Why they will leave

KU Sports just ran an article predicting next year's roster. Rather than doing my own predictions, I thought I would give my reasons why certain players might leave. Primarily, I don't see any current player being a lottery pick, nor even a sure first rounder. Those who leave will do so because:

1. Lawson: Can't improve on a double/double season. His stats in both are likely to go down next year with Big Mac taking space down low, and hopefully Hurt coming in. Leaving at the pinnacle of his college career will get him a job, even as a second rounder or G League player. He will now focus full time on his game and see where it goes (which will be a recurring theme here).

2. Grimes: Can't believe he could go pro, but his lackluster year has so far been said by some is a result of him being a freshman taking a longer transition time to the college game. He can rely on his lingering hype as a OAD lottery guy, and hope to get a job and work full time on his game. Can't risk the Malik Newman situation where multiple years in college PROVED he wasn't a lottery or first round guy. Grimes has to strike while there is still a little hype about his size, strength, shooting form, etc. He's a G League guy who might blossom in a couple years like Selden.

3. Dok: Wont' get any better shooting from outside three feet, and risks yet another injury that either ends his career, or deems him "broken" and too big a financial risk to take a chance on. While the pro game is no longer about a beast inside who has no skill outside the lane, big bodies like him are still hard to find and he'll get at least one contract from someone. And, he can work full time on his game and hopefully make money before his body gives out.

4. Moore: the writing is on the wall, and playing time with OA emerging will be tough. When he played he showed some ego, which won't allow him to sit the bench again. He will find a place where he can shoot at will without repercussion.

5. KJ Lawson: who knows. He could be the surprise breakout guy next year with more playing time. But he's graduating and getting married, so a transfer that would get him immediate eligibility and be more conducive to family life might see him leaving.

6. DeSousa: who knows. If eligible he'll stay. If not, he's gone somewhere. Sad situation.

It would be fantastic to see all these guys stay, but for our big name guys, I just don't see another year of college helping their pro prospects. And in some cases, another year could really hurt their prospects.

Wonder when we'll know??

Rock Chalk.

Well, here's my wild guess (in order from likely to unlikely)

1.) Silvio. Sadly I think it's a done deal. The NCAA wanted to hammer KU and Silvio was the most convenient nail. Completely unfair, but I don't see the NCAA reinstating him early and with that likelihood, I don't see him riding pine for another full season at KU when he can showcase his skills for a paycheck someplace else. Makes me angry just typing this.

2.) Dedric: he's clearly the most NBA ready guy on the team, BUT he's not making much noise on the draft boards. If he goes, he is unlikely to make an NBA roster at this point. Why I think he stays: his prospects are slim if he leaves, yet if he returns and we have depth in the post (Dok and McCormack), Dedric will get to play the 4 all year. This year he had to play too much at center and we depended on him too much for points. Put him at the 4 and he'll still get 10+ a night, but he'll get to play away from the basket and his double-doubles might involved assists instead of rebounds. He'll test the waters and come back.

3.) Dok: he'd get drafted, but he'd improve his stock if he could finish a full season of college ball. Somebody with his size and strength doesn't get skipped over in the draft, but I think he should get a full season in to prove that he's not fragile.

4.) Grimes: the only way he leaves is if he transfers. He has NO chance in the draft. I'm still convinced that "something" happened. Go look at his youtube reels pre-KU, I'll wait. OK, as you can see, he was somehow faster, had more lateral agility and more hop before he came to KU. If that "something" is a KU-related thing, he'll transfer. If it's not something specific to KU, he'll be back and he'll be much better.

5.) Moore: Not going to the NBA. Not going to get much more playing time here. Doesn't want to lose yet another year of eligibility. He's played 2 seasons in 3 years, so he has 2 years of eligibility left and 2 years to use them. If I were him, I'd hit the books and graduate next year. He'll ride pine at KU, but will get SOME minutes. After '19/'20 he can graduate transfer someplace else where he'll fit in and maybe get more minutes. I don't see the NBA in his future, so having the transfer option after next season allows him to stay with the team, or go where he'll get some playing time.

Honestly, aside from Silvio, I think they'll all be back.

Konza, I'm with you on Grimes, but I'm self mandating a more chipper attitude. I tend to get a little down when the season doesn't go as planned, and this year I said some negative (though I believe accurate) things about Grimes. I'm trying to avoid that again.

If Grimes could get drafted on potential alone, then why wouldn't OA go out this year too? OA's ceiling appears much higher than Grimes.

Moore is the one in the toughest position, IMHO.

According to the NCAA, it's my understanding that you get 4 years of eligibility and 5 years to use them.

Here's Moore's career to date:
Year 1: Played at Cal.
Year 2: Came to KU and sat out per NCAA rules.
Year 3: Played at KU. 2 years of eligibility left, 2 years to use them.

OPTION 1: Stay
Year 4: Play at KU. One year of eligibility left, 1 year to use it.
Year 5: Play at KU: Last year used, 4 years of playing in 5 years.

OPTION 2: Transfer
Year 4: Transfer to TBD. Sit out per NCAA rules.
Year 5: Play at TBD. Last year. Played 3 years at 3 schools over 5 years.

Of these two, he's faced with the option of playing limited minutes at KU for 2 years, or leaving and sitting for another year. Neither of these paths is a path to the NBA. I do think that staying for 2 more years at KU might be enough for him to become a "fan favorite" at KU. Right now, I think he's fairly likeable, but we don't know him very well. After 3 seasons, even if he's not a big minute player, if he's a good guy, KU fans will embrace him.

The only 3rd option that makes sense to me is if he's somehow accumulated enough hours in his 3 years of school to finish up over the summer and then transfer without sitting out. I have no idea what kind of student he is, or if he had AP credits to help him out. It's possible that he could have used is year sitting out to get ahead academically to give him more free time in his senior year.