predictions for Auburn game

22 points above expectation.  Best performance of the season for Kansas.  A
statistical fluctuation, or was Northeastern overrated, or are the Jayhawks
finally adjusting to the complement of players they have?  Well, with 30+
games under their belts, it's hard to claim that the Huskies were overrated.
The computer ratings are pretty stiff at this time of the season, with a lot
of data to back them up.  We'll know more after the next game if it was just
a statitical fluctuation.  But we can all hope that the Jayhawks are figuring
out how to play with the people they have, though it would be a bit of a
coincidence for it all to come together precisely at the time of the first
NCAA Tournament game.

It doesn't get much closer than this.  Auburn is #11 and Kansas is #12 in
Sagarin's Overall rating.  Kansas is #11 and Auburn is #12 in Sagarin's
Predictor rating, which is the basis for my calculations.  Yes, the results
from the Round of 64 games were enough to flip the sign on the predicted
margin, and now Kansas is favored by 0.04 points by Predictor, while the
Jayhawks are the underdog by 0.22 points according to the overall ratings.
Kansas is favored by 1.46 points using the Golden Mean method, but Auburn
is a solid 9.55 point favorite according to the Recent Games method, which
is enough to tip the average in favor of Auburn by 0.43 points.  Can you say
overtime?  Sagarin's eigenvector analysis is the most optimistic for Kansas,
who is favored by 5.26 points.  With few exceptions, the prognosticators are
expecting a one-possession affair.  But recall that the average error in
their margin predictors is at least 9.1 points.

Garrett has the flu, but Self thinks he'll be ready to play.  He's been
quarantined from the rest of the team, so hopefully nobody else has
developed symptoms.  Dotson's ankle appears to be okay.  It was a
little sore Friday morning, but he was able to return in the Northeastern
game, so it's nothing major.

The trends for both teams are not statistically significant, and although
the negative mental toughness ratings are significant, they are virtually
identical, so the net effect is a mere 0.05 points, with Kansas being a
0.025 point favorite.  See why I said it doesn't get much closer than this?

Kansas now has a 50 percent chance of reaching the Sweet Sixteen, a 7 percent
chance of reaching the Final Four, and a 0.5 percent chance of a national
championship.

Rock Chalk!

                       Kansas              Auburn
Performance      =  +0.03                 +1.41
Inconsistency    =   9.88                 11.53
Trend            =  -0.05 +/-  0.17       -0.15 +/-  0.19
Mental toughness =  -0.39 +/-  0.23       -0.40 +/-  0.21
Offense          =  75.37                 78.51
Defense          =  69.94                 69.17
Total points     = 145.31                147.69
Scoring margin   =   5.43                  9.34

Note that my offense and defense numbers correct for home court, which
is why there is a slight difference with Greenfield's numbers below.

Greenfield Stats Comparison
===========================
Offensive Stats     AU      KU       Defensive Stats       AU      KU
Points/Game         78.9    75.7     Opp Points/Game       68.8    69.6
Avg Score Margin   +10.0    +6.1     Opp Effective FG %   51.9%   47.4%
Assist/Game         14.3    13.3     Off Rebounds/Gm       10.1     9.3
Total Rebouds/Gm    33.5    38.2     Def Rebounds/Gm       20.3    26.3
Effective FG %      54.2    52.6     Blocks/Game            4.7     3.9
Off Rebound %       30.8    28.5     Steals/Game            9.3     6.8
FTA/FGA            0.312   0.325     Personal Fouls/Gm     18.5    16.9
Turnover %         14.9%   16.0%

Common Opponents
================
There are three common opponents, namely Kentucky, who Auburn played twice,
Tennessee, who Auburn also played twice, and New Mexico State, giving us
five scores to compare:

KU   -8 UK  on road ( -4 neutral court)     KU   -8 UK  on road ( -4 neutral court)
Aub  -2 UK  at home ( -6 neutral court)     Aub -27 UK  on road (-23 neutral court)
KU   +2 Aub neutral ( +2 neutral court)     KU  +19 Aub neutral (+19 neutral court)

KU   +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU   +6 Ten neutral ( +6 neutral court)
Aub  +4 Ten at home (  0 neutral court)     Aub +20 Ten neutral (+20 neutral court)
KU   +6 Aub neutral ( +6 neutral court)     KU  -14 Aub neutral (-14 neutral court)

KU   +3 NMS at home ( -1 neutral court)
Aub  +1 NMS neutral ( +1 neutral court)
KU   -2 Aub neutral ( -2 neutral court)

Three of the comparisons favor Kansas, while two favor Auburn, unless you consider
the Sprint Center to be a neutral court.  Some of the prognosticators would call
the Sprint Center a "semi-home" game and allow half the usual home court advantage,
in which case the New Mexico State comparison would be a wash.  Anyway, the average
is 2.2 points in favor of Kansas, but with a scatter of 12.0 points.

