margin than anybody else.  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis has reappeared,
but unlike his other methods, it must not include any bias from last season,
because the small margin is way out of whack with everybody else.

Normally the odds of winning for KU and the opponent add to 100 percent,
but not in this case.  It's a feature, not a bug.  The reason is simple.
At the beginning of the season, there is no way to compute a valid
inconsistency factor for the team in question, so the program defaults
to a national average of 11 points.  That's the case for KU.  At some point,
however, the program switches over to using the computed inconsistency
factor based on actual games from this season.  It's debatable as to how
many games a team should play before giving the computed inconsistency
higher weight than the national average inconsistency.  For what it's worth,
the three games Monmouth has played caused the program to switch to using
the computed inconsistency, so that's where the difference arises.
Fortunately, for this game it's just a 1 percent error.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     Monm    KU       Defensive Stats     Monm    KU
Points/Game         64.7    70.0     Opp Points/Game     76.3    65.0
Avg Score Margin   -11.7    +5.0     Opp Effective FG %  52.3    43.7
Assists/Game        15.0    14.0     Off Rebounds/Gm      9.7    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   34.0    41.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     21.7    30.0
Effective FG %      45.6    52.3     Blocks/Game          3.7     3.5
Off Rebound %       27.6    31.7     Steals/Game          6.3     8.0
FTA/FGA            0.203   0.413     Personal Fouls/Gm   19.0    16.0
Turnover %          20.3    22.5

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents, though the game will create a common opponent
when we get around to playing Kansas State.  We need to win by at least 19
to do better than the Wildcats.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Deion Hammond (guard)
most points        Ray Salnave (guard)
most rebounds      Mustapha Traore (forward)
most assists       Samuel Chaput (guard)
most steals        Deion Hammond (guard) / Ray Salnave (guard) / Samuel Chaput (guard)
most blocks        Nikkei Rutty (forward)
most turnovers     Samuel Chaput (guard)
most fouls         Ray Salnave (guard)

No injuries for the Monmouth Hawks.  Meanwhile, Jalen Wilson is out with a
broken ankle for at least three months, and Mitch Lightfoot has taken a
redshirt, as the Jayhawks have too many bigs.  If Self plays a four-guard
lineup more than originally planned, the Jayhawks may STILL have too many
bigs.

                                                           1-1             1-2
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas         Monmouth
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +25.57   82   56       96       #  7   # 18     #239   # 73 
Sagarin Predictor      +25.76   82   56       99.0     #  6   # 18     #240   # 73 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +25.72   82   56                #  7   # 18     #233   # 73 
Sagarin Recent Games   +25.02   81   56                #  7   # 18     #246   # 73 
Sagarin Eigenvector     +4.62   71   67       67
Massey                 +30.00   85   55       98       # 14   #  1     #245   # 31
Pomeroy                +21.29   80   58                # 10   # 30     #247   # 77
Greenfield             +26.50   84   58                #  6   #  3     #265   # 55
Dunkel                 +23.50   82   58                #               #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +27.00   85   58                                           
Dolphin Predictive     +21.18   81   60       95.7     #  7   #  2     #223   # 53
Real Time              +34.00   89   55       98.5     #  3   #  3     #231   #104 
Seven Overtimes        +28.00   83   55       91       # 91   # 28     #255   # 72
ESPN BPI               +18.80                 94.5     # 16   # 12     #197   # 40
Colley Matrix          +36.09                          #127   # 45     #219   #116
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +24.9    82.1 57.5
scatter                  7.2     4.1  3.2

Here is Kansas' season; we have two unknown opponents in the Maui Invitational,
so some assumptions need to be made to compute a projected record.  If we go
with the higher rated team in each case, we'd get BYU in the semis and
Michigan State in the finals, in which case the projected record would be
21 and 10, which also assumes a win against Division II Chaminade.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -5.70    +3.70
HOME   # 80 NC Greensboro               74  62   +14.68    -2.68
HOME   #240 Monmouth-NJ                          +25.76             0.990
HOME   # 57 East Tennessee State(ETS             +11.98             0.862
Div2        Chaminade                         
NEUT   # 89 UCLA             or                  +12.51             0.872
NEUT   # 61 BYU                                   +9.06             0.795
NEUT   #  2 Michigan State   or                   -2.73             0.402
NEUT   # 68 Virginia Tech    or                  +10.06             0.820
NEUT   #113 Dayton           or                  +15.14             0.916
NEUT   # 70 Georgia                              +10.60             0.832
HOME   # 40 Colorado                              +9.62             0.809
HOME   #276 Milwaukee                            +27.89             0.994
HOME   #197 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +23.80             0.985
AWAY   # 25 Villanova                             +1.97             0.571
AWAY   # 71 Stanford                              +7.51             0.753
HOME   # 24 Oklahoma                              +7.91             0.764
AWAY   # 51 Iowa State                            +4.46             0.657
HOME   # 47 TCU                                  +10.19             0.823
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                -0.31             0.489
HOME   # 19 Texas                                 +6.79             0.731
AWAY   # 32 West Virginia                         +2.52             0.591
HOME   # 51 Iowa State                           +10.72             0.835
HOME   # 28 Tennessee                             +8.37             0.777
AWAY   # 19 Texas                                 +0.53             0.519
HOME   #  8 Texas Tech                            +4.26             0.651
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                          +3.53             0.626
HOME   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +9.88             0.815
AWAY   # 47 TCU                                   +3.93             0.640
HOME   # 32 West Virginia                         +8.78             0.788
AWAY   #  8 Texas Tech                            -2.00             0.428
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                          +9.79             0.813
AWAY   # 42 Oklahoma State                        +3.62             0.629
AWAY   # 24 Oklahoma                              +1.65             0.560
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +5.95             0.706

Here is Monmouth's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
AWAY   #238 Lehigh                      66  62    -3.19    +7.19
AWAY   #142 Hofstra                     74  94    -9.19   -10.81
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                54  73   -19.10    +0.10
AWAY   #  6 Kansas                               -25.76             0.000