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Rock Chalk Talk: Basketball
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Anything pertaining to basketball: college, pro, HS, recruiting, TV coverage
Who's the best tourney coach ever?
5 years 2 weeks ago #22526
by CorpusJayhawk
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
There are a lot of ways you can measure NCAA Tournament performance. Let's look at a few.
1. Winning %
2. Games won
3. Net Probable wins
4. Net seed wins
5. National Championships
These third and fourth require a little explanation.
Net Probable Wins: If you look at the average probability of any given seed beating another seed you arrive at a table that has the probability of all 16 seeds against all 16 seeds. The table is below. If you look at each coaches actual path through the tournaments and assign these probabilities for each actual game played you come up with the "Total Probable Wins." Then you subtract this from the actual wins for that coach to come up with the Net Probable Wins. This is how many more or fewer games a coach has won than he should have given his actual seed matchups. This obviously only applies post 1978 since the seeding came in in 1979. So the great coaches pre-1970 will not have this metric.
Net Seed Wins -- This is the expected wins that each seed should have. It is a table showing the probability of each seed winning in each round and hence the total wins a seed should expect in a given tournament. For instance, a No. 1 seed should win 3.3 games on average, while a No. 2 seed is expected to win 2.74 games. The table for expected wins by round by seed is below.
So let's see how the 710 coaches who have coached in the NCAA Tournament have fared.
Winning %
Here are the top 50 coaches in terms of winning %. Coach Self is 36th.
Games Won
This obviously will favor the more recent coaches. Here are the top 50 in games won.
Net Probable Wins
This is an important stat. This really starts to separate the men from the boys in terms of tournament performance. Here are the top 50. Chris Beard is off to a great start. In 3 tournament appearances he has Net Probable Wins total of 3.4 good for 13th overall. Rollie Massimino and Tom Izzo are the kings of this stat. Self, BTW, has -1.6 Net Probable Wins.
Net Seed Wins
This is also an important stat. Izzo and Pitino really rise to the top with this stat. Again, Chris Beard is on a phenomenal trajectory in this stat. In 3 tourneys, he has a Net Seed Wins of 4.9. That is almost 1.7 games per year more than his seed would expect.
National Championships
Exactly 50 coaches have won National Championships, Tony Bennett obviously being the 50th. 15 coaches have won 2 or more. 6 coaches have won 3 or more. Obviously Wooden, with 10, leads the pack followed by Coach K with 5.
Finalists
Wooden -- 10 National Championships. Never lost a final game. Tops among coaches with 5 or more appearances in win%. 10-2 in the Final Four. 47 wins in 16 appearances.
Coach K -- 5 NC's and a 5-9 record in NC games. 9-3 in the FF. 2.6 Net Probable Wins and 5.3 Net Seed Wins. 87 wins (most all-time) in 35 appearances.
Roy Williams -- 3 NC's. 3-3 in NC games and 6-3 in FF games. 79 wins (2nd most) in 29 appearances. 4.9 net probable wins and 6.6 net seed wins.
Adolph Rupp -- 4 NC's and 4-1 in NC games. 5-1 in FF games. 30 wins in 20 appearances.
Jim Calhoun -- 3 NC's and 3-0 in NC games. 3-1 in FF games. 71 wins in 23 appearances. 4.4 net probable wins (6th best) and 9.0 net seed wins (5th best).
Tom Izzo -- 1 NC and 1-1 in NC games. 2-6 in FF games. Astounding 7.9 Net Probable wins and 14.5 net seed wins.
1. Winning %
2. Games won
3. Net Probable wins
4. Net seed wins
5. National Championships
These third and fourth require a little explanation.
Net Probable Wins: If you look at the average probability of any given seed beating another seed you arrive at a table that has the probability of all 16 seeds against all 16 seeds. The table is below. If you look at each coaches actual path through the tournaments and assign these probabilities for each actual game played you come up with the "Total Probable Wins." Then you subtract this from the actual wins for that coach to come up with the Net Probable Wins. This is how many more or fewer games a coach has won than he should have given his actual seed matchups. This obviously only applies post 1978 since the seeding came in in 1979. So the great coaches pre-1970 will not have this metric.
