Wilt or Michael

So who is really the most dominant player ever in the NBA? I have a friend who vociferously thinks I am biased totally when I aver for Wilt Chamberlain. While I will gladly admit that there are a handful of players that could all be considered as the best for various reason, not the least of which is a subjective assessment (read bias). He, OTOH, contends that MJ is without question, objectively and subjectively the best ever and any thinking adult would agree with that. He will not even consider that Wilt should be considered.

Enter the new (relatively) sexy statistic that the groovy algos have adopted called "Win Shares". It is a one-stop-shopping all -inclusive stat that is intended to measure a players total contribution to winning games. We can argue whether or not it accomplishes that effectively, but for the sake of this discussion, let's assume it does what it is intended to do. So we now have a stat that includes all contribution to winning and team success. So if we use that where would Wilt fall? Where would Michael fall? How about Kareem or Lebron?

So lets look at 4 aspects of this Win Shares.

1. Overall Win Shares -- Obviously the total win shares is very important. But the question that comes up is it is influenced by longevity. One might then argue that longevity is a valid part of contributing. But that is only partially true. What about a career that is shortened by injury? Or a career that was interrupted by service such as Ted Williams in WWII or David Robinson with his navy commitment? One could be the best of all-time and not have amassed the highest overall Win Shares. But it is worth looking at. The first table below is sorted by total win shares. Wilt is second only to Kareem Abdul Jabbar. Third place falls off quite dramatically to Karl Malone. Lebron is 4th and MJ is 5th, about 20% below Wilt. So is Kareem to be considered the best all-time? No, lets look at effectiveness and also this issue of cutting careers short. Wilt chose to retire but the next issue is, what might have happened if he continued to play?

2. What is Wilt continued to play? Well, this should blow your mind. If you look at Wilt's final 3 season (1971-73) he had a total Win Shares of 46.6. To put that in perspective, it is not only the most win shares by any player in the final three years of his career (and by a long shot), it is better than James Harden has done the last three years, who leads the league in the stat the last three years by a mile. In the last 3 years, Harden has 45.6 win shares. Wilt was better his last three years then the MVP Harden his last three years when he won an MVP one year and was a finalist 2 other years. Wilt was dominating his last three years. And his last year was 18.5!! Amazing. This leads one to believe that Wilt could have played 3,4,5 or 6 more years and blown away Kareem's total. Here are some examples of final three years. Bill Russell -- 31.2, David Robinson -- 28.2, Jerry West -- 27.1 -- Michael Jordan -- 25.3, Oscar Robertson -- 22.6. One special mention here should be that Magic Johnson (35.5) and Bob Pettit (36.3) had stellar final 3 years but both had careers ended at near or just past their prime, Pettit after 11 years and Johnson after 13 years. Again, Wilt's last three seasons was not only the best ever by far of any NBA player ever, but better than the best current player over the last three seasons (Harden).

3. So let's take longevity rigorously out of it by normalizing against games played, in other words, divide the total Win Shares by total games played. Well, Wilt is not the best, but only barely behind Goerge Mikan. Mikan played only 7 seasons and was dominant. But he left in his prime. Clearly Mikan deserves some serious mention for being one of the best, most dominant players ever. But He falls short of Wilt. Wilt's 0.235 win shares per game played is almost 20% better than third place who happens to be a man named Jordan. Jordan's career was also shortcut and could have been far better had he not taken the year off. He also probably could have played a few more years but he was nowhere near as dominant as Wilt in his final years.

4. Finally the most common argument that virtually always comes up is that Wilt played against lesser talented players than Michael or or Lebron. I call BS on that. Consider this. When Wilt joined in 1960, there were only 8 teams in the league. When he left in 1963 it had doubled. But during his tenure, there average only about 11 teams. Also, there averaged only about 170 total players per season that logged at least some game time. Over the last 10 seasons there are 30 teams and about an average of 613 total players. That means that the talent today is far more diluted than yesteryear. Can you imagine having to play Bill Russell not 3 or 4 times per season but 11 or 12? I would argue that what today's player gain in athleticism is balanced by dilution.

The tables below show all the stats discussed above. For my money, Wilt is the best ever. Michael was clearly transcendent as is Lebron. Guys like Magic and Oscar and Kareem deserve tones of recognition as well. But for overall most dominat player to grace the hardwood, I vote for Wilt!!

Very great analysis. I was discussing this with my brother the other day and I think one of the most compelling things is still the changing of the rules to limit Wilt's effectiveness vs bending the rules to improve Michael's effectiveness. I think in the end it comes down to the fact as Wilt said nobody roots for Goliath, with Shaq being the only exception. I think that has much more to do with the NBA marketing strategy changing during the Magic v Bird years. Changing to be an individual personality marketing league rather than a team marketing league.

Three other reasons for Wilt often being down-graded compared to MJ.
1. The fewer people today that have any memories of Wilt. MJ had the advantage of the beginning of modern day TV sports coverage.
2. While Wilt won some Championships, his teams were felt to have under archived in that area. Some have blamed him.
3. Racism. Wilt was often portrayed as the intimidating angry black man and his supposed sexual exploits did not help his reputation. In Wilt's time, especially early in his career, college ad pro BB was transitioning from a white sport. Wilt changed that. But the rules changes, I think, had a racial element to them.

