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predictions for Greensboro game

  • asteroid
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4 days 14 hours ago #23752 by asteroid
Kansas had the more veteran team, but it sure didn't show, as the Jayhawks
literally threw the Duke game away with all those turnovers.  Get that under
control, and what was a tight game could have been turned into a comfortable
win.

What do you suppose the chances are that we'll see the same four teams in the
Final Four that started the season in the Champions Classic?  Of course, there
is a good chance we'll see Michigan State in the Maui Invitational for what
could also be called the consolation game of the Champions Classic.

Some might take comfort in the fact that our team was not at full strength
for the Duke game.  In particular, the Jayhawks were missing someone who is
expected to be a good outside shooter.  Will Moss play today?  Inquiring
minds would like to know.

Most prognosticators have Kansas as a double-digit favorite over the Spartans.
The odd man out is Seven Overtimes, which provides us with some insight into
how Bashuk computes his ratings.  Most of his top teams have 1-0 records, so
it appears that he's using more of an RPI-like rating scheme, in which only
winning and losing matters.  Greensboro won big over North Carolina A&T, while
Kansas lost to Duke.  He has Kansas ranked #93, while Greensboro is #8.  As
such, Kansas is an 11 point underdog, with just a 21 percent chance of winning.
And now we know why Seven Overtimes isn't ready for prime time.  At least it's
on board for this season, unlike Whitlock, and Colley, and Dolphin, and Real
Time RPI.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     NC-G    KU       Defensive Stats     NC-G    KU
Points/Game         83.0    66.0     Opp Points/Game     50.0    68.0
Avg Score Margin   +33.0    -2.0     Opp Effective FG %  37.0    42.2
Assists/Game        17.0    13.0     Off Rebounds/Gm     14.0    10.0
Total Rebounds/Gm   46.0    40.0     Def Rebounds/Gm     26.0    30.0
Effective FG %      51.6    50.0     Blocks/Game          6.0     5.0
Off Rebound %       36.8    34.5     Steals/Game         12.0    11.0
FTA/FGA            0.429   0.520     Personal Fouls/Gm   20.0    20.0
Turnover %          11.8    31.1

Greensboro has the advantage in most of the stats, but that reflects the
quality of the opponent played in the first game.  The eye-popping stat is
the turnover percentage; almost a three-to-one ratio!

Common Opponents
================
There are no common opponents.  Surprise, surprise.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Isaiah Miller (guard)
most points        Kaleb Hunter (guard)
most rebounds      Kaleb Hunter (guard)
most assists       Keyshaun Langley (guard)
most steals        Isaiah Miller (guard)
most blocks        James Dickey (forward) / Kyrin Galloway (forward)
most turnovers     Isaiah Miller (guard)
most fouls         Kyrin Galloway (forward)

                                                           0-1             1-0
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas       NC Greensboro
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall        +13.84   78   64       88       #  8   #  2     # 75   #222 
Sagarin Predictor      +13.86   78   64       89.6     #  8   #  2     # 75   #222 
Sagarin Golden Mean    +13.25   77   64                # 11   #  2     # 85   #222 
Sagarin Recent Games   +12.74   77   64                #  7   #  2     # 74   #222 
Massey                 +14.00   77   63       88       # 15   #  9     #104   #209
Pomeroy                +11.97   78   66                # 10   #  7     #100   #229
Greenfield             +14.50   77   62.5              #  5   #  4     # 94   #282
Dunkel                 +18.50   80   62                #               #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)     +15.50   80   64.5                                         
Seven Overtimes        -11.00   61   72       21       # 93   #  1     #  8   #161
ESPN BPI               +13.10                 87.2     # 16   # 12     # 97   #216
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                +11.8    76.3 64.6
scatter                  7.8     5.5  2.8

Here is Kansas' season; we have two unknown opponents in the Maui Invitational,
so some assumptions need to be made to compute a projected record.  If we go
with the higher rated team in each case, we'd get BYU in the semis and
Michigan State in the finals, in which case the projected record would be
22 and 9, which also assumes a win against Division II Chaminade.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        66  68    -4.47    +2.47
HOME   # 75 NC Greensboro                        +13.86             0.896
HOME   #218 Monmouth-NJ                          +24.27             0.986
HOME   # 65 East Tennessee State(ETS             +12.22             0.867
Div2        Chaminade                         
NEUT   # 95 UCLA            or                   +13.25             0.886
NEUT   # 62 BYU                                   +8.84             0.789
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State  or                    -1.06             0.462
NEUT   # 63 Virginia Tech   or                    +8.98             0.793
NEUT   # 82 Dayton          or                   +11.76             0.857
NEUT   # 60 Georgia                               +8.66             0.784
HOME   # 46 Colorado                             +10.54             0.831
HOME   #252 Milwaukee                            +26.14             0.991
HOME   #169 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +21.45             0.974
AWAY   # 10 Villanova                             -1.87             0.433
AWAY   #102 Stanford                             +10.56             0.831
HOME   # 31 Oklahoma                              +8.63             0.784
AWAY   # 30 Iowa State                            +2.12             0.576
HOME   # 50 TCU                                  +11.07             0.843
AWAY   #  9 Baylor                                -2.00             0.428
HOME   # 20 Texas                                 +6.88             0.734
AWAY   # 22 West Virginia                         +1.38             0.550
HOME   # 30 Iowa State                            +8.38             0.777
HOME   # 32 Tennessee                             +8.63             0.784
AWAY   # 20 Texas                                 +0.62             0.522
HOME   # 13 Texas Tech                            +5.33             0.686
AWAY   # 40 Kansas State                          +3.49             0.624
HOME   # 48 Oklahoma State                       +10.82             0.837
AWAY   # 50 TCU                                   +4.81             0.669
HOME   # 22 West Virginia                         +7.64             0.756
AWAY   # 13 Texas Tech                            -0.93             0.466
HOME   # 40 Kansas State                          +9.75             0.812
AWAY   # 48 Oklahoma State                        +4.56             0.661
AWAY   # 31 Oklahoma                              +2.37             0.585
HOME   #  9 Baylor                                +4.26             0.651

Here is Greensboro's season to-date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #329 NC A&T                      83  50   +22.07   +10.93
AWAY   #  8 Kansas                               -13.86             0.104
The following user(s) said Thank You: HawkErrant, sasnak, Bayhawk, gorillahawk, jayhawk969, porthawk

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