Players to Watch
================
most minutes       Jared Harper (guard)
most points        Bryce Brown (guard)
most rebounds      Chuma Okeke (forward)
most assists       Jared Harper (guard)
most steals        Chuma Okeke (forward)
most blocks        Austin Wiley (center)
most turnovers     Jared Harper (guard)
most fouls         Anfernee McLemore (forward)

                                                          26-9            27-9
                       Margin   Predicted   Win Prb      Kansas          Auburn
Predictor              points     Score     percent   Rating   SOS    Rating   SOS 
====================   ======   =========   =======   =============   =============
Sagarin Overall         -0.22   75   76                # 12   #  1     # 11   # 21 
Sagarin Predictor       +0.04   76   75.5     50.1     # 11   #  1     # 12   # 21 
Sagarin Golden Mean     +1.46   76   75                # 10   #  1     # 15   # 21 
Sagarin Recent Games    -9.55   71   80                # 24   #  1     #  1   # 21
Sagarin Eigenvector     +5.26   78   73       69       
Massey                  -1.00   74   75       48       # 16   #  3     # 11   # 29
Pomeroy                 -0.77   73   74                # 16   #  1     # 13   # 22
Greenfield              -2.50   72.5 75                # 13   #  5     # 11   # 18
Dunkel                  -4.50   75   80                # 13            # 16       
Vegas (via Dunkel)      -2.00   73   75                                           
Dolphin Predictive      -2.45   73   76       41.6     # 21   # 10     # 12   # 27
Real Time               -1.00   70   71       49.8     # 12   #  1     # 20   # 21 
Seven Overtimes         +2.00   74   72       67       #  4   #  3     # 15   # 10
DPPI                                                   #      #        #      #    
ESPN BPI                -0.70                 47.3     # 18   #  3     # 12   # 37
Whitlock                +2.12                          # 11   #  1     # 18   # 50
Colley Matrix           +4.23                          #  9   #  1     # 17   # 18
NCAA NET                                               # 20            # 18
common opponents        +2.20                                                                     
====================   ======   =========   =======   ============    ============ 
average                 -0.43   73.9 75.2   151.04
scatter                  3.43    2.2  2.6

Here is Kansas' season, with potential future opponents selected from the
higher seed:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
NEUT   #  4 Michigan State              92  87    -4.83    +9.83
HOME   # 88 Vermont                     84  68   +13.92    +2.08
HOME   #165 Louisiana                   89  76   +20.35    -7.35
NEUT   # 23 Marquette                   77  68    +2.76    +6.24
NEUT   #  8 Tennessee                   87  81    -1.87    +7.87
HOME   #107 Stanford                    90  84   +15.60    -9.60
HOME   # 37 Wofford                     72  47    +7.78   +17.22
HOME   # 58 New Mexico State            63  60   +11.14    -8.14
HOME   # 17 Villanova                   74  71    +4.60    -1.60
HOME   #214 South Dakota                89  53   +23.36   +12.64
AWAY   # 51 Arizona State               76  80    +4.01    -8.01
HOME   #163 Eastern Michigan            87  63   +20.21    +3.79
HOME   # 27 Oklahoma                    70  63    +6.52    +0.48
AWAY   # 14 Iowa State                  60  77    -2.40   -14.60
HOME   # 42 TCU                         77  68    +8.47    +0.53
AWAY   # 40 Baylor                      73  68    +2.12    +2.88
HOME   # 30 Texas                       80  78    +6.74    -4.74
AWAY   # 65 West Virginia               64  65    +5.97    -6.97
HOME   # 14 Iowa State                  80  76    +3.84    +0.16
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    63  71    -5.62    -2.38
AWAY   # 30 Texas                       63  73    +0.50   -10.50
HOME   #  9 Texas Tech                  79  63    +1.65   +14.35
AWAY   # 20 Kansas State                67  74    -0.74    -6.26
HOME   # 72 Oklahoma State              84  72   +12.71    -0.71
AWAY   # 42 TCU                         82  77    +2.23    +2.77
HOME   # 65 West Virginia               78  53   +12.21   +12.79
AWAY   #  9 Texas Tech                  62  91    -4.59   -24.41
HOME   # 20 Kansas State                64  49    +5.50    +9.50
AWAY   # 72 Oklahoma State              72  67    +6.47    -1.47
AWAY   # 27 Oklahoma                    68  81    +0.28   -13.28
HOME   # 40 Baylor                      78  70    +8.36    -0.36
NEUT   # 30 Texas                       65  57    +3.62    +4.38
NEUT   # 65 West Virginia               88  74    +9.09    +4.91
NEUT   # 14 Iowa State                  66  78    +0.72   -12.72            cumulative
NEUT   #106 Northeastern                87  53   +12.27   +21.73            probability
NEUT   # 12 Auburn                                +0.04             0.501   0.501
NEUT   #  5 North Carolina                        -4.66             0.328   0.164
NEUT   #  6 Kentucky                              -2.50             0.414   0.068
NEUT   #  3 Virginia                              -5.92             0.286   0.019
NEUT   #  1 Duke                                  -7.20             0.246   0.005