Net Seed Wins -- This is the expected wins that each seed should have. It is a table showing the probability of each seed winning in each round and hence the total wins a seed should expect in a given tournament. For instance, a No. 1 seed should win 3.3 games on average, while a No. 2 seed is expected to win 2.74 games. The table for expected wins by round by seed is below.
So let's see how the 710 coaches who have coached in the NCAA Tournament have fared.
Winning %
Here are the top 50 coaches in terms of winning %. Coach Self is 36th.
Games Won
This obviously will favor the more recent coaches. Here are the top 50 in games won.
Net Probable Wins
This is an important stat. This really starts to separate the men from the boys in terms of tournament performance. Here are the top 50. Chris Beard is off to a great start. In 3 tournament appearances he has Net Probable Wins total of 3.4 good for 13th overall. Rollie Massimino and Tom Izzo are the kings of this stat. Self, BTW, has -1.6 Net Probable Wins.
Net Seed Wins
This is also an important stat. Izzo and Pitino really rise to the top with this stat. Again, Chris Beard is on a phenomenal trajectory in this stat. In 3 tourneys, he has a Net Seed Wins of 4.9. That is almost 1.7 games per year more than his seed would expect.
National Championships
Exactly 50 coaches have won National Championships, Tony Bennett obviously being the 50th. 15 coaches have won 2 or more. 6 coaches have won 3 or more. Obviously Wooden, with 10, leads the pack followed by Coach K with 5.
Finalists
Wooden -- 10 National Championships. Never lost a final game. Tops among coaches with 5 or more appearances in win%. 10-2 in the Final Four. 47 wins in 16 appearances.
Coach K -- 5 NC's and a 5-9 record in NC games. 9-3 in the FF. 2.6 Net Probable Wins and 5.3 Net Seed Wins. 87 wins (most all-time) in 35 appearances.
Roy Williams -- 3 NC's. 3-3 in NC games and 6-3 in FF games. 79 wins (2nd most) in 29 appearances. 4.9 net probable wins and 6.6 net seed wins.
Adolph Rupp -- 4 NC's and 4-1 in NC games. 5-1 in FF games. 30 wins in 20 appearances.
Jim Calhoun -- 3 NC's and 3-0 in NC games. 3-1 in FF games. 71 wins in 23 appearances. 4.4 net probable wins (6th best) and 9.0 net seed wins (5th best).
Tom Izzo -- 1 NC and 1-1 in NC games. 2-6 in FF games. Astounding 7.9 Net Probable wins and 14.5 net seed wins.
Don't worry about the mules, just load the wagon!!
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5 years 2 weeks ago #22534
by HawkErrant
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
Without reading your post my immediate “Ooh, ooh, me! Me!” answer was John Wooden.
Reading your post just confirmed the obvious.
The question of who is #2 is much more interesting.
K has more titles, but Rupp and Calhoun were dominating once their teams made the FF, each losing just once in the FF, and Calhoun never in the NC.
Knew Bill was not going to fare well in this analysis. He’s still my guy, though, and like Wooden, Calhoun, Roy and even arguably K, he has just entered the stage in his career where major tournament success occurs. Hope it comes to him.
Reading your post just confirmed the obvious.
The question of who is #2 is much more interesting.
K has more titles, but Rupp and Calhoun were dominating once their teams made the FF, each losing just once in the FF, and Calhoun never in the NC.
Knew Bill was not going to fare well in this analysis. He’s still my guy, though, and like Wooden, Calhoun, Roy and even arguably K, he has just entered the stage in his career where major tournament success occurs. Hope it comes to him.
"Travel is fatal to prejudice, bigotry and narrow-mindedness, and many of our people need it sorely on these accounts. Broad, wholesome, charitable views of men and things cannot be acquired by vegetating in one little corner of the earth all one's lifetime." - Mark Twain "Innocents Abroad"
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