Just my thoughts. Rebuttals anyone?

WORD . . . . 'nuff said.


RC

I admit that I was too young to watch Wilt in his prime, but I've taken an interest in him over the past few years and the deeper I dig, the more impressive he is.

No doubt, Jordan was an amazing player and ONE of the best ever. But NOBODY can touch Wilt.

Let's start with Exhibit A: Most point scored in a game. Ok, WIlt got 100 once. But look at this list: en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_National_B...game_scoring_leaders

Wilt not just has the 100 point game, but of games where somebody scored 60 or more, Wilt did it 32 times. Jordan did it 5 times and his best was 69 points. Wilt exceed 69 six times. So Wilt exceeded Jordan's highest score 6 times...more than Jordan scored 60+ by one. In fact, going over 69 has only happened 59 times, so Wilt holds 54% of those slots. The next best was Kobe who broke 60 six times, or about 1/5th as often as Wilt. Still not convinced? How many 3 pointers did Wilt have? Yep zero. They didn't have it when he played. Convert Kobe or Jordan's top games to "total field goals" or get rid of the 3's and Wilt will only look better.

What about other aspects of the game? Wilt had over 23,000 rebounds. Next up was Russell who was about 2000 back. Kareem was next, but was 7 THOUSAND behind Wilt. Ok, if you miss a shot, you want Wilt on your team.

But wait, Jordan was also really good at baseball. Ok, Wilt was a natural athlete. He had a 40" vertical, was a track star, and could put literally everyone to shame in the weight room (Google Arnold Schwarzenegger's comments on Wilt from when they filmed Conan the Barbarian about Wilt's prowess lifting weights).

Wilt was arguably the best athlete ever. PERIOD. That's it. Happy to debate this all day long. You could make an argument that some were close, but NOBODY exceeded him.

To wind this up just a reminder that Wilt never shot a 3 pointer and they changed rules in the game to try and slow Wilt down. Jordan was really really good, but Wilt would have mopped the floor with him without breaking a sweat.

I've always worshipped Wilt and my place is replete with pictures of his days here in the Bay Area. Wilt was THE MAN!!

Having said that, I think he had his hands full with Grace Jones.


RC

You speak of Wilt's athleticism. Here are some highlights of his athletic career. Mind-boggling for a 7'2" man.

(take these with a smidgen grain of salt)
-- Won Big 8 high jump his junior year of college
-- At age 60 ran a 50-mile Canadian race
-- Supposedly bench pressed 500 pounds when working with Arnold Schwartzenegger
-- Placed 3rd in Big 7 in triple jump at 45'9"
-- Supposedly ran the 440 in HS in Philly in 49 seconds and 880 in 1:58.3 seconds

Here is what is not subject to question
Wilt played in 1045 regular season games in his 14 year career. In those games he average 45.8 minutes per game. Only 4 players have averaged over 39 minutes per game (Wilt-45.8, Bill Russell-42.3, Oscar Robertson-42.2, and Jerry West-39.2). Talk about iron man!! And in those 1045 games, he never fouled out. Not once. Even considering his 1970 season when he played only 12 games due to injury, he averaged playing 3,419 minutes per year. That is almost 10% better than 2nd place, Oscar Robertson at 3,135 minutes per year. Lebron James is at 2,890 and Michael was 2,734.

Now finally. There have been 48 players who entered the league at age 19 and played at least 8 season. The average Win shares in the first 4 seasons for those players is 3.8 per year. The average for years 5-8 is 5.7. That means the first 4 seasons was 66.5% as good as the next four season. If you take that ratio and apply to Wilt, since he did not enter the league until age 23, he would have accumulated 53.0 win shares in those 4 years. That would give him a total of 300.2 win shares.

One final way to look at win shares is per 48 minutes played. Wilt (0.248) falls to third behind David Robinson (0.250), Michael Jordan (0.250). This issue of who is the greatest will always have a huge component of personal bias but I defy anyone to make as compelling an argument for any other player.

That's my story and I am sticking to it.

More fun facts...

He never fouled out of an NBA regular season or playoff game.

968 double-doubles, with streaks of 227, 220, and 133 (1st, 2nd, and 3rd longest streaks in NBA history).

Also the only guy to ever get a double-QUADRUPLE (2 categories, 40+ in each). Oh yeah, he did it 8 times.

Here's another site with a list of records held by Wilt. en.wikipedia.org/wiki/List_of_career_ach..._by_Wilt_Chamberlain
He was an awesome player!!!!

Taking nothing away from Michael Jordan's talent, ability, and performance, he was skilled at clearing out defenders with his right arm/hand, giving him space to make the shot. He was so skilled at hiding this that referees often couldn't see it.

Wilt, with his height and athleticism, needed no such subterfuge.

Wilt also perfected a fadeaway and a decent hook shot. At 7 feet tall with as much jumping ability as anybody who ever played, you're talking about shots that are released with a trajectory that is quite literally unblockable. Say the release point was at 10 feet, but with a fade or a hook, the ball is at 13 feet before it even gets to the defender's horizontal position. Nobody's blocking that stuff. Ever.