Here is Auburn's season:

SITE   OPPONENT                         SCORE    PREDIC    ERROR    PROB.
----   -----------------------------   -------   ------    -----    -----
HOME   #211 South Alabama              101  58   +23.19   +19.81
HOME   # 47 Washington                  88  66    +9.51   +12.49
Div2        Mississippi College        103  52
NEUT   # 59 Xavier-Ohio                 88  79    +8.03    +0.97
NEUT   #  1 Duke                        72  78    -7.24    +1.24
NEUT   # 63 Arizona                     73  57    +8.65    +7.35
HOME   #309 Saint Peter's               99  49   +29.34   +20.66
HOME   #344 NC Asheville                67  41   +35.81    -9.81
HOME   # 67 Dayton                      82  72   +12.20    -2.20
NEUT   #152 UAB                         75  71   +16.25   -12.25
AWAY   # 29 NC State                    71  78    +0.27    -7.27
HOME   # 55 Murray State                93  88   +10.70    -5.70
HOME   #204 North Florida(UNF)          95  49   +22.68   +23.32
AWAY   # 46 Mississippi                 67  82    +3.13   -18.13
HOME   #101 Georgia                     93  78   +14.78    +0.22
AWAY   # 77 Texas A&M                   85  66    +6.73   +12.27
HOME   #  6 Kentucky                    80  82    +0.58    -2.58
AWAY   # 71 South Carolina              77  80    +6.42    -9.42
AWAY   # 25 Mississippi State           84  92    -0.25    -7.75
HOME   # 73 Missouri                    92  58   +12.77   +21.23
HOME   # 57 Alabama                     84  63   +11.08    +9.92
HOME   # 24 Florida                     76  62    +5.84    +8.16
AWAY   # 21 LSU                         78  83    -0.64    -4.36
HOME   # 46 Mississippi                 55  60    +9.37   -14.37
AWAY   #113 Vanderbilt                  64  53    +9.65    +1.35
HOME   # 49 Arkansas                    79  56    +9.81   +13.19
AWAY   #  6 Kentucky                    53  80    -5.66   -21.34
AWAY   #101 Georgia                     78  75    +8.54    -5.54
HOME   # 25 Mississippi State           80  75    +5.99    -0.99
AWAY   # 57 Alabama                     66  60    +4.84    +1.16
HOME   #  8 Tennessee                   84  80    +1.21    +2.79
NEUT   # 73 Missouri                    81  71    +9.65    +0.35
NEUT   # 71 South Carolina              73  64    +9.54    -0.54
NEUT   # 24 Florida                     65  62    +2.72    +0.28
NEUT   #  8 Tennessee                   84  64    -1.91   +21.91
NEUT   # 58 New Mexico State            78  77    +7.98    -6.98
NEUT   # 11 Kansas                                -0.04             0.499