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2019-2020 season projection

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1 week 2 days ago #23687 by asteroid
The asteroid is returning to periJAYHAWKion.

Here is Kansas' season; we have two unknown opponents in the Maui Invitational,
so some assumptions need to be made to compute a projected record. If we go
with the higher rated team in each case, we'd get BYU in the semis and
Michigan State in the finals, in which case the projected record would be
22 and 9, which also assumes a win against Division II Chaminade, for which
a formal probability can't be computed because Sagarin doesn't tabulate
ratings for Division II teams. Note that Duke is a 5 to 6 point favorite
in Tuesday's matchup according to these starting ratings, which are biased
by last season, so all the usual caveats apply. Projected losses include
at Tech, at Baylor, at Villanova, and the neutral court games with Duke
and Michigan State.

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  1 Duke                                  -5.68             0.303
HOME   # 89 NC Greensboro                        +15.97             0.927
HOME   #234 Monmouth-NJ                          +25.80             0.990
HOME   # 64 East Tennessee State(ETS             +12.73             0.876
Div2        Chaminade                         
NEUT   # 81 UCLA   or                            +12.19             0.866
NEUT   # 63 BYU                                   +9.37             0.803
NEUT   #  3 Michigan State   or                   -2.52             0.409
NEUT   # 78 Virginia Tech    or                  +11.50             0.852
NEUT   # 82 Dayton           or                  +12.20             0.866
NEUT   # 59 Georgia                               +9.04             0.794
HOME   # 47 Colorado                             +11.05             0.842
HOME   #246 Milwaukee                            +26.64             0.992
HOME   #165 Kansas City(UMKC)                    +21.96             0.977
AWAY   # 17 Villanova                             -0.40             0.485
AWAY   #109 Stanford                             +11.61             0.854
HOME   # 35 Oklahoma                              +9.34             0.802
AWAY   # 29 Iowa State                            +2.06             0.574
HOME   # 52 TCU                                  +11.58             0.854
AWAY   # 13 Baylor                                -0.63             0.477
HOME   # 22 Texas                                 +7.23             0.744
AWAY   # 27 West Virginia                         +1.75             0.563
HOME   # 29 Iowa State                            +8.46             0.779
HOME   # 21 Tennessee                             +7.23             0.744
AWAY   # 22 Texas                                 +0.83             0.530
HOME   # 11 Texas Tech                            +5.26             0.684
AWAY   # 41 Kansas State                          +3.59             0.628
HOME   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +9.34             0.802
AWAY   # 52 TCU                                   +5.18             0.681
HOME   # 27 West Virginia                         +8.15             0.771
AWAY   # 11 Texas Tech                            -1.14             0.459
HOME   # 41 Kansas State                          +9.99             0.818
AWAY   # 36 Oklahoma State                        +2.94             0.605
AWAY   # 35 Oklahoma                              +2.94             0.605
HOME   # 13 Baylor                                +5.77             0.700
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1 week 1 day ago #23689 by NotOstertag
Poppycock! Balderdash! :dry:

We're going to beat Duke. You'd think that Sagarin (and others) would come up with a more predictive formula to start the season. Duke's current squad might very well be very good, but they're not the team with Zion Williamson, so that alone might be a 5 or 6 point difference. Also, KU isn't the team they were last year with Silvio back, Dok healthy, and some added outside shooting firepower.

You'd think that the ratings guys could apply some kind of formula that could "reset" the rankings until enough games are in the books to make the guesstimates a little more accurate. For example:

>Returning scoring vs. scoring lost. For example, Duke loses Williamson and Barrett. If they amounted to, say, 30% of Duke's scoring how much of that can be replaced with incoming freshmen or former bench guys getting promoted. Maybe that still leave them 10% short of where they were offensively. Decrease their rating accordingly.

>Use a "benchmark" score of the "average staring player" in D1. Then do an educated guess on guys who you don't have data on: to 10 recruit: 20% higher than the benchmark. Top 50 recruit: 10% higher, etc.

>Adjustments for end-of-season status vs. beginning-of-new-season status. For example, KU finished last year with Dok and DeSousa out of the lineup. We do have data on them from when they were playing, so we can make decent predictions about their potential being healthy and eligible. Maybe that alone bumps KU's initial rating up a couple points.


In the end, I guess it doesn't matter because once enough games are played, it all balances out. Nevertheless, I'd love it if some of these ratings experts did a little work to handicap the teams based on what we know going in.

In any case, that's Asteroid for keeping us all on top of this stuff.

14 championships, 13 home losses since 2003
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1 week 1 day ago #23691 by hairyhawk
I think you make some very solid points on how to mathematically adjust last seasons data for a beginning point on this years data. I would adjust less than your suggestions but just taking the % of production returning and using that to sway your initial projection seems like a very easy and useful adjustment. The weighting would be tricky at first but I would not expect it to be too bad.
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1 week 1 day ago #23693 by NotOstertag
I was just pulling percentages out of thin air. Nevertheless, if Sagarin still has Duke as the top team in the land, I'd say it's more realistic that they're a top 10 team with all the rookies. KU and/or Michigan State are probably top 5. In fact, you could probably use some kind of average of preseason polls to benchmark the teams off the bat.

Nevertheless, if a guy as dumb as me can come up with the concept, a lot of pointy-headed numbers guys could probably do it even better.

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1 week 13 hours ago #23697 by asteroid
It's not like the computers are operating in a total vacuum. Compare last season's final ratings with this season's starting ratings: Kansas State 86.57 vs. 83.82, which reflects the loss of Dean Wade, among others; Texas Tech 91.79 vs. 88.55; Kansas 88.85 vs. 90.61, which reflects the return of Doke and Silvio.

Now, Duke was 95.95 and is now 96.29, which is a bit of a head scratcher, having lost Williamson and Barrett, though having picked up Hurt. But team chemistry is a critical ingredient. Did Kansas get better without Vick? Addition via subtraction? I wouldn't be surprised if team chemistry is a bigger factor than simply accounting for scoring lost and adding talented freshmen/transfers.

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1 week 12 hours ago #23698 by hairyhawk
I agree completely that team chemistry is very important and also very hard to quantify. I see now that you gave the numbers that they do try to take the changes in personnel into account but nobody knows how it will really turn out. It is interesting to me that Duke lost the 1st 3rd and 10th pick in the NBA draft and they think they will be better this year.

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