predictions for Duke game

Up until last year, we've had one game that counts before playing in the
Champions Classic, so the computers had at least SOMETHING from the season
in question on which to base a prediction.  But like last year, we're
starting off this season with the Champions Classic, so the computers have
NOTHING from this season on which to base a prediction.  They are heavily
biased by the results from last season, which probably explains why the
majority are favoring Duke in today's matchup.

Now, having said that, the people behind the computer algorithms have SOME
knowledge of the changes in the various teams' rosters and somehow take that
into account.  Otherwise both Texas Tech and Kansas State would be rated
ahead of Kansas at the start of this season.  They aren't.  Indeed, Kansas
State has dropped considerably in the starting ratings for this season.  So
it's not like the computer ratings are totally worthless for this first game.

Of course, we do have the exhibition games.   Duke struggled with their
first exhibition opponent before obliterating their second.  Kansas
struggled with Fort Hays State until early in the second half, and then
obliterated Pittsburg State, so not a lot of difference there.  Slight
edge to Kansas, perhaps, for pulling away from the Tigers in the second
half.

But the human pollsters know a thing or two, and Kansas is ranked ahead
of Duke in both the AP and Coaches polls for a reason.  Bilas has Kansas
#2 and Duke down at #9.  I think the key ingredient in today's game is
experience.  Duke is probably going to start three freshmen, a sophomore,
and a junior.  Kansas will likely start a senior, two juniors, and two
sophomores.  Lots of talent on both sides; more experience on the Kansas
side.  Then again, one of those Kansas juniors sat out the entire season
last go around, so the experience advantage isn't quite as large as the
class affiliations would indicate.

Curiously, when I first checked the various prognosticators yesterday,
Greenfield (Team Rankings) had Duke by 1.5 points; today he has Kansas by
2 points!  Hmm.   Lots of the usual prognosticators are not yet on board
for this season.  We'll take what we can get.

                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas           Duke
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         -5.68   69   74                #  7   #  -     #  1   #  - 
Sagarin Predictor       -5.68   69   74       30.3     #  7   #  -     #  1   #  - 
Sagarin Golden Mean     -5.68   69   74                #  7   #  -     #  1   #  - 
Sagarin Recent Games    -5.68   69   74                #  7   #  -     #  1   #  - 
Massey                  -4.00   73   77       38       # 13   #  -     #  4   #  -
Pomeroy                 -4.64   75   80                # 10   #  -     #  4   #  -
Greenfield              +2.00   77   75                #  4   #  -     #  3   #  -
Dunkel                  -6.00   68   74                #               #                              
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -1.00   76   77                                           
Seven Overtimes         -4.00   72   76       29       #  -   #  -     #  -   #  -
ESPN BPI                -3.20                 38.3     # 14   #  -     #  5   #  -
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 -4.0    71.7 75.5
scatter                  2.5     3.4  2.0

Here is Kansas' season; we have two unknown opponents in the Maui Invitational,
so some assumptions need to be made to compute a projected record.  If we go
with the higher rated team in each case, we'd get BYU in the semis and
Michigan State in the finals, in which case the projected record would be
22 and 9, which also assumes a win against Division II Chaminade.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                                  -5.68             0.303
HOME   # 89 NC Greensboro                        +15.97             0.927
HOME   #234 Monmouth-NJ                          +25.80             0.990
HOME   # 64 East Tennessee State(ETS             +12.73             0.876
Div2        Chaminade                         
NEUT   # 81 UCLA   or                            +12.19             0.866
NEUT   # 63 BYU                                   +9.37             0.803
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State   or                   -2.52             0.409
NEUT   # 78 Virginia Tech    or                  +11.50             0.852
NEUT   # 82 Dayton           or                  +12.20             0.866
NEUT   # 59 Georgia                               +9.04             0.794
HOME   # 47 Colorado                             +11.05             0.842
HOME   #246 Milwaukee                            +26.64             0.992
HOME   #165 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +21.96             0.977
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                             -0.40             0.485
AWAY   #109 Stanford                             +11.61             0.854
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                              +9.34             0.802
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                            +2.06             0.574
HOME   # 52 TCU                                  +11.58             0.854
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                -0.63             0.477
HOME   # 22 Texas                                 +7.23             0.744
AWAY   # 27 West Virginia                         +1.75             0.563
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                            +8.46             0.779
HOME   # 21 Tennessee                             +7.23             0.744
AWAY   # 22 Texas                                 +0.83             0.530
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +5.26             0.684
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                          +3.59             0.628
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +9.34             0.802
AWAY   # 52 TCU                                   +5.18             0.681
HOME   # 27 West Virginia                         +8.15             0.771
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -1.14             0.459
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                          +9.99             0.818
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +2.94             0.605
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                              +2.94             0.605
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +5.77             0.700

Here is Duke's season to date:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  7 Kansas                                +5.68             0.697